Missiles over China: Military power struggles explode!

Hi, everyone. Welcome to Laze Rule Talk. We meet again. All right, it's Thursday, almost the weekend. Okay, how's everyone doing? Okay, all right. All the world feels like a powder keg right now. The US government changed the name of its Defense Department to War Department. Meanwhile, the Chinese military has been engaging in very dangerous activities. Let's find out what they're up to and see if we're getting ever closer to war. After the September 3rd military parade, various units of the PLA began conducting unusual activities. Most notably, in Weifang, Shandong, people saw what looked like a missile interception blazing across the night The same day, long columns of tanks and armored vehicles rode into downtown Tangshan, Hebei, in broad daylight. People asked, was this a drill or an internal fight of some sort? At the same time, the PLA's Eastern Theater Command published a provocative song that sounded like war declaration targeting Taiwan. Is the CCP preparing its troops for war or is it something brewing inside the PLA with factions fighting each other? Let's go through them one by one before we discuss some of the PLA's recent personnel changes. Okay, so let's start with the explosions in Weifang, Shandong. It took place on September 12th, around 9pm. People not only in Weifang, but also in Yuzhou and other parts of the province, or even nearby provinces, saw an unbelievable sight, a bright torch-like object racing along a parabolic path, and it's much faster than a normal plane. Witnesses saw another glowing object, a smaller one, shoot up from the ground and quickly close in, and then there's a blinding flash and a thunderous explosion. Okay, so let me play the video. No, this is not the video. What happened? Okay, here's the video. Okay, so this is the video. Let me make this bigger so you can see better. I think this will be better. Yeah, so see the time code at the top? It's a little after 9 o'clock, 2102. Okay, so I'm going to play this. Let's see, I'm going to play this. Okay, so this was a little after 9 o'clock. Some people even said that they could smell burning in the air. And then five minutes later, it happened again. So now, let's see, is it happening again? And it's, yeah, this is the second one. And then they're from different angles, close up. And this is, okay, and then there's another one. And this is the person. Okay, all right, so the person was basically saying, my goodness, is it a missile? It is a missile, looks like a missile. Okay, so because it was only nine at night, many people saw it. And then words started to spread, and the event quickly topped social media's trending list. Chinese media widely reported it. When reporters called WIFO's Emergency Management Bureau, they first said they had no information, then changed their tune to say they'd received a report but hadn't gotten anything from the investigation. So to this date, neither the military nor civilian authorities have given a formal explanation. Some state media tried to avoid naming WIFO, the city, in their reporting and only mentioned Shandong province. The official silence fueled speculation. Was it a weapons test, a missile intercept, or even a UFO shoot down? Some even suggested the PLA intercepted two North Korean missiles, but that was highly unlikely. Now, some netizens did their research and dug up a notice from China Maritime Safety Administration the day before. So on September the 11th, the administration warned that from the afternoon of September the 12th, to the noon on the 14th, there would be live fire military drills in two designated areas of the Bohai area. So this is the map that netizens drew up based on the definition. People plotted the official coordinates on a map and compared them to the explosion locations. So this is the map. There's a zone A and then there's a zone B. And then they compare that to the actual explosions and they matched. The interceptions happened in the coastal B zone with launch points on shore. So that makes the event a planned live fire exercise by the PLA and not a UFO shoot down or the North Korean missile interception. But this planned missile drill looked very odd. Let me explain why. In the past, the PLA usually conducted missile tests in sparsely populated regions, normally in the West, in Western China, or out at sea. Doing a live missile test over a dense city like Weifang is unheard of. So people wonder why is that? Why did the CCP do that? State media's intentional omission of Weifang might have given us a hint. So Weifang was once a major base of the old Jinan military region and home to the 26th Group Army. After Xi Jinping's 2016 military reform, the 26th was reorganized into the 80th Group Army, with Weifang remaining its headquarters. And its 69th Combined Arms Brigade, known as the Fierce Tiger Brigade, fields tanks and armored vehicles specializing in mechanized combat. So the 80th is a modern combined arms force with units for air defense, aviation, and electronic warfare, including SAM systems designed for low and medium altitude interception, capable of downing planes, helicopters, drones, or cruise missiles. So the capabilities of