This is NOT The Year of the Linux Desktop

So, Linux seems to be having a little bit of a moment. Now, this kind of thing has happened before. Usually, when a Windows version goes out of life, Linux becomes the thing for a lot of people. Now, it seems different this time, mostly because there are a lot of high-profile YouTubers out there or influencers, if you want to use that term, who have switched to Linux or have tried to switch to Linux and they have talked about these things in videos. Obviously, the biggest among them is PewDiePie, but you've seen like gamers Nexus start to implement Linux testing into their testing suite, which is really cool. You've seen Linus TechTips get back into Linux. He just had Linus Torvolds on, which was both a little awkward and funny. So, go watch that if you haven't already, which I assume if you're in the Linux community, everyone has watched that video. It was shared in my Discord approximately 20 times, which was just funny. So there there's all these YouTubers that are getting into Linux because Windows 10 is going out of service and Microsoft is doing Microsofty things. They're limiting the type of hardware they can upgrade to Windows 11, forcing a lot of people to choose between buying a new computer or just living on Windows 10. They're doing the whole Windows recall thing. They're doing all this AI all that kind of stuff, right? They're doing Microsofty things, the things that you expect them to do. So, Linux is having a moment. And there's a sense in the Linux community that hasn't really been there before cuz we've all heard the whole year of the Linux desktop thing until we're sick of it. We all know that the year of the Linux desktop is just not going to happen. And we've gotten so pessimistic about the whole idea of Linux finally becoming popular that when it's actually happening or it could be happening, we get very excited about it. We're losing our pessimism a little bit and we're getting into the point where just maybe just maybe people will start seeing Linux as the thing that it is and that's a cool but different operating system. The question that I have about all of it is what's next? Because King George says in Hamilton, what comes next? I'm not going to start singing. I'm not going to break into song. And the answer to that question is murky at best because if say for example a lot of people do switch to Linux and I think a lot of people will that probably wouldn't have before simply because of the hardware restrictions that Microsoft is instituting on their operating system. Linux is still the same as it ever was. Now, I'm not saying that Linux hasn't changed and gotten better and all that stuff. It has, but the hurdles that were there, say, 10 years ago when I started using Linux are mostly still there. Things like Adobe's not here, Microsoft Word is not here. There are still amazingly Nvidia driver problems that just will not die. It's a it's hard to get your Nvidia card to work on Linux if you don't know what you're doing. There are obviously a ton of dros out there. We still have the fragmentation problems that we've been talking about for 35 years. All of these things still exist. All the problems that prevented the year of the Linux desktop from happening 10 years ago are still there. So my question is, what's next? How do we see this going? Because [clears throat] people are going to switch to Linux now more than they ever have before. And they're going to encounter those problems just like they would have if they switched 10 years ago. And maybe a good portion of them will be able to overcome those hurdles because you can overcome them. You don't have to have Adobe products to do a lot of things. You can use things like and Creta. Now, are you going to have the full functionality? No. Of course, you're not going to have that, but you could restructure your workflow if you're willing to use those programs. Things like if you use Premiere, you can use Da Vinci Resolve. That's here on Linux. I wish you luck installing it. If you're not on Pop OS, for the rest of us who aren't there, you may have some issues. It's possible, at least theoretically, to install Resolve on Linux and use that if you're a Premier user. Things like OBS are obviously here and all the browsers are still here, but your Nvidia card problems are going to be just traditional. You're going to have to figure out what driver that you need. You're going to have to install that thing. All the stuff, none of that stuff is automated because it's proprietary software and none of the dros are interested in making it automated. Now, they do like Ubuntu will do some automation for you, but not all of it. And if you choose Fedora, they won't do any of that automation for you. you have to go find the Nvidia stuff yourself because of their stance and proprietary software which is what they're known for. Same thing with Open Soua. Good luck finding the Nvidia drivers on Open Soua especially now that YAS is no longer there. You have to actually go search through the documentation which is excellent. [laughter] I couldn't even say that with a straight face and install it through Zipper or something like that or whatever they've replaced to replaced Yast with. So the problems are still there. So my the the title of this video is will Linux kill the year of the Linux desktop and I say that somewhat in cheek but Linux hasn't gotten any easier and it hasn't solved any of the problems that have always prevented it from being successful in the mainstream mainly because most of those problems are inherent features of open source software. things like the fragmentation problem. Whether you consider a problem or not, it's just it exists, right? There's a lot of dros out there and you have to make a choice between them. We can't get rid of that because we're open source. People can do whatever the hell they want. We like that about open source software in Linux. We like the fact that Linux Mint can take Iuntu, strip out all the things except for the kernel that make Auntu and the repository and put all their own stuff in and call it