5 Min Ago: FED NOW Warning! They Made A BIG MISTAKE Doing This To The People

you know what guys at this point we'll never be in a recession because the government will just keep redefining what a recession is we'll just identify as being rich even when we're dead broke I mean everybody's feeling it right now they say recessions don't get officially announced until way after every American feels it in their heart and in their pocket what do you guys think but seriously though most economists and banks are expecting the official recession to happen later this year or even next year check this out but the one component of the ism that we spent a lot of time talking about was employment it continues to decline you've only seen it at these levels when the FED has been cutting rates so either this is something brand new or the markets the data in the markets the economy is telling us we're going to see slow down so you're in the recession and the lower bond yields Camp absolutely okay if the 10-year level next move from here well maybe I shouldn't ask you next move because at this point who knows but what's the ultimate move do you think in the next 12 months or so we see the US in recession somewhere around year-end we see the FED cutting rates before then we think they'll have to go down to two and a half to three percent we see the yield curve pretty steep we can see the entire yield curve say six to nine months from now three percent now the question that I have if applicable is how long will the recession last the one in 08 it took five to ten years to be fixed I know because tech companies only started hiring in 2013 and much more aggressively in 2015. recession I know it's a word that sends shivers down our spines the debate about whether we're heading for one has been going on for the past year or so some people believe that the declining real GDP figures in the first half of 2022 they were proof of the U.S economy already heading into a recession but when the economy showed signs of moderate growth in the second half of the year and job figures remained relatively strong the White House and the Federal Reserve said nope it wasn't a recession but hey it's all about that inverted yield curve huh it's the bond markets Canary in the Gold Mine y'all know what I'm saying right so basically it's when the short-term bonds offer higher yields than long term see normally long-term bonds offer higher yields than the shorter term ones and since investors are tying up their money for a longer period they should be rewarded normally but when the relationship flips when the long-term bonds actually drop below shorter term interest rates then we have what is called an inverted yield curve and this isn't something that we should be ignoring history shows that an inverted yield curve has reliably signaled an impending recession matter of fact the FED of San Francisco checked this already the connection between the yield curve inversions and the United States recessions ever since 1955 yield curve inversions have reliably foreshadowed all 10 recessions the economy has encountered during that period so even though some may dismiss it the FED it has proven itself time and time again as a very remarkable forecasting record the bond market is sending us a message and we should definitely not ignore it it's pretty logical if you think about it Bond markets like all financial markets they're forward-looking when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates as it's currently doing bonded investors anticipate an upcoming economic correction that will eventually lead to lower interest rates to capitalize on this prediction investors end up buying bonds locking in high yield rates before the decline and expecting capital gains on their bond Holdings when yields fall now this buying Behavior it prevents longer-term yields from rising as much as the short-term rates directly under the fed's control now we've all heard the recession warning over the past nine months or so particularly since the yield curve first inverted in October 2022. now initially the rate on three-month treasury paper and the 10-year bond were the same both sitting at 4.1 percent by mid-January 2023 the three-month rate Rose to 4.7 percent while the 10-year yield dipped to 3.4 percent resulting in an inversion of 1.3 percentage points as of mid-july the rates stood at 5.4 and 3.8 percent so it was definitely a steeper inversion than in January now based on these movements the Federal Reserve of Cleveland calculated the chances of a recession with the possibility raising from 54 in December to over 63 percent in January and reaching almost 78 in June now what this yield curve isn't as good at predicting is the precise timing of the coming recession now when you check the historical data the time between the first inversion and the actual onset of a recession it varies so we can't really place a reliable average now the longest lag ever recorded was a staggering 22 months occurring from the initial inversion in January 2006 to the great recessions onset in late 2007. now on the other hand the shortest lag on record was a mere six months from the initial inversion in August 2019 to the recession start in February 2020. this was the timing of the c19 pandemic lockdowns and corn quarantine so those probably influence this unusually short lag but man guys I just can't believe that we lived through this pandemic that shut down the entire world it still kind of weirds me out today just to think about that initial news that we got now going back to this recession talk right now if we were to follow the longest lag as a guide of the current situation then technically the next recession would wait until August 2024. now I can imagine what that would mean for President Biden's presidential campaign but yeah we never know now if we use the shortest lag as a guide then we're already overdue like what a lot of you guys have been saying in the comments in between the shortest and longest lags the average would place the start of the recession in the final quarter of this year which pretty much aligns with the other economic indicators indicating a weakening economy now I know forecasting recession is never a sure thing but the overall direction of this pretty big indicator seems to be pretty clear plus the other economic indicators of course we gotta look at everything I mean nearly all signs are pointing to an impending economic correction even if the two-week Quarters at the beginning of 2022 were a false signal according to the FED but what I do know for sure though is that we're going to be watching this thing very closely and I'm going to make sure to keep you guys updated I'm going to give you guys all of the developments when anything happens now if you guys are appreciating the financial information and finding our content helpful please consider dropping a quick like for the video and also subscribe to the channel if you haven't already your support means a ton and it also helps the channel grow don't forget to hit the notification Bell as well we're working super