Forex Trading North American Preview 20th Nov

uh good afternoon guys just a little bit of a preview to this afternoon's us session and we got retail sales out in a few minutes um real choppy week uh as it has been since I've started here last week um the consolidation of the the non-fund payrolls move this week uh pretty much more of the same actually was I think a lot of people being chopped right up as the EUR has done all year um that moved yesterday to 10760 must have was caught a few people up on the back of some um um softer us interest rate um moves but again you know like I I'm still a dollar bull but uh it's job is all about timing um and trading is all about timing and will always be about timing so you've got to be you got to be pretty inable unless you got big pockets and you want to say short unless it breaks 111 and you're looking for parity um that's not really where we're at we're we're trading short term here so we got to try and figure out um we've had a little bit of a move down in the Euro this morning um Mario dragy talking again he doesn't disappoint um he's pretty much letting us know what he's going to do if uh the Euro Zone inflation doesn't start picking up I think he's made it very clear and people are quite well positioned um ahead that of course so with that move down from from down to 10660 is there's a bit of support technically down there now h of the weekend we're going to see an extensive move lower obviously not um we've tick back up and we've seen a bit of Euro Sterling ticking back up as well which is probably the main reason why the pound has been rejected at 153 um I think Sterling still looks fairly firm overall but you know going to the weekend avoiding event risk the market looks like it's clearly short of Euro Sterling um and they're just taking their shorts back you know look at the the last few days being pretty much sideways below that 7040 level that was where we were before super Thursday we went up to 72 I think around 72 retraced all there now we've traded quite comfortably below there I mean to me that's quite bearish I think you know interest rates differential still do point and stting out performance but you know we've got a really sticky level around here 70 bit of a psychological level so it looks like we're going do some more consolidation um who knows we might have squeeze back up to 7050 again but I still think that's pretty good sale um but all other things any any other changes especially with uh POS QE going up towards year end um how how long we got before dollar Canada well let's look at the Canada chart while we've got while we're here um as you can see that's very strongly correlated with all retail sales could be a mover markets very thin Friday afternoons um I don't think the Market's one with the other with dollar CAD it's been since this big move here um oil's been steadily steadily soft let's just have a look at the bigger picture on that um you know who's to say 40 is going to be bottom foror well obviously there's a bit of support there but you know there's a lot of some talk on the market that we're going to see $25 you know with the Middle East looking to squeeze out the people who are doing the fracking um it becomes uneconomical below below this level anyway to certainly take it out of the sea and taking out of shale as well so you know I think that's their their big long game is to squeeze all the other people out get all down $25 a barrel and then retake the market so if we're hitting that way then dollar CAD certainly going to be you can see how well correlated it is and I think we could H up towards 140 maybe I mean a couple years ago Dollar Care was tring 90 cents to the US so it's not called The Looney for nothing but um it's not something it's an easy one to trade dollar c um it does look like it's making a serious sort of move and you do have to have a view on well if you're going to trade it well as well but we'll see what happens in retail sales um what are we expecting uh retail sales. 2 Market seems consensus to be 07 you know I don't think it's going to be a massive mve there um look at our buddy the DX dollar Index choppy as you'd expect but that's that's financial markets that don't travel on straight lines so but we're still holding Above This sort of 984 level um I still like the dollar as I've been waxing on so far see no reason to change that view but um in terms of trading trading euros and dollar in um like I said you've got to choose your levels quite well um Euro well that squeeze to uh 10760 that would have caugh a lot of people out you know personally I would had a stop at 10750 like I didn't have a position at yesterday would been very disappointed walking into that loss um because this this sort of 4050 area topped out quite nasty obviously that looks interesting if we did have a spike back up there again there'll be something to sell into with a a fairly tight stop um around here no man's land really I mean I think you're looking for sport at 50 60 area to hold in the short term the trend still overall down but you know for this afternoon I think it's just safe to leave it the price action is not really telling us anything there uh Sterling we've already talked about still hasn't regained that level we were at before super Thursday which was 15ish um but again you know overall 150 160 or you know stering not much to write home about um and the friend the yin let's have a look at him 2 minutes before Canada retail s else I think the yen is in a fairly nice uptrend overall still um I'm not much of a cloud player but I guess if you're a Cloud Player this is quite bearish coming through the cloud and looking down here we could have a look down to 122 and a half this little trend line up here looks hovering around not a conducive Break um perhaps if we do open up on Monday down around here we might see a bit of a sell off and Dolly in so let's have a look at CAD trade around 1335 as we go in about 30 seconds to go but um then to Friday not extended move today um yeah I think keep your keep your position Square over the weekend perhaps and look to trade see what happens on if there's any events over the weekend that you know any more terrorist atro atrocities Etc okay looks like they Market bilon dollar car up just before yeah they look 20 points high now straight away after those figures that come out um minus .5 expecting 0.2 so that's not good obviously for the Looney um oil price is not good for the Looney uh so I've me to see some dollar out performance there anyway so um Good Luck this weekend and we'll see you Monday