this unit based in Weifang match the scenes witnessed in the city in the evening of the 12th. So here's the real question. If this was really a scheduled drill, why would they hold it so closely to the city but kept it as a secret? Because this risked unnecessary public panic. Remember, Weifang is only 260 miles or 400 kilometers away from Beijing. So isn't that dangerous? Well, that's precisely the intention. So my take, or some analysts' take, is this. This live fire drill wasn't meant for external audiences, such as the US and its allies in the Pacific. It was meant for internal audiences. Think about it. Weifang sits on Bohai Bay, China's inner sea, far from the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea. So showing muscle here won't get any reaction or attention from the United States, Japan, or Taiwan. So it's not for external deterrence. So you may say, well, it's aimed at pumping up nationalism at home. That doesn't fit either. If Beijing wants propaganda value, they'd stage it on the Taiwan frontline, like Fujian, which is right next to the Taiwan Strait, or near the South China Sea, next to the Philippines. That's where they can stir up tension. By contrast, staging something in England, Weifang, in a way that spooks the public, points to one purpose, and one purpose only, to intimidate internal political opponents in Beijing. And there is a key clue. On the same day, on September 12th, it wasn't just Weifang showing military movement. In Tangshan, Hebei, in broad daylight, large numbers of tanks and armored vehicles drove straight through city streets. Do I have a picture? Yeah. So there's a video showing this. So the pictures were taken from the video, and I have another video to show you. Here we go. So this was taken from Tangshan. Now, Tangshan is only 90 miles away from Beijing, and it's one of the bases for the 82nd Group Army under the Central Theater Command. And so it's right outside Beijing. It's only 90 miles away. And additionally, in Shijiazhuang, Hebei, residents across multiple districts reported a massive boom sound or explosion sound around 10.30 in the morning on that day. And the shock was felt many miles away, shaking houses and windows. So let's put the map together. Let me see. Do I have a map? Oh, here we go. Here we go. Where's the map? Here's the map. Let me make this bigger. So you see, Beijing, Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, and Weifang, they're all in a cluster in that area. So all the military movements or the drills are right. You can see that the three cities, Beijing is the top left one. The top right one is Tangshan. Weifang is the lower right one, and then Shijiazhuang is the lower left. So you see all three cities surrounded Beijing. So that's where all the military activities took place on September the 12th. And they're so far away from Taiwan. Taiwan is not anywhere close. So it was not meant to intimidate Taiwan or for propaganda value. So now Weifang's 80th Army belongs to the Northern Theater. Tangshan's 82nd Army belongs to the Central Theater. And Shijiazhuang is the headquarters of the Central Theater Command, which fields around 600,000 troops around Beijing. So all of these activities seem to aim at one place, Beijing, or those who are running Beijing. Now, both the North and Central Theaters are widely believed to be firmly controlled or are firmly under the control of Zhang Youxia. The Central Theater has long been rumored to be restive under Xi Jinping. On the same day, these Beijing shield PLA formations showed power in unusual, very public ways. Missiles, shots in the sky, tanks on the streets, and live testing of ammunition. So the message is loud and clear. To any restless individuals in Zhongnanhai, behave, or you will be removed at any time. These live PLA drills serve as a stern warning, not to outside enemies, but to internal enemies. Those loyal to Xi Jinping don't even think about making a move. By the way, the Central Theater Command currently doesn't have a commander or a political commissar. Its commander, Wang Qiang, and political commissar, Xu Deqing. There they are. These two have been missing. They have both disappeared. So people believe Zhang Youxia is the person who actually controls the Central Theater Command. The Central Theater is the most important one because it has the responsibility of protecting the capital city. Now, before the wave of missile mystery even cleared, another bombshell hit. Last Saturday, that's September 13th, the day after actually, the Eastern Theater Command pushed a provocative song on WeChat called Plant the Flag of Victory on the Island of Taiwan. Where is that? Okay, yeah, this is actually the image taken from that music TV. So it was a three-minute song released by the Eastern Theater Command. And it said that they want to use the song to forge courage, use oath to fire up combat skill, and use the song to rally breakthrough power. So this three-minute music video, I mean the footage, the music video jumps from ancient battle scenes to 1949 Civil War footages over a narrator saying, our million-man army boldly crossed the Yangtze River and shattered the so-called the nationalist impenetrable river defense, something