Caught in the Crossfire: China’s African Gambit Goes Awry

hi I'm Dong Shong welcome to Digging to China where we explore China in depth to reveal unique perspectives not long ago those fervent nationalist supporters sometimes called warrior war patriots were spinning a rather audacious tale they claimed the CCP would strike Taiwan sweep southward and seize Australia planting red flags across both lands yet when the moment arrived to demonstrate genuine military prowess Xi Jinping faltered in the end he found himself thoroughly outmaneuvered and forced to pay a steep price lately Xiinping's ambitious belt and the road initiative has hit yet another snack on March 13th the military hunga governing Niger a landlocked nation in West Africa abruptly expelled the three senior executives from the China National Petroleum Corporation or CNPC they didn't stop there they also revoked the operation license of a Chinese funded hotel that served CNPC personnel they stated the reasons largely pre-textual they accused the CNPC of discriminatory practices chinese staff earned over $8,000 US monthly while local workers received just over 1,000 that disparity they argued was unconscionable furthermore CNPC allegedly refused to engage Nigerian suppliers importing everything from China and leaving no economic benefits for local firms understandably the Nigerian government was insensed and the repercussions were significant their message to China was clear sort this out yourselves beneath the surface the implication is unmistakable niger's newly installed military regime sees an opportunity to extract funds from Shiqinping why him you might ask well internationally he's gained a reputation as a wealthy yet pliable target flushed with resources but vulnerable to pressure china stands as Niger's largest foreign investor with the CNPC having committed $4.6 billion US to oil field projects there over the years when you've got such a lucrative price in your backyard who else would you target xi Jinping is hardly a novice at being taken advantage of by these less scrupulous belt and road partners so it's likely he will grudgingly accept this setback too complicating matters this Nigerian hunter enjoys a notably close relationship with Russia one can't help but wonder if Moscow is quietly fanning the flames behind the scenes that fragile alliance between China and Russia often seems to buckle under strain today I'd like to explore how this situation unfolded assess its gravity and then take stock of Xiinping's ledger calculating just how much treasure and how many lives have been squandered on this belt and road endeavor over the years CNPC's for Niger's oil sector began back in 2003 western oil firms had already withdrawn deeming Niger's political instability marked by frequent coups too risky and its oil prospects too unprofitable cnpc however pressed forward undeterred as a state-owned entity its mission transcends mere profit it served China's broader strategic interests political leverage outweights financial loss so CNBC took on the challenge of developing Niger's oil fields they've been added for 22 years investing that a forementioned $4.6 billion over two decades CNBC has come to dominate Niger's oil industry they control the oil fields the pipelines and account for 90% of the country's oil exports in fairness they've also bolstered the Niger's GDP and a tax base considerably but as I noted earlier political volatility is Africa's hallmark in 2023 Niger experienced yet another coupe ushering in a new hunter why yet another since independence in the 1960s Niger has averaged a coupe every few years the 2023 upheaval was their fifth this latest regime is distinctly anti-American and anti-French but warmly pro-Russia maintaining strong ties with Vladimir Putin they've even enlisted Wagner mercenaries from him yet upon seizing power they inherited a fiscal mess their most pressing need funds while Putin offers military supports he's notoriously cashstrapped himself loyalty to their Russian patron requires money they don't have so what's the solution turn to the wealthiest player in town CNPC and demand a payout under some flimsy pretest initially the Nigerian hometown didn't resort to outright thuging like expelling executives they started with a veneer of civility diplomacy among allies you might say in March last year they approached the CNPC with a polite request for a loan cnpc reading the room agreed to lend $400 million 12 months at a 7% interest knowing full well refusal wasn't an option now a year later repayments due and the CNPC never seriously expected to recover it everyone understood it was a write off but then the hunter dropped the mosque they boldly declared the debt null and void slapped the CNPC with new tariffs and demanded hundreds of millions more in trouble not content with that they are now angling to seize CNPC's entire operation perhaps tiring of peacemail extortion why not claim the golden goose outright and enjoy perpetual dividends to that end the insisted CMPs installed their appointees in management leading to the expulsion of those three executives we mentioned earlier this amounts to holding CNPC's local assets ransom to strongarm Shiinping he faces a stock choice surrender and enterprise build over 20 years with $4.6 billion invested or pay off the hunter handsomely to settle the matter he could appeal to Russia for mediation after all they are the Honta's closest confidant and might wield influence but Russia rarely acts altruistically and with SinoRussian relationship showing slight strength Shiinping might find himself squeezed by Moscow too let's probe deeper into this dynamic could Russia be quietly relishing China's predictment watching