China’s ICBM Launch Tested Both Missile Capability and Geo-Political Waters | China Truths

Welcome to China Truths. Today we will bring you the following stories. China's ICBM launch tested both missile capability and geopolitical waters. Beijing's repression on US soil a threat to security. Now, let's dive into the details. China's ICBM launch tested both missile capability and geopolitical waters. Last month, China test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile into the South Pacific for the first time in 44 years, raising concerns among nations in the region. The rare test delivered political messaging amid tensions in the western Pacific region, particularly in the South China Sea. It also had a pragmatic purpose, experts told The Epoch Times, evaluating the capabilities of the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force, PLARF. The missile, which carried a dummy warhead, was believed by analysts to be China's newest ICBM, the Dongfeng-41, DF-41, or an older ICBM, the Dongfeng-31AG, DF-31AG. Dongfeng means east wind in Chinese. The DF-41 is China's longest-range ICBM, capable of going 12,000 to 15,000 km, or from 7,500 to 9,500 miles. The DF-31AG has a shorter range of 7,000 to 11,700 km, or from 4,300 miles to 7,300 miles. Fired on September 25 from an undisclosed location, widely believed to be a site on Hainan Island, which sits north of the South China Sea, the missile traveled approximately 12,000 km, or 7,456 miles, and landed near French Polynesia, a group of islands that includes Tahiti. Beijing has called the launch a routine arrangement on the part of the PLARF. Other countries with long-range missiles, such as the United States, Russia, and India, routinely conduct such tests. However, the Chinese military has not fired a long-range missile into the Pacific since 1980. In past years, China has tested its missiles inland, mostly in the remote deserts of northwest China. It's possible the reason for the site change is strictly technical, according to Denny Roy, senior fellow at the Honolulu-based East-West Center. Chinese engineers might have felt they needed to test-fly a missile with a long, relatively flat trajectory, which is more similar to how they would use a long-range missile in combat, rather than usual lofted trajectory to keep the flight within or near Chinese borders, Roy told the Epoch Times in an email interview. Having said that, there are several possible intended political messages. Maritime tracking data viewed by Reuters showed that two of China's most advanced space support, missile-tracking, ships, the Yuanlong-3 and Yuanlong-5, were in the Pacific at the time of the launch. Beijing didn't reveal where the missile had entered the water, but said it had accurately landed in the predetermined sea area. C.L. Wang Xu, an associate research fellow at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research, noted in a phone interview with the Epoch Times that the transportation of the ICBM, either by land or by sea, is an integral part of the exercise. Both the DF-31AG and DF-41 are road-mobile ICBMs. They are more flexible and can be harder to detect and target than their silo-based counterparts, but the transportation of such heavy artillery also requires extra logistical planning to address issues such as road conditions and communications. The PLARF, formerly known as the Second Artillery Force, is the branch of China's military responsible for its land-based nuclear and conventional missile forces. Beijing has modernized the PLARF and expanded its role over the past 15 years, along with China's evolving strategy regarding deterrence, according to a report from the U.S. Army. Any military planner involved in operations in the Asia-Pacific theater must have an understanding of this unique force as it presents a threat to its neighbors, specifically Taiwan, and maintains the ability to influence local, regional, and global military operations, according to the report. The test in September was launched after a series of corruption scandals led to doubts about the PLARF's capabilities, and amid increased tensions between Beijing and its neighbors in the region. Its timing ahead of elections in the United States and Japan may also be significant, according to analysts. Besides the technical necessity of the test, analysts say Beijing's test of ICBM in the Pacific Ocean may carry a number of political messages to both domestic and foreign audiences. First and foremost, it was intended to discourage the United States from getting involved in conflicts in the Indo-Pacific, they said. Beijing sent a signal to its adversaries that our missile has the capacity to threaten you. The signal is very clear, Xu said. The signal was meant for the United States and other nations in the region, but mostly the United States, he said. Following a series of encounters between Chinese and Philippine Coast Guard vessels and aircraft in and over the South China Sea, the United States reaffirmed its commitment to the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. As part of an annual military exercise, the U.S. Army deployed its mid-range Taifan missile system to the northern Philippines in April, leading to repeated protests from Beijing. U.S. President Joe Biden has also signed off on military aid to Taiwan on top of regular arms sales, and has repeatedly said U.S. forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, despite a longstanding U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity. U.S. officials have also sought to downplay the president's comments each time. In protest of U.S. weapons sales to Taiwan, Beijing in July rejected Washington's call for more nuclear arms control talks. There are several possible intended political messages that Beijing was trying to send, such as, our strategic rocket forces still work. You'll pay dearly if you try to defend Taiwan. We're not happy about the U.S. Taifan missile system in the Philippines, Roy said. Xi Minchin, a specialist in arms control and Chinese military affairs, told The Epoch Times that Chinese leader Xi Jinping may be emulating President Vladimir Putin's strategy of nuclear blackmail. Putin has threatened nuclear escalation in a bid to deter the West from allowing Ukraine to fire long-range missiles it obtained from the West into Russia. Chin said China's nuclear saber-rattling may also be an attempt to sow doubt among U.S. allies about the United States as a nuclear umbrella, a source of protection for non-nuclear allied