A Strange Move Against Xi Jinping's Oldest Political Ally

Now, a few days ago, Xinhua published what appeared to be an ordinary personnel announcement on its front page, and it just said that Cai Qi would now serve as president of the National Academy of Governance, adding yet another title to his already impressive list of positions. At the same time, former Politburo member Chen Xi was removed from that role. Now, just days earlier, Cai Qi had already appeared at the Central Party School for an event in his new capacity as its president, replacing Chen Xi. That appearance immediately sparked speculation. To most people, this might look like a routine personnel adjustment, but if you follow CCP politics, you know this announcement carries significance far beyond its surface or superficial appearance. Because the National Academy of Governance and the Central Party School are actually one institution operating under two different names, and the Central Party School is no ordinary school. It serves as CCP's highest training institution for senior officials, and perhaps Zhongnanhai's most influential think tank. Senior officials from ministries, provinces, municipalities, and party organs across the country eventually pass through the school's halls, and it's one of the most important political networking centers in the party's state system. Now, traditionally, the president of the Central Party School is a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, so Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping both held that position before becoming CCP leader. Yet Chen Xi broke that convention. After retiring from the Politburo in 2022, he went on to serve as the president of the Central Party School, despite not being a Standing Committee member. That fact alone tells you how much Xi Jinping trusted him, and that is precisely why Chen Xi's removal has attracted so much attention. So who is he, and why does his situation matter? Or let me say this, if there were a list in Saizhongnanhai titled, The Least Likely People to Ever Be Abandoned, Chen Xi's name would probably be near the very top. He has known Xi Jinping for more than 50 years. The story goes back to 1975. At the time, Chen was a factory worker who was selected to study chemical engineering at Tsinghua University. One of his classmates was a young man named Xi Jinping. The two not only studied together, they lived together. They were roommates sleeping in adjacent bunker beds. After graduation, their careers followed a different path. In 1979, Chen Xi returned to Tsinghua to pursue a master's degree. And one of the first things he did after returning to campus was to visit Xi Jinping, who by then was already working in the general office of the Central Military Commission. He was working for China's then-Defense Minister Geng Biao. Over the years, Xi Jinping and Chen Xi's friendship endured. While Xi Jinping was serving in Fujian, Chen Xi was rising through the ranks at Tsinghua University. By the way, Chen Xi spent two years at Stanford University as a visiting scholar. Now, he's also from Fujian. So whenever he returned to Fujian to visit, he made time to meet Xi Jinping, who was an official. So in fact, Chen Xi played a role in several key milestones in Xi Jinping's early political life. He was one of the people who sponsored Xi Jinping's entry into the Communist Party. Public records show that Xi Jinping had applied to join the CCP nine times, but were all rejected until the 10th time when Chen Xi and others sponsored him. Now, later, as a senior leader at Tsinghua University, Chen Xi was also in a position to help Xi Jinping obtain his doctoral degree in law. Whether he actually studied for his degree, we don't know. But supposedly, he got his doctor's degree. Now, these are not small favors that can easily be forgotten, nor are they relationships that can easily be replaced. That is what made Chen Xi unique. Many officials were loyal to Xi Jinping. Many benefited from Xi. But very few could claim to have walked beside him for half a century. Very few could say they knew Xi Jinping before he became a county official, before he became a provincial leader, before he entered Zhongnanhai and became China's paramount leader. But Chen Xi could. And Xi Jinping rewarded that loyalty. As Xi Jinping rose through the ranks, so did Chen Xi. When Xi Jinping became China's top leader, Chen became one of the most important figures in the party's personnel system. So for three consecutive leadership terms, he helped oversee appointments, promotions, and political placements for Xi Jinping throughout the party state apparatus. So in many ways, he became one of the chief architects of Xi's, or the Xi Jinping era, or the personnel structure of the Xi Jinping era. So people say that among all of Xi Jinping's civilian allies, Chen may have been the person that Xi Jinping