Has Xi Jinping's Close Ally Miao Hua Been Arrested? Is the Major Change Coming? | China Truths

Welcome to China Truths. In this episode, we will bring you the following story. Has Xi Jinping's close ally Miaohua been arrested? Is the major change coming? Now, let's dive into the details. It's all covered in today's China Truths. Has Xi Jinping's close ally Miaohua been arrested? Is the major change coming? On November 28, Chinese Ministry of Defense spokesperson Wu Qian announced that Miaohua, a member of the Central Military Commission, CMC, and director of the CMC Political Work Department, was under investigation for serious violations of discipline. The decision to suspend Miaohua from his position was made after research by the Party Central Committee. Miaohua is a close confidant of Xi Jinping, the highest leader of the CCP, and one of the key figures helping Xi control military power. Miaohua's investigation deals a significant blow not to him, but to Xi Jinping himself. This is the largest of a series of setbacks Xi has faced since the 20th Party Congress, and it will undoubtedly have profound and far-reaching implications for the CCP's political situation. It may signal that the once-in-a-century great change Xi had hoped for has already arrived, but contrary to his wishes. The CCP has always believed that power comes from the barrel of a gun. Whoever truly controls the military holds the real power in the CCP. Since Xi came to power in 2012, he has focused on seizing control of the military. The key to this control is ensuring that high-ranking military officers are loyal and selected by him. The most critical person in this process is the director of the CMC Political Work Department, who acts as Xi's organizational minister for the military. Zhang Yang, the first director of the CMC Political Work Department, was an important ally of Xi in controlling senior military officers, but in August 2017, he was investigated and later took his own life. After his death, the CCP media portrayed him as a corrupt official who had betrayed his ideals. After Zhang's downfall, Xi handpicked Miaohua, who had a long-standing relationship with Xi from their time together in Fujian, and was seen as Xi's most trusted confidant. Miaohua held the position from 2017 to 2024, overseeing the selection and promotion of senior military officers. However, Miaohua now faces the same fate as Zhang. Over 12 years, Xi has relied on political commissars like Zhang and Miaohua to help manage the military, but neither proved reliable. Is Xi losing his ability to select trustworthy people? At the 20th Party Congress in 2022, Xi succeeded in securing a third term, reaching the peak of his power. However, only a few months later, he faced a series of major setbacks. The first major blow was the disappearance and dismissal of Qin Gang, a leader Xi personally promoted. He was removed from his positions as a central committee member, state councillor, and foreign minister within six months. The second blow was the downfall of senior officers in the rocket force, including commanders and political commissars. The third blow was the investigation of Li Xiangfu, Xi's close ally and the minister of national defence, who was also a product of Xi's promotion. The fourth blow was the investigation of Wei Fenghe, former minister of defence and former commander of the rocket force, who was also personally promoted by Xi. The fifth blow was the investigation of Liu Yazhou, the former political commissar of the National Defence University, who was targeted for corruption, but in reality, he opposed Xi. The sixth blow was the downfall of senior generals Xi promoted, from the air force to the navy, rocket force, strategic support force, and the five major military regions. The seventh blow was the investigation of top executives and state-owned military industry corporations and leading figures in advanced national defence research institutions. Since the 20th Party Congress, the party media has glorified Xi to the extreme, praising him as wise and great. However, just two years after the 20th Party Congress, the series of setbacks has completely undermined Xi's image. Anyone with common sense would see that Xi is not wise or great, but rather, his choice in appointment of officials has been poor, and his ability to manage the military has been inadequate. The most important question is, who really controls the military in China today? If Xi controls it, he would surely protect someone as loyal as Miao Hua, ensuring he could retire peacefully. But Miao Hua's investigation suggests that the real power in the military may lie with Zhang Youxia, the first vice-chairman of the CMC. Since the third plenary session of the 20th Central Committee, rumours have circulated that there has been a soft coup in the CCP, with Xi weakened by illness and Zhang Youxia forcing him out of power. On July 31, a retired professor from Renmin University, Ling Jiefu, published an open letter to Zhang Youxia, stating that Xi had fallen seriously ill and the control of party, state, and military affairs had fallen into Zhang's hands. Since the publication of this letter, there have been no official reactions, indicating that the situation is indeed true. This shows that after Xi fell ill, Zhang Youxia has become the decisive figure controlling the political situation, positioning himself as the military's de facto leader. The change in power could have several reasons. Xi has offended too many high-ranking military officers. Xi's investigation of Li Shangfu has deeply angered Zhang Youxia. Zhang Youxia, who has witnessed Xi's ruthless purges, fears he might suffer the same fate. Zhang Youxia has deep roots in the military and possibly support from CCP elders, especially given his father's influence. Since the summer of 2024, Zhang's position in the military has strengthened significantly. Major changes, such as reshuffles and top military positions, appear to be led by him. Zhang's influence now seems to surpass Xi's, and the investigation of Miao Hua may also be driven by Zhang. Xi is still the general secretary of the Communist Party, president of the People's Republic of China, and chairman of the CMC. However, the analysis suggests that Xi's power has been severely weakened. Due to his many errors in both domestic and foreign policies, and his increasing unpopularity within the party, it is possible that Xi may be forced to resign as general secretary and chairman of the CMC, leaving only the powerless position of president. While it is hard to predict the exact form of Xi's eventual downfall, the trend seems irreversible. Xi's political career seems to be nearing its end. The CCP will likely face a new round of fierce infighting over power, with Zhang Youxia playing a crucial role in this struggle. Reunification of Taiwan has been one of Xi Jinping's lifelong dreams. However, after implementing the Hong Kong national security law and ending the one-country, two-systems arrangement in Hong Kong in 2020, coupled with Taiwan's rejection of this model, peaceful reunification is almost impossible. This leaves military unification as Xi's preferred option. However, to achieve this, the military must be strong. Yet, corruption in the military remains widespread, despite Xi's anti-corruption campaign and military reforms. The recent purges within the military have not eradicated this corruption. The investigation of Miao Hua, as well as others, will likely lead to even more high-ranking officials being removed. The CCP's belief in political supremacy means that political officers are always appointed alongside military commanders. The CMC political work department is the most influential department within the military. The fact that Miao Hua, who held this position for seven years, has been investigated, suggests further instability within the military. In March 2023, Xi Jinping, before returning to China from a visit to Russia, shook hands with President Putin and said, we should work together to push forward the once-in-a-century great change. Now, just over a year later, the great change has arrived, but it is not the change she wanted.