Strategy Insights Ep27: Will Putin Turn Hostile? Two Conditions for Betraying Xi 普丁出賣中國.背叛習近平兩大條件..

[Music] good morning ladies and gentlemen welcome to Professor M strategic insights I'm sure everybody has noticed that um what happened on on February the 28th in the White House when President linski met with President Trump and vice president Vance and how they end up in a fight a very serious fight I'm sure that surprised everybody including myself and that ended up in uh the failure to sign the uh the mineral deal officially the deal is uh entitled a bilateral agreement establishing terms and conditions for a reconstruction investment fund for both the United States and and Ukraine well as I see it although the uh it ends up in a stalemate but there is a possibility for the signing of this deal um but uh it's going to it's going to happen sometime in the future anyway that's my gut feeling the question is it doesn't matter whether there's a signing or not of the the deal anyway Trump has officially intervened in the Ukraine war War so the Ukraine war has entered into a new stage or a new phase I'm not going to talk about what would happen to the war or to the to the deal the question I'm going to concentrate on today is uh how Beijing look at it how Beijing looks at it or what's Beijing the take of it and how they're going to respond to it since the war has entered into a new stage or a new phase it um it breaks away from beijing's original calculation and strategy as we mentioned before beijing's original calculation of the war is like this there are several uh points to be considered there are several points to be considered the first one is Beijing was hoping or has been hoping the war will become a protracted one it'll prolong for uh months and years or even a little bit longer so that Beijing could have a Leisure Time to handle it and that's Point number one point number two we said that uh Beijing is adopting a strategy of uh using the lower ranking horse to to run against the or to compete against the top ranking horses of the king and of the Royals that's how we CED the uh the author of the The Arts of War s and how he helped his uh Master to win the uh the horse the horse what the a score of 2 to one and then end up in in winning that's the second consideration of Beijing the third consideration on beijing's part is how to use this war to wear out the strength or wear out the national capabilities of the United States European countries and even Russia so that Beijing could uh stay away from their tension and they will probably lose tension Beijing will be out out of the way and then Beijing would get a get a room to develop its capability just in case when they need it sometime in the future so out of that consideration Beijing managed to help help Russia to prolong the war and to fight the war a little bit better on the on the Russian Side by buying more oil or petroleum and natural gases and minerals and so on and so forth from Russia and to sell more chips more will use um Commodities and more daa supplies to Russia and so that it can help Russia in that way and of course diplomatically Beijing has been trying to help out Russia in many International occasions and if everything goes well for them for both Beijing and Moscow and what's on Shi jinping's mind is if opportunity offers itself heals his and then he'll attack Taiwan and incorporate Taiwan when the time comes and lastly in order to uh weaken or to uh undermine the United States Beijing started a propaganda war against the United States they've been accusing the United States or attacking the United States of how United States does not really want peace how United States want to instigate the war how how the United States want to prolong the war by setting more arms more weapons to Ukraine and so on and so forth but anyway now that as we pointed out before if Trump has officially entered into this war has intervened in the war and pushing for a ceasefire if not for a a complete peace then anyway the war will come to stop for a moment at least so what what happen so that means all the calculation on the Beijing side don't work at least it'll stop working it's not it's not the the thing does not happen as they wished so the biggest fear on Beijing side emerges now that is they cannot rule out the possibility that uh Trump is plotting something big he may be thinking of uh turn uh join hands with with Russia and turn against China turn against Beijing and then there's a possibility that uh Putin will take it uh will probably join hands with uh with with Republic would join hands with Trump and then that's what they called a revers Nixon card and that's the biggest fear uh for Beijing at this moment and this is something that we need to talk about so now the big question is if the possibility of a a coal between the United States and Russia and the purpose for that Coalition is to uh to deal with Beijing so what can they what can they do what can Beijing do facing this kind of dilemma well the thing can be uh divided into several parts or into several sub questions sub question number one is how to deal with Russia at this moment or at this juncture so as we see it uh she would do as much as he can to ingratiate himself with Putin and so that uh he can woo him he can keep uh keep ping on his he could keep ping on his side so we saw that uh he he accepted the visit of Serge Shu uh the defense minister from Russia and they had the warm conversation and then they say some this said some nice things about about each other in public and secondly shining went out to public and shouted propaganda at uh at puin uh by saying that uh we're we're close allies we've been good friends for many years and many decades and we uh cover each other we have covered each other's back for so many years we have a very robust friendship and in terms of our cooperation there's no ceiling to it and all kinds of good things about uh how he would enjoyed his relations with Russia and with Putin himself and then they even go as far as as saying that well in uh in May in early May on May the 8th I shiin ping will pay a visit to Moscow to participate in your in a ceremony uh celebrating the the vict V Victory Day the victory against Nazi invion so I'll participate all kind of Ceremonies and to to help you out and that's what's going to happen in May and of course and reciprocally puin says well I will visit Beijing uh sometime in August or in September when you celebrate the 80th anniversary of fighting against Japanese invasion and I'll be there so uh we're are Alliance of blood and and that's how they say it and of course in addition to the Diplomatic gestures shim says that I will buy more oil from you I buy more natural gases minerals and uh raw materials uh far Farm producers and more Meats from you and also do more chips more due uses um supplies and data supplies anyway shiin ping will try very much even go out of his way to keep Russia on his side and make sure Russia does not change its mind about their relations shining does not want to go shining does not want to be isolated or be uh left in in left in cool shinin does not want to end up in nothing so uh he has to stay in the game and uh keeping buing on this side is probably the best way to do it the second question is how Shi Jinping is going to deal with Trump or deal with the United States the