states in the event of an attack. Can they really trust the United States to risk the safety of Los Angeles in order to save Tokyo, Australia, or Taipei? Maybe Beijing wants to make these countries consider this and weaken their trust in the credibility of U.S. security guarantees as a nuclear umbrella, Chin said. Eroding trust could prompt more countries to develop their own nuclear capabilities, Chin said. Beijing maintains a no-first-use policy with regard to nuclear weapons, and has urged other nuclear powers to make the same promises. However, analysts are skeptical of China's willingness to stick to its own policy in a war scenario. Commenting on the fear that Beijing will threaten to use nuclear weapons in a potential conflict in the Indo-Pacific, Xu said the Chinese government will also have to consider U.S. nuclear deterrence. At present, China has a much smaller number of operational warheads than either Russia, which has about 4,380, or the United States, which has about 3,708. However, the Chinese government is in the midst of a rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal. In a 2020 report, the U.S. Department of Defense estimated that China's arsenal would grow to about 200 warheads by 2025. By May of 2023, however, it estimated that China already had more than 500 operational warheads. It projected that the number would double by 2030, with many of the warheads deployed at higher readiness levels. An annual arms report published in June by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimated that China could potentially have at least as many ICBMs as either Russia or the United States by 2030. In addition, China's deployment of the medium-range ballistic missile DF-17, which carries the DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicle, is expected to continue to transform the PLA's missile force, according to a 2023 Defense Department report. However, the PLAAF relies heavily on its 231 ZNH-6 bombers. Although the bombers have been continually improved and upgraded, for instance, to carry hypersonic anti-ship missiles, the fact remains that they are Soviet-era aircraft. Analysts say China's reliance on the vintage aircraft indicates that it still has a way to go to achieve a credible nuclear triad. Vipin Narang served as U.S. Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy until August. Speaking to the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, Narang said the U.S. president has issued updated nuclear weapons employment guidance, due to an unprecedented situation, in which multiple nuclear challengers are rapidly modernizing and expanding their nuclear arsenals, and openly threatening to employ nuclear weapons to achieve their aims. Beijing's repression on U.S. soil a threat to security The Chinese government is extending its long arm of repression into the United States, a phenomenon that is extremely dangerous to Americans and poses serious implications for U.S. national security, a U.S. State Department official has warned. At an event hosted by the International Republican Institute on October 9, Daphna Rand, the newly confirmed U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, said Americans should be aware of China's growing efforts to suppress descending voices on American soil. The PRC has pioneered, and others have followed, a practice of transnational repression, Rand said, using an acronym for China's official name, the People's Republic of China. Not only do they go after dissidents and political oppositionists and civil society and journalists and bloggers within the PRC, but now are emboldened to go after dissidents and Chinese nationals, and maybe those who have been exiled or fled. This is extremely dangerous to the American taxpayer. This means that the United States is fair game for the PRC and others, she added. The Chinese government is known for using physical and digital threats and intimidation, coercion by proxy, technical espionage, and unexplained disappearances to carry out repression outside of its borders, the U.S. State Department said in a report published in April. Washington-based advocacy group Hong Kong Democracy Council, HKDC, applauded Rand for speaking out against Beijing's transnational repression. There's substantial commitment in the U.S. government to countering CCP, transnational repression, but effective action must follow the rhetoric more consistently, the group wrote in a post on the social media platform X on October 10. As an example of Beijing's repression in the United States, HKDC pointed to its recent report on attacks against peaceful protesters during Chinese leader Xi Jinping's visit to San Francisco in November last year. The group said it had found little to no effective U.S. government response so far to their report, even though the attacks occurred in broad daylight while U.S. President Joe Biden and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo were also present at the time. The report used open-source facial recognition technology and found that 12 leaders of Beijing influence groups participated in the attacks in San Francisco during Xi's visit. HKDC offered several recommendations to the U.S. government in their report, including asking Congress to pass legislation related to combating transnational repression and urging the U.S. Department of Justice to investigate China's United Front groups. On September 25, the House advanced the Bipartisan Shield Against CCP Act, H.R. 9668, after a voice vote by the Homeland Security Committee. The House is expected to pass the bill when it reconvenes after the November elections, according to a press release from the office of Rep. Tom Swozy, a Democrat from New York, who co-led the legislation with Rep. Dale Strong, a Republican from Alabama. The threats to our homeland from the Chinese Communist Party should deeply concern every American. These threats should not be tolerated and cannot go unchecked, said Swozy, co-chair of the Congressional Uyghur Caucus, in a statement on September 26. The legislation would require the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to establish a working group to access, identify, and counter homeland security threats associated with the Chinese government. According to the language of the bill, the threats would include malign influence operations and transnational repression targeting United States persons, threats to U.S. critical infrastructure, and exploitation of vulnerabilities in the United States' export control regime.