2028 Hopefuls Who Leverage Their Impact in Midterms Will Emerge Stronger: Analyst

Welcome back and turning now to U.S. politics. Speculation about which Democratic nominees may be considering a 2028 presidential run is building after former Vice President Kamala Harris rebooted her last campaign's social media page. Recent polling also shows Harris among those leading Democrats and now Vice President J.D. Vance's leading Republicans. Who else is positioning themselves for the run and what are the chances? Joining us to discuss is Keith Naughton, Republican political consultant and the co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies. Good to have you with us today, Keith. How does Kamala Harris stand now for a Democratic primary? Well, right now she's the front runner. She's been the front runner for the last year or so. She's got the highest name recognition. Tens of millions of Democrats have voted for her twice now. So, you know, she's a very strong candidate from that standpoint. I don't think she's that good as a quality candidate. I mean, she kind of steps on her own words sometimes. She doesn't seem to have very good political sense at times. I mean, she's just not a natural in front of the camera. She's kind of awkward. I think she's got a weak team around her, but she checks all the identity boxes for the Democrats and she is well-known. So she's going to be a strong contender regardless of her flaws. Meanwhile, we see California Governor Gavin Newsom seem to be there was speculation since the very beginning about whether he's interested in running again for president. What are his strengths and weaknesses positioning him right now for the party's nomination? Well, I think he's very good with the media. I mean, he's very experienced, very smooth. He does have a lot of charisma. You know, there isn't a camera that he won't turn to, that he won't, there isn't anything he won't do to get in front of that camera, to get in front of people's faces. He's got a very experienced team around him. His problem is his substance. I mean, California has been a mess under his governorship. They've been losing, they've been having net out migration for every single year. That's never happened before. California has gained congressional seats ever since 1850 until he showed up. Now they're losing seats. They've got major deficits, problems with development. He's got a lot of policy challenges. So the question is whether the Democratic electorate are going to just go for the charisma and the flash. There's another problem that he has is he's an old white man and that doesn't really work in Democratic politics. It's kind of surprising that the elites, I guess maybe it's not surprising the Democratic elites are forming around him, but I think they might be missing something in the wider electorate. He does well with older people. He does well with white voters. Harris does much better with minority voters, much better with younger voters. So there's sort of this generational divide between the two of them. But right now it's a two person race between the two of them. And just last week, President Trump again named Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as very likely successors for the Republican Party. How do they currently match up? Well, Vance is by far the best contender. He's by far in lead of any polling. The question is what happens with the rest of the Trump administration? How do things shake out over the next two years? It's going to be very hard to dislodge Vance unless there are significant problems or he makes a significant misstep. I think Rubio is kind of waiting in the wings. He's having a pretty good administration from a foreign policy standpoint. I think the Trump administration has been mostly successful on that side, much more successful than it has been domestically and domestic policy, at least as far as public polling goes. So that helps with Rubio. But Vance is by far the leader. It's just a matter of whether he can kind of keep it together and if the administration has a good couple of years. And what kind of lessons would you offer each candidate going forward, say, from the last election, but also individually for their own positioning to help deliver victory on Election Day? Well, for Harris, I'd say fire everyone who works for you because they're pretty terrible. She needs a better team around her and she has to make a definitive break with Joe Biden. She's got to figure out a way that she can say, look, they kept me in the dark. I had nothing to do with all the terrible decisions. You know, I was just trying to be loyal. But you know what? He was terrible. It's time to turn the page. She has got to kick him to the curb. I think Newsom has to present himself. He's got to do better on the policy front. He's got to appeal better to a broader swath of people. And he's got to come up for a reason why California politics won't take over national politics. For Vance, I think he's got to be more public. He's been kind of quiet. I think he needs to be more forward, defending the president and getting out in front of a few specific issues, taking ownership of some of those stronger issues. I think it's a mistake for him to be quiet because he's also one of the best communicators in the administration. Amin Besant and Rubio are excellent communicators. He needs to be out there supporting the president more. I think that would help him a lot more. And I think it would help the president. And what do you think about Rubio's positioning? He's very public at this point. He is. And I think he is by necessity because there's so much foreign policy focus with this administration and security policy. I think he should keep doing what he's doing. As long as we're notching up successes, that's good. I think something that's going to help Rubio a lot is if Trump and Rubio can knock out this repressive Cuban regime supported by Russia and the CCP, if he can knock those folks out of power, then that is a huge victory. And I think that's going to be a big one in his column. And it's good for the Cuban people, I should add. Indeed. So the 2028 elections, of course, are quite far off in most people's awareness right now. 2026, we've still got the midterms just around the corner. How does all of this kind constellation positioning beginning potentially impact what goes on come November? And how does that impact 2028? Well, I think midterms are always very difficult for a first term president. So I think it's going to come down a lot to the economy. I think if inflation continues to cool down, and I think if the president can be more disciplined in his policy actions and his messaging, I think there can be some recovery there. I think the question becomes, can Harris or Newsom insert themselves in the Democratic off-year elections in a way that pushes their own message and they're able to take credit for it? Alternately, I think Vance needs to get out there and try to find some Republicans and he can help push over the finishing line. So the midterms will matter. It will matter depending on who can take credit for what wins and who gets blamed for what losses. And we'll be watching it closely. Thank you so much, Keith Naughton. Great to hear your insights. Thank you.