Asia Forex Preview 1st Dec

hi Traders this is Brad with the Asian preview all right now just coming back into the markets as they reconnect from the uh from the weekend there's not a lot uh to get excited about at the moment there's been no major uh releases fundamentally anyway so and there's been you know all the talk is just about Syria us is loving the new um uh places the mediator as opposed to the aggressor now Equity just reconnecting down Point 2.1 for the S&P not much going on as you can see pretty much sideways activity here in the dollar Index slight uh upward bias that uh I'd say it's more sideways because once you come back over to the currencies now momentum you know has dissipated from last Friday now we are back into the uh normal stream of things and you can see there's a fair bit of um dollar weakness out here um well with the antipa Dan okay you got the Aussie back up here towards 7250 uh kiwi bounced pretty hard from 6520 up towards 66 uh the dollar against the Yen rallied super aggressively up to 123 s of 40 and then you've got Euro still dribbling off Sterling made a good uh little bounce in line with aie and kiwi and uh well I guess you could say dollar CAD came off but it's still within that bigger range and oil still uh bit of a headline there with that one so bit of a mixed bag okay as I've been saying the last couple of weeks or month Euro definite biased to the downside these other currencies bouncing though may give us an opportunity if they still continue to bounce um you know that's going to be a Dollar sell off and we may see a a an alternative bouncing Euro so keep an eye on that that's as we move forward into that European session later today now coming back into the um to the local session here we got the RBA uh interest rate announcement uh today so keep an eye on that the uh there some earlier numbers some building approvals numbers but it really comes down to the cash rate there is no expected change in the rate the uh talk and all the um well the bias from the central bank is definitely one of uh sitting put of this stage they've made it very clear over the last couple of weeks what we will have is probably better trading opportunities later in the week with uh GDP figures and retail sales figures giving us the next real Le in to the Aussie dollar so all you should be finding at the moment is it's a bit annoying these um sort of twoing and throwing range bound markets I tell you what the there's a always a slight little break to the downside there's one to the top side and if you're on the wrong side of it you end up with nursing a um saw head so just just keep an eye on things we're looking for that trade that uh does stand out uh a lot more than what these ones currently are and at the moment the Aussie we got resistance here at 7260 and support down here at 7180 so you know if anything the top side potentially looking for a sell it's going to come down to the RBA uh statement all right no changeing rates it always comes with the statement which is forward projection of uh what their intentions are now don't forget this is the December meeting they do not meet in January so they may try and uh put something in there to ruffle the market who knows but they do have two months to factor in here which is a little bit left field now coming over to the flightless bird it has broken up through 6570 here um and just sort of continued slightly towards the top side um and that's the Kiwi I mean I tell you about the Kiwi can be a nasty bit of gear yeah as you can see kiwian also um let's get that pen out also breaking to the top side that move in dollar Yen has taken a lot of the Yen crosses with it I'll come to that now just have a look at the Yen move first uh we're talking yesterday about um potentially looking for a buy and dips back towards this Cloud area I don't know well yeah was probably probably did get close enough you know I was just trying to think where that level was it probably in the low 60s if I was going off the trend line here as well so may have just missed that and uh you see that really strong move 6070 Point move to the top side you know it is mid-range a tough trade but this does a lot of things for um the uh Yen crosses okay just uh flick it over all right so a little bit unexpected too for sort of a Monday start to the week okay the Aussie we just had the trend line there as well it already sort of broken up through the cloud that's a pretty held pretty big move I to say a hell of a move um like 100 was that 20 30 points and same with kiwian these are big moves okay big Shakedown moves I can't see as an interest rate play at this point point but um as you can see a lot of the crosses have moved aggressively Euro Yen through that cloud this may take out a few week stop losses I'm waiting for to see some more down downward momentum here on Euro Yen with the Euro back towards that um uh if I just come back over here back to Euro back towards this resistance Line This is building up to to quite a nice trade now now once it gets close to these trend lines this is the time to concentrate and work out do we I mean I'm definitely looking to get short but the way this thing has been stalling down here we need something to give it an extra push otherwise what you'll see is the weekly cleanout where it sort of rallies takes out the stop losses where it stops maybe these highs um you look for it to get short up in these levels so it's a it's a now we're coming to Asia where Euro really isn't the focus we need to pay a bit more attention to the end crosses particularly Euro y see where that Euro if it is going to break through that level okay which comes in around 10590 or not all right now one other sort of dollar one there the offshore one down just come off a bit this is on the back of um I'd say it's on the back of the IMF giving uh the one or the rembe um uh joining the IMF basket okay so what this allows them to do is actually get loans off the off the IMF now this is a purely symbolic uh gesture has no real implications as as far as financial markets goes the um they don't really join until October 2016 okay as it goes through here you'll read the report um the symbolic thing is it hasn't this basket of currencies hasn't changed for 35 years all right and uh one of the interesting parts of it is though the um this is the breakdown of the currencies almost 42% dollar 37.4 Euro 11.3 Sterling 9 .4% Yen okay so what they are expecting for the new ones no surprise there not supposed to be a change in the in the US dollar proportion the Euro Sterling and Yen will be giving up some of their some of their percentage in there um and that's uh that's where it goes so anyway the currency will have a 10.2 10.92% share and and can receive as part of IMF loans all right that's something they're obviously preparing for they must be bringing that in get ready to open open the uh Pur strings because China is in trouble all right but that's you know as I said there's no real uh Financial Market ramifications there it is purely symbolic it's a bit of a um you know confidence booster to the uh Chinese officials and and the currency for that matter and that's about it that's probably why the uh dollar one has come off the dollar has come off against the one all right so if anything it's already sort of breaking down I just had moved that trend line as you can see the trend line was here to a little bit convoluted and then we have this new uh level here what I think what they're hoping that means the International Community bringing them in would hopefully mean that they um mess they stop messing about with their currency so much and they start to play the international game I'd say that's what it's all about all right and that's pretty much it so uh key announcements today Aussie RBA at 230 you want to get on that and keep a very close eye on uh the AY dollar and the crosses for that matter it should be a pretty good opportunity okay we'll catch you later on cheer