trusted the longest because of their history, which is why his downfall is so striking. Because if anyone, if someone like Chen can be pushed aside, this is no longer the story of an ordinary official losing his position. This is the story of a 50-year friendship colliding with political reality. And that's why what happens to Chen can never be viewed as merely a story about the change of the president of the party school. This is also a mirror reflecting Xi Jinping's own political standing. So here's the question. So why did Chen Xi fall? There are two competing theories. The first theory argues that Xi Jinping himself removed Chen. And according to this view, Xi Jinping has grown increasingly suspicious of the officials recommended and promoted by his longtime personnel chief. And more and more senior officials run into political trouble. Xi has begun questioning Chen Xi's judgment and loyalty assessments. So under this theory, Chen Xi became a victim of Xi Jinping's growing distrust and paranoia. Okay, here's the second theory. It tells a very different story. This theory argues that Chen Xi was not removed by Xi Jinping at all. Instead, he became a target of anti-Xi forces, particularly elements associated with the party elders and military establishment, because of the role he played in Zhang Youxia, in the Zhang Youxia case. As we've discussed before, the operation against Zhang Youxia unfolded during a seminar held at the central party school. That was Chen Xi's territory. And according to this theory, the people seeking revenge for Zhang Youxia hold Chen Xi partly responsible, and they want him to pay a price. Remember, Zhang Youxia is no ordinary general. He's a princeling, a member of China's revolutionary aristocracy. Chen Xi, by contrast, is not. And in elite CCP politics, that distinction matters. Now you see the difference between these two theories is enormous. The first theory says that Xi Jinping is personally responsible for all of the recent purges and removals, including all the generals who have fallen, such as these two, his head of personnel in the military, General Miao Hua, or Admiral Miao Hua, and his second vice chairman of CMC, He Weidong, and then you have Zhang Youxia, as well as his loyalists who have fallen, Ma Xinrui, former party secretary of Xinjiang, an ally, a close friend of Xi Jinping's wife, Peng Liyuan, and then now Chen Xi. So that was the first theory, which says Xi Jinping was the one who brought all of them down out of paranoia. The second theory, however, says that China is witnessing a brutal power struggle between rival factions, with some officials being taken down by Xi Jinping, and others being taken down by Xi Jinping's opponent. And most famously, they say that these two generals, Miao Hua and He Weidong, were taken down by Zhang Youxia and his allies, the party elders, whereas Ma Xinrui and Chen Xi are taken down by Xi Jinping's opponents, aka the party elders and the military. Now personally, I think the chances that Xi Jinping has suddenly gone mad are quite small. As paranoid as he is, I think the chances that he just suddenly went suspicious of everyone around him and took everyone down, including his friend from college, someone who he has known for 50 years, I think that chance is small. Even if Xi Jinping had become dissatisfied with Chen Xi, okay, his friend from college, there would be little reason to humiliate him this way, because it doesn't serve Xi Jinping himself well. After all, Chen Xi had already stepped down or stepped away from the center of power. His continued role as the president of the Central Party School was essentially an honorary arrangement awarded to him by Xi Jinping at the 20th Party Congress. In another year at the 21st Party Congress, he could have quietly retired and handed the position over in a routine transition. Instead, it was abruptly removed. That doesn't make Xi Jinping look strong. If anything, it makes Xi Jinping look vulnerable. Remember, Chen Xi's appointment itself broke party convention. Xi Jinping personally made an exception for him to make the head of the Central Party School. So why create that exception only to publicly reverse it later? So personally, I find the second explanation more consistent with what we are seeing, because Chen's removal doesn't look like a routine personnel adjustment. It looks more like a political message, a form of retaliation, a warning directed not only at Chen Xi, but also at Xi Jinping himself. The real question is, if someone like Chen Xi can fall, how many truly untouchable political assets does Xi Jinping still have left? And if Xi Jinping can no longer trust the college roommate who stood beside him for almost 15 years, what does that tell us about the state of trust inside Xi Jinping's inner circle? So the real story is that cracks are appearing within the leader's own power structure.