like that. The video also shows amphibious landings, island seizure drills, and missile launches, and with repeated shots of Taiwan 101 and other Taiwan landmarks. Now, you know the PLA's Eastern Theater is the one responsible for Taiwan operations. So the release of such a provocative song caused wide speculation. Meanwhile, there are also widespread claims in China, inside China, about the CCP's plan to take Taiwan before 2027 by force. Even I've heard from people that this plan had been communicated down to grassroots level. So put together the visuals, the music, the movements, and the timing, the message is very clear. It is a warning and war mobilization targeting Taiwan. But here's the question, is it real? Who's behind it? Okay, so the Eastern Theater Command was the unit in charge of Taiwan operation, and it used to be in the hand of the missing vice chairman, He Weidong. Do I have a picture of them? Here's the dynamic duel that has been missing. He used to be the commander of the Eastern Theater Command, but he's been missing since March. And this theater is comprised of the 71st, 72nd, and 73rd Group Armies. It's said that the song was published by the political department of the 92nd Brigade in the 73rd Group Army. Now the 73rd Group Army is probably the most loyal PLA unit to Xi Jinping. It was formerly the famous 31st Group Army in Fujian, which is Xi Jinping's most loyal base where many of his officers rose. Xi Jinping interacted with this 31st Group Army when he was a provincial leader in Fujian. So He Weidong and the disgraced Admiral Miao Hua, the two men on the screen, they both came from this unit. And He Weidong used to be the chief of staff and deputy commander of that group army. So that's where they built their relationship with Xi Jinping. So that is why the 73rd Group Army is closely tied to Xi Jinping, because its predecessor was the 31st Group Army. So it's not random that a brigade published this provocative war song. This is clearly the message from those still loyal to Xi Jinping. And the song is their work. Now Xi Jinping, we know, has used Taiwan unification as justification for his third term and possibly fourth term. Now he's likely to resort to war to escape his doomed fate. He would be, if he starts a war, he would be a wartime leader ruling indefinitely. So some say he's timid and won't actually start a war. But I think he will use the optics of a war to justify his power. And that's what the song, the releasing of the song was for. Now the Chinese media corroborated Xi's idea by amplifying the message. So I'm going to just read you one that says this. So this is from a Chinese media. It says, these moves are no longer far sea training meant as indirect deterrence. There are direct closing pressure. On top of that, the latest activity of China's third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, is making Taiwan independence forces even more uneasy. The Fujian recently transited the Taiwan Strait and headed to the China Sea for its ninth sea trial. And then it concluded with this message. It says, bottom line, the Eastern Theater Commands new song release, the PLA's joint patrols, and the Fujian's expected commissioning all signal that unification is speeding up. Taking Taiwan is no longer just talk. It's a preview of action. Taiwan independence is heading for a dead end. So goal number one is to promote that war rhetoric to justify Xi Jinping's indefinite rule. Now there's a second agenda. The release of the song may be a direct response from the Xi faction in the military to the Zhang faction's live fire drill the night before. Now think about it. If Zhang Youxia is the de facto leader in the military and isn't interested in starting a war right away, Xi's loyalists will keep stirring the pot to make things difficult for him. They will always make these provocative or dangerous moves to cause troubles for him, knowing that Zhang isn't interested in starting a war. But Xi's faction will keep provoking war without actually starting one. So this is actually very dangerous for the PLA and for everyone else. A war can be accidentally set up or set off. So to summarize my point, the activities we've seen in the past week from different PLA theaters are driven by different factions with different objectives. So are these signs of armed friction? Well, behind them you can feel the deep rifts and instability at the top of the CCP and within the PLA. And across all anomalies, all these anomalies, local authorities deny knowledge as if ordered to keep silent. And that silence has only fueled speculation that the recent explosions in Weifang and the maneuvers in the rows of tanks in Tangshan were a clash within the PLA itself between Xi loyalists and those aligned with Zhang Youxia. Okay, so that brings us to the next question. Who is winning the internal war? Well, let me talk about some of the personnel changes to get an idea of who has gained the upper hand. So first things first, let's talk about this guy. This man, a week ago, a reliable source revealed that Zhong Shaojun, the former director of the CMC's general office, and also the head of the CMC chairman's office, and later political commissar of the National