major worries about uh about the United States on shiin Ping's part is uh how to deal with this possible coming uh trade war or tariff war and then the ongoing strategic containment by the United States against China China or how he should deal with them so in order to deal with these questions he has to prepare for war first a preparation for ter war is is coming it's on the horizon and second is to uh prepare for the possibility of an uh probably eventual U military conflict sometime in the future so he has to prepare for these wars as for the uh the negotiations or the talks between the United States and Russia which happened a few days ago on the surface shiin pin would have to say well this is a good idea so he has to praise it he has to show support for it otherwise he'll be the one that sabotaging the the uh peace talk efforts and that's not not a good image for him so he he has to show that but deep down inside he doesn't want the the the peace uh to be to be true to be reality like I said like I pointed out before shinin wants to see the war become a protracted one so that uh he could develop himself and uh without being noticed and then eventually use the the capability to achieve his own purpose so if it's at all possible he will try to undermine the uh the peace talks or at least the the the the effort to reach peace among all the these participants or even to the point of uh sabotaging it if he can do that but on the surface he's very very careful he's very prudent not to enrage Trump because he knows that Trump is a tough guy is somebody you don't want to you don't want to see him get angry anyway so so basically that's his uh strategy toward the United States and toward president Trump on this issue if things get out of hand and out of his control and there's no other way to go shinin will probably use Taiwan as a leverage as a chest piece to check against United States by stting another military exercise against Taiwan or even to the point of uh conducting a blockade against Taiwan or creating what we call the fifth straight crisis or fifth taian straight crisis using that again using that as a chip or as a leverage to fight against the United States the third part of shin pin's calculation on the issue is U toward the European countries the main purpose on the Chinese side or on the Beijing side is try to utilize the contradiction between United States and the European countries so that since the uh European countries seem to be be agonized by Trump or by the United States so shining or the communist China would try to oo the European countries try to win them over and uh so that they can isolate so that they can isolate the United States internationally but it cannot go it cannot go too far it cannot be too obvious otherwise it'll enrage uh Trump and which is not a good thing which is not a good idea so let to say there's a very limited room for uh for Beijing to utilize the contradiction between the United States and the European countries and the only or the very few one of the very few policy options Beijing can use is that uh economy and trade and that's probably about it and that's the third aspect the last one is for Ukraine how will Beijing deal with Ukraine at this juncture uh on the surface since the deterioration of the relationship between Ukraine and the United States and there leaves a room for Beijing to maneuver but uh probably not as much as as they wish like I said they Beijing would have to step in if they don't if they don't step in now they'll probably end up in nothing so they would have to step in and they want to have a say in the whole thing to show that they have influence in international in international politics and they have a share in the so-called the the big Power of politics and that's something they want and on the other hand at this moment the Ukraine may want to use China use Comm to China as some kind of a card Trump said to uh seninsky you have no C in your hands and seninsky said well I don't play cards but he has to play car games one time or another so that gives uh Beijing a room to maneuver although very limited Beijing would have to be will have to pretend to be neutral try to play the road of an honest broker in the whole game but like I said the room is still limited but I guess the best shot Beijing could have in in this whole thing is uh to take part or to join hands with other countries to uh participate in the Reconstruction of Ukraine Ukraine is uh devastated by by the bombardment and by the by the shelling and everything on the by the Russians so they have to rebuild their infrastructure uh so building houses roads and uh stations airports and so on and so forth and together with the Upstream uh and the low Stream Industries that's something that Beijing could uh could contribute to the Reconstruction of Ukraine and if the economy of Ukraine has been restored to a certain point then Beijing would love to buy more minerals more natural resources or farming producers from U from Ukraine and that's the that's a best shot that they can have so that leaves us one last question should everything goes well or oh let me put it this way it's not really everything goes well if the the card the reverse the Nixon card really emerges and really comes through namely Russia and the United States join hands to uh deal with China and to check against China uh what can China do or uh let me put it this way well pin sell out well pin sell out Shi Jinping sometime in the future well probably yes but not now because it is a good good deal uh for Putin to hold on to shiin Ping first is should get more uh supplies to fight the war and to prolong the war and to add more cars uh in in his own hand in Putin Putin's hands and for the future so even just for that purpose puin would not turn hostile suddenly to to shining it's not wise for him to do so we cannot predict the exact time pin Putin's betrayal against shiin ping what happen but we can predict the conditions there are two conditions condition number one when pin considers his has got the substantial and uh real interest or some benefits from the United States or even from Trump himself and that's condition number one condition number two according his calculation if he thinks setting out the Beijing could give me more or could yield more interest or return for me then I'll sell him out so the conclusion is the alliance between Russia or between Moscow and in is not as robust as they claim there are as we see it an alliance of convenience and it's temporary it's based on interest if that interest uh vanishes or it interest turns the other way then the whole thing will change toward the other direction so this is something that Beijing really has to worry about and I think that's their major concern at this point of the time and uh things may change in the future so let's see what what happened between uh uh Washington DC and uh KF and then that's probably a a very decisive Factor as something uh to be waiting for sometime something that will happen in the future so I think that's all I want to share with you today I hope you like today's program and whatever anyway if you haven't subscribed yet please subscribe share it with your friends and then uh click the icon Bell so that you'll get a simultaneous notification when we have a new program and I'll see you next time then I'll see you next week [Music]