Daily Market Insight for the 21st March 2022

hi there trays this is brad gilbert with the daily marketing site for monday the 21st of march right now the year's almost skipping away from us now i'm just starting with the charts just to give you a bit of overview what's going on the dollar index we can see the dollar really isn't doing too much at all if anything we've seen euro come back i've had this uh yellow sort of horizontal line here around 111 19. keeps coming back and testing that it looks like there's unfinished business and stops above uh above that 120 level it looks like for all money we might see that or it's just a very short-term little flick up and straight back down because what we're seeing is oil's sort of broken down and come coming back as the fighting between the ukraine and russia continues right it's dragging on we thought it might sort of roll over but it hasn't done that right so that's one part of it and this is the other sort of confusing part is the rally in equity markets right so the s p off that support level and uh the nasdaq back above that 200-day moving average has sort of been put down to a potential deal being done between russia and ukraine right so this is the hard thing about geopolitical events you can get different things attributed to different parts um oil the oil move it's a reality oil is a little bit higher because they haven't stopped fighting whereas the whole situation around that this little bounce in equities is around the prospect of a deal which tells me if they do do a deal we start to see equities come off again right obviously it's going to be more interest rate related but tricky to say the least um bitcoin as far as the cryptos go kit pretty good big ranges right but um not really going anywhere just yet and gold has a very nice tidy relationship here with oil at the moment although it hasn't really bounced as hard as oil has so that's where we are on on the sort of the global markets right so if i just bring you back to the uh to the global data itself uh here's the equity move from friday now that's friday right so that's sort of factored into the market what we're looking at today there's uh if i just come over here to the news page you always get a fresh round of news um you know there's a bit more update russia and ukraine continue over the weekend so that sort of sparks the market a bit um now what we're starting to see is a few opinion pieces right so tokyo and i was just reading a few articles they like lacking news right they're lacking the data we saw the fed last week um raise rates you know maybe their hawkish stance was already factored in it appears that way bank of england they hike and go sort of pretty much neutral so we've got a bit of a mixed reaction here now what can you do about this well let's just follow the market what we can see right so if i do come back to the global markets page the global data okay u.s equity equities a little bit lower right what should that do for us well in normal market conditions it's a risk-off profile and that's actually what we're seeing here uh except for kiwi isn't doesn't want to dance but it's only at 0.1 we're seeing the euro sterling aussie and kiwi dribble off and the dollar pairs rally right nice easy profile to start with right i like this it gives me a little bit of confidence that the markets are starting to connect and behave quite orderly okay the safe havens dollar swiss and the yen really i mean doesn't seem to be any safe haven status with those pairs tells me that the market is very comfortable with the way the russian ukraine uh action has developed there's always that shock and awe at the start then it subsides and now we're seeing the tail end of that sort of conflict um if you're looking for something as far as oil goes because oil is hanging in there right this is uh quite an interesting one i have actually added chevron and exxon um shares right to this this whole profile now year to day this is up about uh 60 i think at one stage chevron was or 48 i think it was anyway it was much higher than where it is a few um a bit of a drop there in the uh share value pretty pretty volatile the that's sort of more related around the conflict coming back online don't forget we had opec i think i think it was in iraq saying they're going to release more supply that sort of takes the pressure off oil as well but uh you can see oil's still up right until we get that uh final resolution from um the markets right from from that issue it's going to continue and if i just flick over here to have a look at the major currencies see what's going on there you can see that dollar index just sort of jamming away in between these sort of pretty fickle sort of trend lines at the moment no major action there but once again if i just come across to the charts the uh one of the interesting ones um actually i'll just come over to these other two charts because it's a little bit more of a clearer picture you can get a bit of an idea what's going on here so just a euro on the alleys okay we've got a new high here from friday so redrawing the trend lines we've got resistance above 111 support under 110 and where are we on the big picture well we're right at this pivot point put it down as one eleven twenty that sort of seems to be the balance of power at the moment but uh i can tell you what to be a lot of people queuing up to um sell euro on a rally it's the fact is we're a couple of weeks into this into this dip and this is where when you have a trend line like this the market will start to sniff out the stop losses if there are some up there so what we need is you come back to the overall what's going to drive it there well if it's not the geopolitical news it's the uh fundamental data so i'd be looking very closely for for u.s numbers or euro numbers we need strong or weak u.s numbers i should say or strong euro numbers to get it going in actual fact we've got a cart load of really high impacting uk data cpi ppi retail sales as we go through the week you can probably check out the consumer confidence numbers i can't imagine they would be any good out of europe at this point uh german some german numbers as i said you get some more um uh pmi numbers here out of the uk then we hit durable goods right pretty good historical number for as far as the u.s numbers go uh the iphone okay this is probably something to keep a very close eye on later in the week the iphone numbers out of germany pretty uh good historical strong numbers and then we've got the university of michigan sentiment numbers there at the end so sterling is going to be a major focus so what i would be doing is is really tuning into your sterling charts uh either the majors as instilling against the dollar will go to sterling against the crosses there could be some more play here this thing is um i just won't get involved it's like weak and it's directly related to i mean you can see how much cash the russians had in the uk now that's all been lifted out of there and it's left the sterling rather looking a little bit like it's got a bad hangover the rest of the pairs well they're getting dollar swiss i think we've had the stop loss around there in dollar swiss dollar yen just keeps going coming back to support here on dollar cad now oil is coming back a bit but you know i think the next move we see oil drop below 100 bucks again you can be sure dollar cad is going to go with it euro pretty uh euro's got to be on your on your on your hit list because it's got that such a good level there even if you're looking if you're not sure whether to go long or short yet the level is the key to it so you can actually see how it reacts around that if we see the spike up i'm still sort of a bit bearish um well there's the data has gone a bit stale there and off again uh aussie and kiwi well to me they're out of the game at the moment they don't even want to play and the same is sort of like sterling stealing's just on its knees but won't dance and euro's got the best technical setup maybe gives us gives us an opportunity around that level as i said do i do we go short or long well i'm not sure just yet right you have to see what the fundamental picture is as we go forward and that's how you can make a pretty good judgment on that so the week it's the last week of the month you're going to have a lot of central bankers talking from all central banks it's pretty common right they wheel them out the last week of the month you know as we wait for the new batch of data next month so you expect the fed officials be talking up the uh prospects of higher rates on the high rates but you know like we're gonna have to do something it's quite funny interesting that uh they haven't done anything about the qe they just keep raising rates right it's almost like they don't want to touch the qe because i know that'll crush the u.s equity markets and that's going to give us a interesting picture as we move forward these are little glowing positive days on the u.s equities you know what may be short-lived i i still expect it to come off quite hard but right now we're only seeing a little bit of a dribble off in the equity markets a bit of a risk off profile so make sure you look at that and we'll try and piece it together as we go through the week all right everyone have a good week all the best cheerio