Why a Democratic China is Xi Jinping’s Only Chance at Survival | Digging into China

Why a Democratic China is Xi Jinping’s Only Chance at Survival | Digging into China

In his latest deep dive, Toronto Fanglian challenges the popular belief that Xi Jinping will eventually retire or hand over power. Analyzing the rigid nature of absolute autocracies, he argues that one-man dictators cannot step down safely. Historical precedents like Angola and Kazakhstan show that without collective leadership to maintain institutional rules, a retired dictator’s family faces swift asset forfeiture and imprisonment, even by handpicked successors.

Furthermore, Xi’s extensive anti-corruption purges have created a vengeful "Alliance of Losers" among sidelined elites awaiting retribution. Coupled with the "Loyalty-Competence Paradox"—which prevents him from finding a capable successor who shares his radical vision—Xi has trapped himself in perpetual rule. Ironically, historical data suggests that if his regime collapses, a transition to a rule-bound democracy offers a dictator better odds of personal survival than being overthrown by his own terrified, resentful bureaucracy.

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