Peng Liyuan Under House Arrest? PLA Daily Hits Xi’s Biggest Pain! Cai Qi Overtakes Li Qiang

After the Trump-Xi summit concluded, observers were surprised to notice that Peng Liwan, who had previously maintained a highly visible public profile, was completely absent throughout the entire meeting. Some analysts believe this reflects an intentional effort by the Chinese authorities to keep her out of the spotlight. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping is reportedly facing his greatest fears within the military, while two of his subordinates are already vying for the position of successor. Peng Liwan's Puzzling Absence at the Trump-Xi Summit U.S.-based commentator Li Muyang said on his personal program that on May 14, when Donald Trump was welcomed at Beijing airport, Peng Liwan was nowhere to be seen. She was also absent when Trump and Xi Jinping toured the Temple of Heaven. That same evening, during the state banquet held in Trump's honor, she again did not appear at the head table. Chinese Premier Li Qian, Central Office Director Cai Qi, and Foreign Minister Wang Yi were all present. Even during the tea meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping at Zhongnanhai on May 15, Peng Liwan remained absent. In November 2017, when Trump and his wife visited China, Peng Liwan had accompanied the entire visit in a highly visible manner. During this year's state banquet speech on May 14, Trump specifically invited Xi Jinping and his wife, Peng Liwan, to visit the White House on September 24. Li Muyang pointed out that Trump invited the couple, rather than thanking Xi alone for hosting the banquet. Under normal diplomatic protocol, if Peng Liwan had indeed been seated at the head table, Trump would typically have thanked both of them for the hospitality. In fact, this was not the first time Peng Liwan had been absent from such a major diplomatic occasion. On October 30, 2025, when Xi Jinping traveled to South Korea to attend the 32nd formal APEC leaders' meeting and conduct a state visit, South Korean media had clearly reported that Peng Liwan would accompany him and meet with South Korea's First Lady. In the end, however, she did not appear. Instead, Cai Qi and Wang Yi accompanied Xi. By contrast, on July 3, 2014, during Xi Jinping's first visit to South Korea as China's president, Peng Liwan accompanied the entire trip, even separately visiting Changdeokgung Palace and shopping in Dongdaemun. Likewise, in November 2017, when Trump and the First Lady visited China, Peng Liwan joined Xi Jinping in accompanying them on a tour of the Forbidden City. Prior to that, during Xi's visits to Europe, Africa, and Latin America, Xi had almost always remained by his side. However, according to Li Mian, her consecutive absences from both the 2025 South Korea visit and the May 14, 2026 Trump-Xi summit, two of the highest level diplomatic events in succession, without any explanation from Chinese state media, means that this silence itself is the most noteworthy thing of all. Three Theories About Peng Liwan's Disappearance Some people speculate that Peng Liwan may have health problems. However, just a few months ago, she was still appearing publicly. According to information on the Chinese Foreign Ministry's website, on the morning of May 12, 2026, Peng Liwan, in her role as UNESCO's Special Envoy for the Advancement of Girls' and Women's Education, met with UNESCO Director-General Audrey Azoulay in Beijing. This suggests that her health likely is not a serious issue. Another theory says that her absence from all Trump-Xi summit activities was simply due to diplomatic matching protocol, since Trump's wife, Melania Trump, did not accompany him to China. However, commentator Li Muyang believes this explanation is not very convincing. In June 2013, then-South Korean President Pan Hae visited Beijing as an unmarried leader, yet Peng Liwan still joined Xi Jinping at the welcoming ceremony and even hosted a special luncheon for Park on June 28. Moreover, this Trump-Xi summit was hosted by China. Under normal diplomatic practice, the host country's first lady would usually appear at the state banquet. A third theory is that Peng Liwan's real status today is no longer simply that of first lady. Since 2018, she has reportedly served as a standing member of the Central Military Commission's Personnel Evaluation Committee, a position with significant influence inside the military system. In other words, her role within the Chinese Communist Party may have changed, making her softer public image as first lady less important. Li Muyang said, These are all just theories, but one thing seems clear. The Chinese authorities appear to be deliberately reducing Peng Liwan's public exposure. Rumors of Peng Liwan being under house arrest On May 15, Trump and Xi Jinping reportedly held a small-scale meeting inside Zhongnanhai. U.S.