Defense University, has not only retired from active duty, but also withdrawn from politics altogether. If true, this would mark another major blow to Xi Jinping. Now, Zhong was one of Xi's closest confidants. It was said that this man actually took a bullet for Xi Jinping during the early years. Xi Jinping survived, I think, several assassination attempts. So the reason why Xi trusts this man very much is that he actually took a bullet, and one of the bullets is still in his body. They cannot take it out, or it will risk his life. And so he started working for Xi Jinping when Xi was the party secretary in Zhejiang. And among Xi's followers in Zhejiang, Zhong Shaojun was the only one who followed Xi from Zhejiang to Shanghai, and then to Beijing, and finally into the Central Military Commission. And Xi Jinping made him director of the powerful CMC general office, even though this guy had never served a day in the military. So his position gave him a unique influence. Any senior officer hoping for promotion had to go through him. I mean, basically, he oversees everything. He is the chief of staff for Xi Jinping in the military. Now, unfortunately, he clashed with Zhang Youxia, and they clashed terribly. And after the rocket force corruption scandal broke, somehow this guy was implicated. Zhang Youxia somehow investigated him and brought the matter to Xi Jinping. That was before this fight became very ugly, and Xi Jinping was forced to reassign him. So that's why in April 2024, that's last April, Zhong Shaojun became the political commissar at the National Defense University. It was a clear demotion, and it was never formally announced. We heard rumors, but there was no official announcement. Then this August, when Singapore's defense minister went to Beijing, they released a photo with Zhong Shaojun and described him as the political commissar of the National Defense University, so confirming the rumor from a year ago. But curiously, right after that, the picture was released by the Singaporeans, but Chinese Xinhua or Chinese social media censored any mention or photos of this guy. And then just days later, after the Singaporeans released the photo, rumors spread that Zhong Shaojun had been removed from the Defense University. So that means he's not even with the Defense University. He's only 57 years old. He should have had years left in his career. Instead, he's completely sidelined, and this does not look good for Xi Jinping. That means Xi Jinping cannot even protect his people in a non-essential position. So that does not look good for Xi Jinping. Okay, the second case is the fall of the armed police force commander, General Wang Chunying. There he is. So we have kept saying that he's gone, he's gone, because he has disappeared. Now it's official. The PAP or the armed police, people's armed police, they're never people's police. Anyway, the PAP is the regime's iron fist for internal control. Now both Wang Chunying and his political commissar are gone, but they are both Xi Jinping's loyalists. They're both sidelined. Instead, Zhang Youxia put in this team to replace them. So now they're in the hands of Cao Junzhang, who's now the acting commander, and then Fu Wenhua, who was previously the commander of Beijing garrison. So he has moved in. Some say he's the deputy commander, but I think he's the political commissar. So I'm not quite sure what Fu Wenhua's exact role is. Now, Wang, this guy, he is removed with three other generals. There are three lieutenant generals, Zhang Ling, the head of the CMC logistics support department, Gao Daguang, political commissar of the joint logistics support force, and then Wang Zhibin, disciplinary chief of the rocket force. These three had not been previously reported as under investigation. Their sudden purge suggests a wider fallout linked to the downfall of Miao Huan and He Weidong, Xi Jinping's closest allies in the PLA. Now, right after the parade, state media also reviewed a sweeping review of military procurement going back nine years to 2016. So the PLA is going through all military procurement transactions or contracts going back nine years. Now, the rocket force scandal already brought down three successive commanders and various deputy commanders and political commissars. Now, with the back check expanded to the entire logistics system, army, navy, air force, cyber, and more, it signals a massive purge in the military's supply and procurement chains. While logistics has always been a lucrative area, many leaders were Xi Jinping's own appointees. So that just suggests more heads will roll. All right, so let me sum up. So in the end, the missiles over Weifang and the tanks in Tangshan, all the three-minute war song weren't just noise. They were messages. One camp fluxed around Beijing. The other waved the Taiwan banner. And if power in Beijing now depends on who scares who first or who scares more, what happens when fear misfires? Senseless wars don't always start with a declaration. They start with miscalculation and incidents. So the question isn't only whether Xi Jinping can hold the army. It's whether anyone can hold the brakes. So let's keep our eyes on the next drill, fire drill, fire drill, I call them