Daily Market Insight for the 10th March 2022

hi there traders this is brad gilbert with the daily market insight okay welcome back everyone the uh bit of a sojourn for the daily market insight but uh i thought we'd just get uh things cranky just try and sort of direct you on where things are moving and what's connecting with what so just having a look at the the global markets right so i've got a few changes here to my metastock uh set up got the equity markets at the top here the um now there's been a fair bit of carnage uh on the equity markets year to date okay down about 10 15 especially for the nasdaq which has really been the big gainer over the whole pandemic um the the sort of key part to this is there's there's been a um you know really nice sort of rebound you'd expect this to happen right over the course of a week when it gets sold up the equity markets get sold off pretty badly so but week to day i mean these things are still in the red month to date more so and year to date uh still pretty heavy it's not over by any stretch right to me this is a slight correction across the board and if i just show you the um sort of the global markets just give you a bit of a snapshot here the okay so the dollar index yep heading top side with those equity markets rallying it's a risk on risk off situation so the dollar sort of just dribbling lower on the day but overall still way up uh the euro floundering but it has bounced the market's got itself so short euro especially under 110 uh massive clean out of stops but until this russian ukraine issue uh subsides or diminishes it's still gonna it's still a sell on rallies as far as i can i'm concerned now dalian the safe haven well it's caught between a rock and a hard place there's so many big global events happening the dollar u.s dollar is a safe haven in itself and so is this sort of yen so it's really not going anywhere now as far as commodities leading the charge is oil uh you know a huge move up to 130 we're seeing massive volatility in this sucker it's it's huge right up to 130 down to 103. it's like a 17 move back down right so this thing i mean a one percent movie is big like let alone 17 in a day so just be careful like it can't be sustained and that move back down here is opec you know coming to the rescue i should say it's like it's like hilarious because they're usually screwing the market so much on supply and demand but opec and iraq saying well you know we'll increase supply take the pressure off the oil prices but i'll tell you what they're going to be cashing in at these higher prices of course you want to make some more uh well now the s p and the nasdaq as i sort of showed you on the uh on the data there both drifting lower now most important part here to me just looking at the overall aspect here of what they what they've got the sort of 200-day simple or smooth moving average is something that a lot of fund managers use to sort of determine if an instrument is is in a bearish mode or bullish to me nasdaq's been up and down through it and nasdaq has been the key as i said all through the pandemic it was the one thing obviously tech stocks everything online now i can see this getting crunched the s p yet hasn't quite moved through that level yet so still as i said this recent move yet or today's movie yesterday's move in the um us equity markets right a nice rebound but the pressure is still on um now when you come across and you're looking at various instruments bitcoin right it's been getting a little bit whacked if anything and i'll come back to the data uh in a second you can start to see it's actually moving pretty closely with the u.s equity markets but it is under pressure but stabilizing at the moment and for those punters looking for another bit of a safe haven once again on the commodity side of things uh metals gold massive rally on all the risk around russia everything else combined but once again it is drifted off as well pretty much in line with what oil has done there as well so once again the commodity instruments there are experiencing massive volatility right the volatility index itself is up around 35 now it usually sits around 10 or 15. this is the volatility is here to stay now don't be afraid of the volatility because that actually gives us opportunities when there's volatility in the market it's easy to work out what's going on right so let's coming back to the the main data here the as i was sort of saying if you look at the um the cryptos right you look at the month of day year to date they're not too far off what's been happening on the us equity markets right now where we where are we going today well let's just have a look where the main driver is once again it is the equity markets you've got to be looking at the u.s equity futures now they are back in the red you'd expect that after such a big update uh in north america during the day of course that's going to subside during the uh you know when the market's shut right so but you know what it is red but they have hardly moved the market is anticipating the the overall markets next move so don't forget when you're looking at the whole market as a whole the um like the commodities for instance right so oil has been so dramatically sort of getting whipped about as has gold it's hard to sort of work out what's driving what now the fact that opec and iraq are going to be increasing oil supplies should see oil dribble off from here right should see it continue lower uh that will sort of fill in the hole that russia's sort of left there um now if you're looking to sort of connect the dots depending on where you're trading from right the north american session is the epicenter right so you want to be watching the us equities as i said in a lead up to that market opening u.s equity futures but they that is going to be a direct lead into global equity markets aussie kiwi equities asian equities and also the european equities european equities week to date pretty good i mean as you'd expect it's they've all bounced on the daily side of things but the u.s equity markets i mean sorry the european equity market's doing a lot better uh there's talk about the ecb coming out issuing some sort of bonds or or um some sort of miracle cure to sort of raise money for um defense and spending and recovery stuff i mean same old sort of dribble but just be aware there's there's plenty of news going on so look to connect the dots now the easiest thing for me when i'm looking at this global markets page is i'll just get the pin up again by looking at the u.s equity markets right u.s equity futures uh bearish on that that's for tomorrow but on the scale of it for like for the asian session in particular today u.s equities