This is Very Bad

Dublin and it's actually a beautiful day here today lovely and sunny and unfortunately it isn't a sunny complexion for the global economy because despite the fact that Donald Trump had said around about 24 hours ago that the war was very close to ending and it was going to be wrapped up in maybe two weeks or three weeks he then did his address to the nation and things didn't quite come along as he said they would so what he did say was that over the next two to three weeks the war is going to intensify so the attacks on Iran are going to get significantly worse and he said that Iran would return to the stone age where they belong so that indicates that there's going to be an increase in the fighting an increase in targeting all of Iran's infrastructure he didn't actually say in the address that he was going to take out the desalination plants but certainly the electricity plants and some of the key things that are needed for the Iranian economy are right in target at the moment and what that's done is send the markets plummeting again so we've seen he said his address was actually after the US markets had closed so they didn't move officially but overnight we have seen the markets in Asia falling significantly so more than two three percent that sort of range and I think when we see all of the markets opening in Europe and the US we're going to see at least a fall of one maybe two percent possibly even further and oil prices are now back up to around about 107 dollars per barrel just to put that into perspective as I've mentioned many times before at the start of 2026 oil prices were at 60 dollars per barrel so even at a hundred dollars that's more than a 50 increase in a very short space of time and the difference to what we saw previously when Russia invaded Ukraine was that the spike in oil prices was only for a very short period for a matter of days whereas we've seen prices over a hundred dollars for weeks now and every day that the oil price is above a hundred dollars is damaging to the global economy because as we all know by now oil feeds into the price of everything it's not just gasoline and diesel and air fuel and everything else that you associate with transport and travel and vehicles we're also talking about raw materials for a variety of different industries we're talking about gas prices doubling in Europe since this conflict started and that's not going to turn around very quickly because the damage that's been caused by some of the Iranian retaliatory attacks where they've taken out 17 percent of Qatar's LNG capacity not just for this week for the next five years that's going to keep prices elevated for a long time and gas is used natural gas is used to generate electricity in Europe so the longer that this war goes on the higher prices will be for a long period of time and that's going to take profit out of a lot of companies balance sheets it's also going to mean that your pound and your dollar and your euro is not going to go as far because prices will go up inflation will be rising and when inflation rises as we know from simple economics the way that central banks usually deal with inflation to bring it back down is to increase interest rates increasing interest rates discourages people from taking on debt it discourages companies from taking on borrowing therefore they don't invest into new facilities expansion more staff so you have slower growth and that means that the economy slows down and then this becomes a really vicious circle because as we start to move to a slower global economy or even a global recession then central banks would want to lower interest rates to encourage people to spend and to try to kick start the economy but if you've got high inflation and you lower interest rates then that can actually fuel further inflation central banks could also increase the monetary supply like they did during the covid pandemic so printing more money in simple terms putting more money into the economy and if they do that we could find ourselves in a global situation where we've got simultaneous inflation and low growth or no growth and that is basically stagflation and that's a really difficult cycle to break out of because your key tool for changing things interest rates has already been dampened because it you can't really it's not working at that point so i think the overall summary of donald trump's speech yesterday was that the usa is really stuck in this war they would like to extract themselves i'm sure that a lot of people and in authorities in the u.s are saying can we just close that war down and go back to what we were doing before please can we just focus on growing the u.s economy but a war once you've started it it's quite difficult to stop particularly if you've got an opposition who isn't very happy and iran at the moment are extremely unhappy and as we talked about before the current authorities there the revolutionary guard are fighting for their lives literally so not just from political point of view and they know that israel and the usa fundamentally would like to see change in the way that iran is run so they would like to see new leaders come in and have somebody in there who is friendly towards the u.s and maybe strike some oil deals and agree not to develop any more nuclear weapons if they have been and all of those sort of things so the current leaders are not going to sign off on a deal where they're removed from power and then possibly all of them face prosecution so they are going to fight tooth and nail until they don't have any other choice so when donald trump says that over the next two to three weeks the war is going to intensify i think what this means is that there's going to be a big push now so israel and the us are going to try to take out key strategic targets in iran to basically get to the point where iran has to surrender iran is not going to want to surrender so it will only surrender if it doesn't have any other choice and what it will do most likely in the meantime is to start targeting infrastructure in other countries surrounding iran so we've already seen the lng facility in qatar was hit a number of tankers have been hit recently so we saw one in bahrain and one in dubai that potentially might happen further and the stranglehold on the strait of hummus is likely to strengthen so it's really the key tool that iran has to keep themselves in this war and at the negotiating table but iran has also said that they don't want to negotiate with the usa so how do you get an end to a war if the opposition is saying we're not going to sign off on any deal the only way is to basically obliterate them and i think that's what donald trump is intending to do but the knock-on consequence of that could be extremely bad for the global economy and for infrastructure in the gulf region so we could see further shortages in terms of the delivery of oil and gas and key raw materials like aluminium and helium and ammonium nitrate so there are lots of different parts of the global economy that are now starting to suffer badly and i think it's likely that over the next two to three weeks things are going to get worse because this war is really going to intensify so unfortunately even though the markets two days ago got all excited when donald trump said we're very close to the end now uh two to three weeks the markets are always looking at the optimistic view they are desperate for this war to end and so we see the markets going up stock markets rise oil prices fall and then reality sets in and everything goes back to where we were and i don't think even the current state of the markets in the current state of oil prices truly reflects what is going on right now and the damage that this is causing to the global economy so the longer it goes on the worse it's going to be the higher the chances of very slow growth or even a global recession happening in 2026 if this war carries on through the rest of april and goes only to may and june this could be absolutely devastating let's not forget we've got five countries actively involved in the war but we've also got a multitude of other countries being affected by drone attacks and missile attacks and every country in the world is affected by what's happening to oil prices and raw material prices and this is just an absolute man-made disaster that didn't really have to happen so once i'll give you a quick update just to bring everybody back to reality that despite the fact that the markets bounced up a couple of days ago they've now bounced back down again they're likely to continue going down oil prices likely to continue going up until we get a full resolution and there is no end in sight as it sits right now so hopefully you found that useful informative and interesting don't forget that i'm here in dublin with nas doing some really fun videos really interesting exciting stuff we've been to some amazing restaurants 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