fire drills, the next song or the next disappearance. Those may be the last warnings we get before events outrun their owners. All right, so that's all I have. But I want to tell you, you know what, lately the algorithm is not on my side. And I have a fan who sent me a video that kind of explains that I haven't got time to watch it. It's in German. But it's very nice of him to send me that video explaining. But I was told that there's a hype button now. It's a new feature on YouTube. Like if you hit the hype button, which looks like a fiery star, it looks orangey. And then if you hit that button for me, it's going to push the algorithm in favor of me. So everyone, could you do me a favor? Can you find the hype button? And actually, I have that in both channels, both Lazy Road Talk and Lazy Looking Glass. So if you could help me with that, I'd really appreciate it. Now, let me tell you the Looking Glass video for this week is a video that explains Hong Kong's downfall, realistically and supernaturally. I hope you will like it. People try to explain. I don't think you've ever heard of the explanation from those two perspectives. There are many people who explained Hong Kong's downfall, but these two are unique. So I hope you enjoy that. Alrighty, let's see. All right, let's see what people have for me. Questions. Oh, let me first acknowledge the people who gave me super stickers. I really appreciate that. All right, let's see. Gina, love your talks, Lei. You are intel, intelligent and beautiful. Oh, thank you. Well, a few of you sent encouraging emails to me after my response or my responses to the trolls last week. It's very nice of you. Yeah. Well, thank you. Thank you. Elaine Long. Thank you. Great style and very informative channel. Well, thank you. I appreciate that, Elaine. Paul Levchak. Howdy. Okay. I like the improved sound. The Shure Company make a mean microphone. Any breaking China news from the Polish-Belarusian border since the Poles slammed the door shut? Yeah, I think, didn't Wang Yi went to Poland trying to have the Poles reopen the border because all these trains, the China-European trains are stuck at the border, right? But I don't think the Poles will open the border until they get the situation under control. But I don't know if you've heard this, but this is what I heard. And I've seen pictures. The Russians and the Belarusians are holding a military exercise together with some of their advanced weapons. And guess who was there? Americans. Apparently, they invited some American observers at their military exercise. And it was said that Xi Jinping was freaked out by that, by Americans' presence at a Russian and Belarusian military exercise. So I thought that was very interesting. So that's why people were saying that a real conflict between NATO and Russia is not likely because of that. So that's my update. Hope it's helpful. Miguel Velareal. Well, thank you, Miguel. All right, let's see. Wes Downer. Well, thank you, Wes. Here's a question from Drusilla. Okay, well, thank you, Drusilla, for always being there for me. How are you? I think she, Netanyahu, and Zelensky all want war so they can stay in power. They know the people would get rid of them. They know the people will get rid of them. Well, Xi Jinping hasn't started a war yet. Actually, Xi Jinping is actually extremely risk-averse. I don't think he's... Personally, he wants to start a war. He knows it will be ugly and he could be toppled overnight because his PLA soldiers or officers could turn against him. But the thing is, with the way the political struggles happening within the PLA, things can get out of control because his people is really using these provocative moves to cause troubles for Zhang Youxiang and to support Xi Jinping's power. But those provocative moves could be very dangerous. So as much as he is risk-averse, he has no control over his military. Things can go very wrong and a war can accidentally be started. That's what I fear. Okay, let's see. Someone's... Yeah, let me... I'm just going to... I'm sorry, pick some random question. Texas Panda. Okay, I have not seen it on any channel I watch. You mean what you haven't seen? You mean, oh, what I mentioned? The fact that American delegates were at the Russian-Belarusian military exercise? You have not seen that? Yeah. I saw that. A Chinese channel reported that. And I saw pictures, pictures of Americans in Belarus. And they said that Xi Jinping freaked out. I would believe it. He would. So, well, now you're hearing it. Kevin Stankiewicz. How do we know if a CCP-China civil war or a coup d'etat has started? Well, a coup d'etat has already started two years ago. I don't know. I want to do a program this weekend about how Xi Jinping pulled off a coup d'etat against the party elders at the 20th Party Congress. And remember how he removed Hu Jintao from the podium? That's when... Yeah, because he really actually... All factions had agreed on the leadership team. But Xi Jinping changed it last minute. He changed it last minute and hid the fact from the party elders. So when Hu Jintao was kind of suspicious of it, he was trying to find out. Li Jianshu, they pulled the folder away from him and eventually Xi Jinping escorted