-based commentator Zhang Fen said Xi invited Trump into the inner compound of Zhongnanhai, essentially bringing him into the core area of his political power. Xi showed Trump ancient trees and blooming roses, yet Peng Liwan still did not appear. There are rumors claiming that since 2025, Peng Liwan has been under residential surveillance. According to these claims, she can only appear publicly with approval and otherwise is not allowed to show up. The rumored reason is that she may be connected to investigations involving the late former Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and Ma Xingui. On the evening of May 14, during the state banquet speech, Trump publicly invited Xi Jinping and Peng Liwan to visit the White House on September 24 this year. But the very next day, when Xi brought Trump into the inner compound of Zhongnanhai, Peng still did not appear. Zhang Fen argued that if Peng Liwan does not accompany Xi Jinping to the White House on September 24, or if Xi declines the visit altogether, it could signal that someone inside Zhongnanhai now has enough power to control the position of the first lady. He said Trump's invitation is almost like a test for the world to watch. By September 24, will Xi Jinping's power structure still be able to bring his wife, Peng Liwan, out in public? Some observers believe that Peng Liwan's complete absence from the Trump-Xi summit, despite being China's first lady, may be linked to internal power struggles at the highest levels of the Chinese Communist Party. Her repeated disappearances from public view may not simply be about matching Melania Trump's absence, but could also reflect a political situation where she no longer has full control over her own position. Xi Jinping's Greatest Fear In March, Xi Jinping visited the Xiongnan New Area but, unlike usual practice, did not inspect the local military garrison. In April, he traveled to Shanghai for meetings but again did not meet local military representatives. Why would the chairman of the Central Military Commission visit cities with military bases yet avoid the military itself? Because Xi Jinping is afraid. The people he fears are not ordinary citizens, but his own military. Back in 1971, before Lin Biao's downfall, Mao Zedong was also said to fear his own military. At the time, Mao left Beijing and spent a long period traveling across southern China before finally daring to return to the capital. Mao feared that military leaders might rebel. Today, the Chinese military shows no obvious signs of rebellion on the surface. So why is Xi Jinping still so afraid? He has even harshly targeted generals whom he personally promoted. If one uses the events of 1971 as a comparison, what kind of ending could Xi Jinping eventually face? Looking at the bigger picture, the trend Xi fears most is that senior military leaders are gradually drifting away from him collectively. According to Li Muyong, there are three pieces of evidence supporting this view. The first is the scale of the military purge. Since 2022, at least 36 generals have reportedly been purged while 65 officers have disappeared without explanation. A list circulating online claims that as many as 56 top generals are under investigation or missing. The scale of this crackdown, as mentioned earlier, is said to exceed even the Lin Biao incident. Furthermore, the May 7 sentence sentences handed to Wei Fengye and Li Shengfu were unusually severe. Suspended death sentences, life imprisonment, and no possibility of sentence reduction or early release. The punishment given to these two former defense ministers was reportedly even harsher than that of Guo Boxiong and Xu Kaihou in the past. Through such large-scale purges, Xi Jinping's real goal may be to intimidate others. So many high-ranking figures have been personally brought down by Xi himself. Naturally, those still in power will wonder whether they could be next. The second sign was a military newspaper article published on May 7 that called for leaders to keep an open mind, listen to honest opinions, and accept political criticism. According to Li Muyong, every line of the article was indirectly aimed at Xi The fact that it appeared in the PLA Daily suggests that there may already be forces within the military using subtle political language to openly resist Xi. If the purges represent Xi striking at the military, then this article could be viewed as the military striking back politically. The third point comes from exiled Australian-based scholar Yuan Hongbing, who revealed another possible reason behind the arrests of Wei