Niger its rival xi Jinping has grown rather confident lately and with Russia reliant on Chinese industrial goods amid its war he's begun to fancy himself Putin's equal or superior unwilling to remain subordinate he's testing boundaries putin in turn might see this as an opportunity to reassert dominance and remind Xiinping who's the boss currently Xiinping is grappling with this crisis negotiations with Niger drag on with little progress and Ha's demand seem insatiable extortionate sums backed by no shreds of good faith just a raw opportunism resolving this clearly is proving elusive for China yet a complete break with Niger isn't feasible either the People's Liberation Army lacks the capacity to safeguard Chinese interests in Africa that's a feat only the US military can manage when news of Niger's move against the CNBC broke Hu Xi Jing ever the loyal voice in China swiftly stepped in to soothe the public unrest he urged citizens not to burden the state with the complaints about investing in such turbulent regions it's inevitable he argued the world's prime territories are claimed by advanced nations leaving us to vive for scraps in poor unstable corners when Hushi Jin spins such a narrative it's a telltale sign of a thorny problem xiinping is poised for a significant loss here at the minimum for 12 years Jinping had championed these belt and road projects yet incidents like this being exploited by rogue local regimes are far from isolated let's take an accounting over these dozen years how much wealth and how many Chinese lives has he sacrificed to this vision in 2014 a militant group in Cameroon raided a Chinese highway construction camp abducting 10 workers the project halted and all prior investment evaporated in 2016 two Chinese peacekeepers guarding oil interests in South Sudan perished under artillery fire in 2017 Nepal's new leadership avoided a secretive two and a half billion dollar hydro power deal struck with China's previous regime in 2018 Malaysia's post election government paused the $20 billion in Chinese backed projects a railway and a gas pipeline after negotiations the rail resumed at the reduced scope but the pipelines sunk costs were forfeited entirely in 2019 Tanzania's president stalled a $10 billion Chinese port project talks have resumed but no headways being made also in 2019 a $ 1.5 billion dollar rail project in Kazakhstan capital built by China founded a corruption and funding woos that same year a Chinese gold mine in Kyrgyzstan sparked local unrest injuring 19 workers before shutting down in 2020 three Chinese merchants in Zambia were killed their factory raised by awesome in 2021 Myanmar saw dozens of Chinese textile factories looted and burned with workers harmed and the losses reaching tens of millions also in 2021 a suicide bomber in Pakistan struck a bus of Chinese engineers claiming nine lives again that year Congolese militants attacked a Chinese goldman killing a guard and abducting five miners leading to a local ban on operations in 2022 a suicide attack on a Confucious Institute bus in Karachi Pakistan killed three Chinese teachers and a driver in 2023 government in the Central African Republican assaulted a Chinese gold mine murdering nine workers and wounding two consider this litany of tragedies my research tallies loses in the tens of billions of dollars and the dozens of lives merely the documented cases surely we don't believe the belt and the road toll stops at a hundred odd deaths financial hits are secondary it's the human cost so many Chinese lives extinguished for Xiinping's vaunted belt and the road dream 12 years later I still struggle to see its greatness but the disasters continue without the end to Xiinping it seems Chinese lives are expendable a trivial price for his grand design yet after such sacrifice the belt and the road teeters toward failure these losses of lives and resources will fade from domestic memory buried by a communist party that forbids their acknowledgement i've long held that a folly isn't the greatest sin it's ignorance of one's own folly while chasing grand dials ambitions that's truly perilous the belt and the roads premise was flawed from inception china lacks the US military global reach to shield its ventures with naval might with such limited marshall strength venturing into a volatile realms of African and South America for investment is akin to offering oneself as prey bribing a few corrupt officials with petty sums might work if luck holds but against hardened rogues like Niger's hunter small changes won't surface they aim to devour your entire enterprise leaving no scrapes what resources remains negotiations falters repeated payments turn you into their cash machine ultimately it's a strength that matters the People's Liberation Army postures daily toward Taiwan not long ago those warrior wolf patriots boasted of conquering Taiwan and storming Australia yet when true military metal is required Xiinping proves impotent he's fleeced mercilessly compelled to conceal the debacle and then dresses it up at home as a triumph mourning masquerading as a celebration proclaiming China's victory a new the irony is almost comical fortunately Xiinping's coffers are dwindling now belt and the road ventures are beyond his grasp lacking funds and enable power without the means one shouldn't undertake the task i propose he terminate the belt and the road to policy forward let Xiinping focus on domestic governance a wiser cause for all concerned thank you so much for watching if you find this video helpful please like it drop a comment below and hit the subscribe button right here it really helps you to suggest my video to others i'll be back with more content soon until then be well