their own DRO. We like that they can do that, but you can't deny that it causes some uncertainty amongst people who switch. So, if you go watch some of those influencer videos, one of the things that they always talk about almost verbatim in every single one of those videos is their problem with actually choosing which DRO to use. Now, most of them will go find Linux Mint because if you Google beginner Linux distro, Linux Mint pops up there at the top, but they still have that uncertainty there at the beginning. So, none of the problems have been solved. And that leads me to ask the question, will this actually be the year of the Linux desktop or will it face the same hurdles as it always has? Now, I am an eternal pessimist. I'm a cynical sob, if you will. I think that'd be a good way to describe me. So, my answer to this question would be, yeah, yes, some people will switch. I think that the whole Valve thing that's going on with their new hardware and stuff will be quite interesting to watch. which I think a lot more people will come to Linux because of that. But is it going to make Linux mainstream? No, I don't think so. I think we'll gain maybe we'll see more growth because of this than in years past, but I don't think that we're going to go like from 5% or whatever right now, which is I think is a very generous number to 15%. I think that's entirely too optimistic. I can see us gaining maybe 2% which would be an extraordinary thing to happen given that represents millions of more people using Linux. I think that's awesome. And if we can maintain those numbers over time and then continue to grow, that's exactly what Linux needs. I just have my doubts. I have serious doubts because of the problems that still remain. Like I I know that I always preach about this in all the vid beginner Linux DRO videos that I make about the hardship of burning something on an ISO, learning how to get into the boot menu of your BIOS and booting into the installer. I know that I tend to underestimate perhaps or deride the technological literacy of people who are trying to do this simply because every computer is different. I'm not I guess I'm not really calling them stupid. I'm not calling them naive even. I'm just saying that trying to get into a BIOS boot menu is hard simply because my computer is different than your computer and your computer is different than Bob's computer and Bob's computer is different than Mike's computer. They're all different. Now, if you went and averaged up all of the buttons you needed to press to get into that menu, you'd probably come up with three or four of them. So that if you knew that going in, you could press all four of them and eventually get there. But there's still that hurdle. And I've always gone on about that. That problem still exists. All of these problems still exist. And that leads to my pessimism that this is going to be any different than before. Maybe it'll be a little bit different. Maybe there'll be more people than normal than in previous years when Windows has gone out of service. But I still think at the end of the day the vast majority of people will actually let's phrase that the majority of people who try to switch to Linux will fail and they'll fail because of the traditional reasons why people have failed to switch to Linux whether it's software availability hardware problems mostly Nvidia inability to install certain programs that they need that are available crappy community support, crabby documentation, all of these things that have been traditionally problems that are still problems. Those are the reasons why people will fail. And that's just the way that it is, right? There's no there if you were expecting me to have a solution at the end of the video, you were overestimating my ability to fix things because I don't have a solution. There is no solution. Like I said before, these a lot of the problems are inherent to open source software. Now, the bad documentation usually is because developers are just crap at doing documentation. As someone who's been doing more development in my own life, I 100% understand now. Like, I always bitched about people doing their own documentation. Come on, developers, documentation better. Documentation is the worst thing to do. So, anyways, I don't have a solution for any of this stuff, but I will just say that I'm happy Linux is having a moment. I do hope that it spurs some growth. I have more hope now that there will be more Linux users than in previous years from the end of Windows 10. I I have some hope and I don't want my pessimism, my cynicism to ruin the moment, but I do think that it is important for us to consider the fact that most of the problems that were there before are actually still there. We're just having people that are more motivated to use Linux than ever before simply because of Windows being so dog That is it for this video. If you have comments on this, you can leave those in the comment section below. I'd love to hear from you. You can follow me on Mastadon. That link will be in the video description. You can support me on Patreon at patreon.com/thelininuxcast. There you'll find a weekly exclusive podcast that I put out for all of my supporters. Basically just me sitting in front of this microphone for about 15 minutes just doing this stuff. I just ramble for a little while and you guys can hear that if that's something that you're interested in by supporting me on Patreon or on YouTube members. That is it for this one. Thanks to everybody who does support me on Patreon and YouTube. You guys are all absolutely amazing. Without you, the channels would not be anywhere near where it is right now. So, thank you so very much for your support. I'm still getting myself back into the whole making videos thing at the time of recording this. I don't know when this will actually come out, but it should be fairly soon. So, if I'm more rambly than normal, it just means that I'm I'm still out of practice. I'm I'm getting there. So, that's it for this one. Thank you for watching so much. I have hope you have a wonderful day. I'll see you next time.