Fengye and Li Shengfu. According to Yuan, both defense ministers privately believed that if China truly launched a war over Taiwan, the chances of failure would be extremely high. This claim cannot be independently verified. However, one point seems reasonable. If Wei Fengye and Li Shengfu really held such views, it would not be surprising. After all, few people understood the true condition of the Chinese military better than they did. Putting these factors together, it appears that the relationship of trust between Xi Jinping and his military may have been deeply damaged for quite some time. And beyond that, even Xi's own subordinates are now reportedly locked in fierce internal power struggles. Are Cai Qi and Li Cheng competing to become Xi Jinping's successor? As we know, Li Cheng is China's premier and, in theory, the second most powerful figure after Xi Jinping. But today, although Cai Qi is only ranked fifth on the Politburo's standing committee, his influence extends across the party, the government, the military, and the security apparatus. Cai Qi serves as the first secretary of the CCP Central Secretariat, overseeing the implementation of top leadership decisions and managing the Communist Party's massive day-to-day operations. At the same time as a standing committee member, he is also director of the The power and positions held by Cai Qi mean he controls not only Xi Jinping's daily schedule and information flow, but also who gets access to Zhongnanhai, the center of Chinese political power. More importantly, Cai Qi oversees the Central Guard Bureau, often described as the regime's imperial guard, responsible for protecting current and retired leaders. This organization also monitors and arrests senior officials and high-ranking military officers when necessary. In addition, Cai Qi controls China's propaganda and internet censorship systems, leads the newly established but highly powerful Central Social Work Department, and holds an important role within the National Security Commission, one of China's most secretive and powerful bodies. Cai Qi has even extended his reach into Li Cheng's territory. By convening meetings of top government secretaries, he reportedly brought the State Council's administrative secretariat under party control, significantly reducing Li Cheng's authority and leaving much of his power increasingly hollow. In reality, Cai Qi's enormous influence is not necessarily because of extraordinary governing ability, but because he perfectly fits the type of hardline official a totalitarian leader needs during times of crisis. Someone ruthless, absolutely loyal, and willing to carry out orders without hesitation. Xi Jinping needs someone like that, and Cai Qi, known as one of Xi's most loyal allies, became the obvious choice. However, not everyone within China's top leadership supports Cai Qi. Some are reportedly even trying to undermine him. There was previously a rumor that Cai Qi's political backyard had caught fire. According to the claim, Lin Fen, the son-in-law of Cai Qi's brother-in-law, allegedly acted as the white glove for telecom scam operations in Southeast Asia and for a vast underground money empire worth trillions of yuan. Rumors say he was secretly arrested in Singapore by agents sent by Chinese State Security Minister Chen Yixin. So far, however, none of these claims have been officially confirmed, and there is no independent way to verify them. According to insider reports, Chen Yixin secretly organized a 4,000-person special operations team based in Fujian province to recover as much as 1.5 trillion yuan in funds allegedly transferred overseas. Rumors claim that most of the money moved abroad passed through Hong Kong and Singapore, and that 85% of the money launderers in those locations were from Fujian. It is also said that the so-called Fujian clique used Southeast Asian casinos operated by Lin Fen's son-in-law to move wealth out of China and launder it into legal overseas assets. China is currently facing a severe shortage of foreign currency reserves and a weakening economy. In that situation, if members of the Fujian clique were still transferring large sums overseas, especially through people connected to Cai Qi's family, how would Xi Jinping view Cai Qi? Whether this was merely corruption or something Xi would see as outright betrayal, the arrest of Lin Fen's son-in-law would effectively strike at the financial lifeline of the entire Fujian clique and also cut off Cai Qi's escape route. So under current circumstances, it remains unclear whether Cai Qi or Li Qian would fall first. What do you think about these developments? Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments below. Thank you, and see you next time.