rallied that's a risk-on um sort of scenario uh short term right so you get the dollar index bouncing you're still going to you actually the euro uh sterling aussie kiwis sort of falling that doesn't actually really match up because you'd expect it was in the um the other way around a few hours ago and i was looking at this so is that is that risk on risk off profile sort of working well not really as i said this is a short-term bounce the overall aspect of what's happening on the u.s equities is down so the overriding sort of medium long-term risk profile is still pressure on the risk assets aussie kiwi cad and you've got the dollar rallying against the other pairs so just be aware so that you can see what's happening when you line the data up like this um short term equity u.s equities bounce but you know what they're still looking terrible still going down that's where we're still going to risk risk off profile on the currencies there so don't get so caught up in euro and these things continuing to bounce whilst those u.s equity markets remain under pressure uh and i'm talking sort of you know weekly medium term and year they're going to remain under pressure right that's it's got to be the way of it so you come back and have a look now at the uh say the forex markets you know you look at the sort of key data is it going to impact i don't really think so but not at this point it just doesn't seem like it's a uh a valid thing that's going to happen the dollar index well i've got a couple of support resistance here but those orange trend lines tell me they've only got a couple of touches not that important right so once again easier to differentiate what's going on when you set your your machines up or your dashboards like this because you can see exactly what the impact from the equity markets is on the majors down through the commodities risk on risk off safe havens and you've got the us bonds there too just to keep an eye on things so just having a look at the uh a quick flick through the um uh the currency charts the majors here i've got the daily charts up here once again you can start to see this 200-day moving average right in the middle of the dollar swiss the dollar index well it's well above that level as it is on dollar yen um dollar cad well it's whipping up and down there but it's going to get heavily influenced by the massive volatility in oil um for sure euro well it's well it's very bearish well below the 200 day moving average and sterling's down there now as well the aussie and the kiwi well these two pairs they've got sort of mixed things going on now this the economic conditions aren't like fabulous but they're so far away from the issues in europe there's a lot of money going into uh the aussie and kiwi economies right globally so that's something to sort of weigh up as you sort of go through your trade day uh looking at these pairs now let's clear that let me just come over to i'll just walk you through the various charts here on the equity markets i've lost the dow there for some reason so you want to get the picture here see these massive moves these are all daily charts uh massive down moves on the equity markets here's the volatility index i just want to show you the extreme levels back to uh when the pandemic kicked off to where we are it's still pretty high and you've got the nasdaq and s p right so the whole you know i can't see the russia ukraine issue sort of subsiding and this is what's going to keep pressure on the equity markets um if if there's any sort of issues with those nuclear reactors or anything like that you're going to see this these things just fall out of bed right so just be aware of that massive pressure on the equity markets now if i come back just give you a look once again at the cryptos what i've done here is i've actually broken these up into the hourly charts at the top and the daily charts at the bottom just for the bitcoin litecoin and ethereum you can see here uh the battle that's going on here around that 200-day moving average on the on bitcoin litecoin well it's under that 200-day moving average so it's definitely in a bearish mode and i'll tell you what the ethereum can't really work itself out too battling away there is it bearish or bullish well it's under pressure but we're not seeing too much activity just at the moment and uh what else we got there if i just uh switch back over commodities okay so looking at the various commodities um as you know oil i mean i've got oil here on a few different things i've just got them in the normal sort of color so you can actually see what's going on but uh yeah massive volatility in uh like crude and brent the copper it's sort of drifting lower as well they should put downward pressure on the aussie and precious metals at the top well massive uh rally and then sort of coming back a bit somewhat and iron all continues to rally there should well that's that's the offset right you get copper coming off oil crude i mean sorry iron all going up a bit of two-way pressure there on the aussie probably a good reason why it's uh sort of just tracking sideways all right so it's pretty extensive coverage now i won't be uh probably going into too much depth as i move forward but just wanted to give you a bit of a look through the various uh aspects the easiest way to follow these markets is understand the connection between the various financial markets it's very easy then whether you look at equity markets treasuries or currency relative strength to see exactly what's going on now if you're a stock trader and you're looking for what's going on in the sort of dow in the instruments there you can actually click on um on these uh all the headings at the top you can go through and see which uh companies are under pressure which ones are outperforming chevron obviously with oil going through the roof is uh they're having a great old time of it the uh the rest of them well not so much you know it's it's a lot of red there so that's obviously why the dow jones is uh heading a little bit south but uh that's all you can sort of do at that point and obviously you can go through and check out the s p 500 etc as well you'll find uh if you're looking to trade those individual stocks it's a good way to just quickly go through especially with these red bars and the blue bars a nice way to find out what's happening across the board there and you can do the same obviously for uh most of these other international uh major indices all right all right guys so uh good to be back online i'll keep you updated uh as i go forward from here on what is happening in the markets we'll try and connect the dots and make some cash all right everyone good to see you again cheerio