hard to hit that 500k subscriber Mark every single day guys our very own Financial Freedom fam right here on YouTube and hey I just want to thank you guys so much for always being a part of this journey I'm very excited to actually share more insights with you guys in the future but hey we are not done yet a U.S recession is coming this year this is according to HSBC asset Management's warning and Europe they're set to follow in 2024. now according to their mid-year Outlook recession warnings are flashing red for many different economies and there's a high risk of a downturn in the United States by the fourth quarter followed by a European recession in 2024 but here's a Twist while some parts of the economy are holding up the overall balance of risk points to trouble ahead now we're already in a mild profit recession and corporate defaults are creeping up too now the good news is that they expect High inflation to take a step back which could lead to interest rate cuts by the FED before the end of 2023. the European Central Bank and the bank of England might follow suit next year but that's just the most optimistic investors talking fingers crossed guys now here's what it gets really interesting the recession might not be a total plunging of inflationary pressures so brace yourselves for somewhat higher inflation and also interest rates in developed economies down the line and so this is why HSBC Asset Management believes the treasury curve is looking pretty appealing they see value in European bonds right now so hey you guys might want to look into that for your next investment options at least that's according to HSBC so is a recession on the horizon or not well interest rates are soaring and the classic recession indicator with short-term rates being higher than the long-term rates is blinking but guess what the economy still chugging along and if a recession is coming it might take a lot longer than we expected the first half of 2024 is looking more likely for a downturn and maybe even later why the delay well unlike the past the federal reserve's steep rate hikes they're not putting the brakes on the economy just yet demand for homes and for cars is on the rise and service businesses they're doing well consumers seem to be holding up pretty well sitting on a stash of extra savings from the pandemic but growth will slow for the foreseeable future and we might see a couple more interest rate hikes along the way inflation is still a concern and only a recession might make the FED ease up so while there's no immediate sign of a downturn we can't let our guard down just yet just keep an eye on that yield curve inversion it started eight months ago so we might need to wait until the year end before the storm clouds Gather By the way if you own a home make sure your home is protected be sure to get your free home warranty quote there's a link in the description down below of this video now survey says that the economy see a 59 chance of a recession by July 2024 the U.S economy has so far avoided what most experts at this time last year assumed to be an inevitable 2003 recession economists however they still think a downturn is likely on the horizon experts put the odds of a recession between now and July 2024 at 59 a roughly three in five chance so probable odds that an economic environment featuring job loss slower business growth and a tough stock market are on the horizon illustrating those odds even more most respondents sitting at 78 percent they indicated that the percentage chance of a recession was greater than one in two while 28 said that the odds were more like 70 or higher just 22 percent said that the odds were at fifty percent or lower now they're crossing their fingers for the projected recession to not be as severe as the c19 pandemic and the Great Recession both downturns pushed unemployment up to double-digit levels and you know what that means guys it's time to protect ourselves by the way for the best way to invest in gold check out the links in the description down below of this video now recessions are an aspect of the business cycle that's as inevitable as rain is to weather it doesn't take a weather reporter to know that at some point in time it's going to rain there's going to be a storm but as far as downturns go this could be the toughest to predict since you know we're in the aftermath of the post-pandemic inflationary burst the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to a level not seen since 2007 and at a pace not matched since the 1980s typically the FED has never been able to raise interest rates this far and this fast without prompting a downdraft in the business cycle historically the FED has never been able to defeat inflation without a recession but really what's surprising to Economist is that the downturn hasn't yet shown up to crash the economy's party to be sure the economy has slowed from the economy's grand reopening after the pre-pandemic induced lockdowns and banks have also tightened up lending standards in the wake of the three major bank failures earlier this year yet consumers have continued spending their money starting on the gram flexing buying cars watches expensive handbags red bottom shoes and the labor market is still chugging along now I personally think that the U.S economy isn't out of the recessionary woods just yet rather it just likely hasn't fully caught off with the tightening in the pipeline so far most of the indicators used by the National Bureau of economic research to decide whether we are in a recession they still point to a very strong economy even with the recent Financial volatility but they still want to keep tightening monetary policy even further this year so that could lead to the economy weakening by either late this year or early next year it's bound to happen some people people out there they seem to think that we can defy economic Gravity by just simply printing money like crazy and never facing a bust but let me tell you guys the signs are pointing towards an imminent recession that could be pretty darn severe possibly rivaling the great financial crisis and even the Great Depression the Federal Reserve and analysts from Goldman Sachs they are diminishing the yield curve inversion but historical data shows that this kind of deep inversion they have often preceded major recessions this time the yield curve is the steepest that has been since 1981 indicating the highest likelihood of a recession in over 40 years so the notion that it's different this time and we can just ignore the laws of Economics they don't hold up I don't know who said it but this made a lot of sense to me if the American people ever allow private Banks to control the issue of their currency first by inflation then by deflation the banks and corporations that will grow up around them they will deprive the people of all of the property until their children wake up homeless what do you guys think about that by the way if you guys made it this far on the video be sure to drop a like for the video also consider subscribing and I'll see you on the next one