him out. People said that's a coup that Xi Jinping pulled off at the 20th Party Congress with help from, guess who? Zhang Youxia. Without military support, he wasn't able to be successful. But I could talk about that. And then they say that Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping are fighting over some mysterious documents right now before they have a final showdown or face-off. So the two sides are fighting, trying to find some mysterious documents and people are talking about what those documents are. But I could potentially talk about that this weekend. It's all CCP political drama, but it's very interesting. All right. Let's see. Deweydle Migs, don't know if you've noticed, but the China military propaganda on X recently is everywhere about how great their equipment is. Yeah, the Chinese propaganda is everywhere. That's probably the reason why the YouTube algorithm is in my favor. I think somehow China has, I don't know, deployed some kind of cyber, they have some kind of cyber engineering to influence YouTube's algorithm. Not in my favor. So yeah, they are everywhere. I noticed that. Yeah, Chris copied the link to the video in the comment. Let's see. All right. Paul. Well, thank you, Paul. Yes, we did show up as guests to observe Zapad. Oh, okay. That's the name of the military exercise. Wes Downer, do people on the mainland know traditional Chinese characters at all? Not the young people, but older generations do. I mean, some people can read some traditional characters, but some they can't. I mean, people can read, but they cannot write. Reading it is one thing and writing is another. So I don't think so. I think the younger generations cannot. It's very sad. All right. Okay, here's a comment from Queen Semiramis. Lei, are the Chinese media covering this story? Which story? Well, the Chinese media covered the story about the explosion in Wei Fang, but they didn't get to the bottom of it. They didn't cover the way I did. They just said, oh, there's an explosion, and then they contact the emergency management office and try to find out what it is, but they didn't get an answer. They just described what they saw, but they didn't provide any explanation. But the Chinese media did cover that explosion, the two explosions that were seven minutes apart. Yeah. So that's what I think, that's what I believe it's planned. It's planned. It's official. Steve, Kim, love your work, Lei. Keep sticking to the little pinks. Okay. Are they here again? Thank you, Steve. All right. Michael said, yes, my wife does. The older generations do. I don't know about the current generations. I doubt it. I cannot read all the traditional fonts either. I can read some, but not all, and I cannot write them. Someone said, Lei's channel is the best source of information I have for Chinese affairs. So glad you are here. Well, thank you. All right. Lots of pro-CCP on YouTube. Yeah, I think this is a sudden surge recently, and they probably, because of their presence, they pushed my video, my channel down. EJ Belch, Lei, are you still monetized by YouTube because two vloggers like China In Focus and whatever Crossroad have been demonetized for so long for being critical of China? I am. Thank God. I am. I'm being monetized. Yeah. So I am. Although I think I should, you know, if you look at, I have over 300,000, almost 350,000 subscribers, but the views are not proportionate to that. The views are very low. But I know that I have very loyal fans or subscribers. So the views are not proportionate to my subscriber base. And so, I mean, something's going on. Yeah. Something's going on in the back end. All right. Okay. All right. Someone said, Ross Mills, are you going to be safe, Lei? Please take care of yourself. Well, I am staying very low key, out of trouble. And I keep a positive, optimistic outlook to things in general to life. And yeah, I'm not I'm not worried. Yeah. So I'm generally up optimistic. All right. Let's see. One more question. That's it. Oh, here's a question from Alexandru Chisalka. Which date will the fourth plenum be? Is there a real chance to see Xi Gan at that event? The real date has not been set yet. It's announced that it will be in October, but there's no specific date yet. People believe it will be in the second half of October. Is there a real chance to see? Yes, there's still a real chance. Most people believe that he will partially relinquish some of his responsibilities. So there are three possibilities. There's no change to his titles. That's the worst. And then the best is he will step down. They will probably give a health as a reason that he will just give up all three positions and go into retirement. And then there's something in between that he may give up the party leader or give up the chairman of the military commission and only hold on to position like the president of China, which is not important in communist China. It's just a ceremonial title. It does not give him real power. All right. That's all for tonight. I think I reached the bottom of all questions. Oh, here's one. That's all. I think I reached the bottom. Okay. That's all. Thank you very much. And I hope you check out the video in I'll see you over the weekend. Bye-bye.