China’s Weapon is Tofu: Exposing PLA's Arsenal as the World's Greatest Bluff | TDTV

China's most advanced amphibious warship, the Type 071 Dock Transport Vessel Luzon, recently found itself engulfed in smoke as a massive fire erupted on board. Measuring over 200 meters in length, the Luzon is equipped with ample resources and space to manage accidental fires. This incident occurred shortly after China's leader, Xi Jinping, returned from a trip to the United States, where he issued instructions to the People's Liberation Army to shift their focus away from war rhetoric and towards domestic priorities. This shift in tone likely left hawkish factions within the PLA military leadership feeling frustrated. According to information from Baidu, the presence of smoke on the ship serves as a defensive tactic. Essentially, the smoke conceals the vessel's heat signature, making it more challenging for thermal missiles to target it while also obstructing the opponent's field of vision. In essence, the Chinese are employing smoke tactics. However, it is worth noting that this does not appear to be effective smoke coverage. The vessel remains clearly visible, and the smoke rises upwards rather than providing proper concealment. Additionally, given the maritime environment, white smoke would be more suitable as black smoke does not blend well with the surrounding blue waters. To be effective, the smoke should not only obscure the vessel but also a significant portion of its surroundings to truly confuse and hinder the enemy's view. Failing to achieve this may have the opposite effect. In all honesty, if this is indeed a warship on fire, it appears to be more of a symbolic display than a genuine crisis, casting doubts on the credibility of the Chinese authorities' statements. This child-level propaganda appears to be a deliberate signal of weakness to both America and Taiwan. It follows previous suspicious incidents involving the loss of PLA troops due to a catastrophic malfunction in the 093 submarine's oxygen systems, resulting in the poisoning of the entire crew. These incidents collectively suggest that China's naval capabilities are more about bluster than actual combat readiness. Moreover, there are concerns about the overall quality of the Chinese military arsenal. Despite the apparent incompetence of the PLA, U.S. military officials maintain a vigilant stance regarding the threat posed by China. There is significant distrust of China within policy circles in Washington. While President Biden recently met with Xi, he continues to emphasize the profound differences between Chinese authoritarianism and democracy. The U.S. military has also recently showcased aggressive new wartime capabilities designed to counter China. These include advanced hypersonic missiles, stealth bombers, drone swarm technologies, and artificial intelligence-enhanced systems. America's formidable conventional firepower continues to grow. In a realistic assessment, direct confrontation with the U.S. remains an unappealing prospect for Beijing. The loosened fire serves as a fitting metaphor for the PLA's strategic position, a lot of smoke and mirrors without genuine progress. PLA Hardliners Rebel Against Xi The recent fire aboard China's Advanced Amphibious Transport Dock, the Luzon, appears to be a manifestation of resistance from disgruntled hawks within the People's Liberation Army, as evidenced by their need to conceal it through deception. China's paramount leader, Xi Jinping, had recently returned from a significant trip to the United States, where both sides had attempted to de-escalate tensions. Following this visit, Xi directed the PLA to shift its stance away from warlike preparations and rhetoric, instead focusing on domestic military priorities. For the hardline elements within the PLA, who had been advocating confrontation and harboring ambitions of Taiwan's conquest, this abrupt change in direction was unacceptable. Having previously stoked nationalist fervor regarding the Taiwan issue, Xi's amicable demeanor in America indicated an unexpected moderation. And since by the loss of momentum, insider sources suggest that militant PLA personnel deliberately initiated the fire on the anchored Luzon transport vessel. Strategic analysts interpret this orchestrated incident as a deliberate message to both the United States and Taiwan, suggesting that China's naval capabilities are lacking despite substantial investments. This tactic follows a longstanding pattern of China downplaying its strengths in the hope of pressuring opponents into making concessions. With the Biden administration persisting in imposing sanctions and condemning Chinese authoritarianism after Xi's visit, Beijing aims to portray Xi as incapable of controlling his hawkish generals and intends to undermine Taiwanese confidence and potential U.S. support. The question remains whether the Western nations will fall for this ploy. Policymakers in the United States, spanning the political spectrum, maintain a profound skepticism regarding the Chinese regime and its military ambitions. Displays of weakness, even when accompanied by fiery incidents, are unlikely to significantly impact the U.S. deterrence measures already in progress in the Pacific region. However, as Xi secures an unprecedented third term in power, aligning the PLA with his new direction becomes a pressing challenge. The Luzon incident effectively illustrates the internal resistance he faces from hardliners as he seeks to reshape China's global posture. Their defiance will continue to pose a formidable obstacle to Xi's envisioned path forward. PLA simulation exposes crippling weaknesses and prospective Taiwan invasion. According to leaked information from a 2019 military exercise conducted by the People's Liberation Army, the prospect of successfully invading Taiwan would necessitate an immense deployment of manpower and resources, surpassing the expectations of most analysts. The war game simulation underscored the significant challenges the PLA would encounter when attempting a complex and large-scale amphibious assault, as well as maintaining operations against the well-prepared island. The exercise's calculations suggested that Chinese forces would require up to half a million ground troops and a minimum of 100,000 naval marines for the initial seaborne invasion. This would entail the commitment of five entire group armies, a substantial portion of the PLA's forces solely dedicated to overwhelming Taiwan's defenses. Even then, China would lack the specialized expertise and logistical capability compared to leading military powers when it comes to executing beach landings. However, the most alarming revelation was the vulnerability of China's exposed invasion fleet during the transit across the Taiwan Strait. Without securing air and sea dominance in advance, the simulation depicted transports, warships, and fighter aircraft falling victim to Taiwanese anti-ship missiles, aircraft, and other countermeasures. The result would be devastating, with tens of thousands of personnel and assets lost in the attempt to establish a foothold. Instead of showcasing Chinese military confidence in dealing with the renegade province, the war game exercise reinforced Taiwan's credible deterrence posture. Supported by advanced U.S. weaponry and integrated defense networks, the simulation indicated that Taiwan possesses a clear advantage in defending itself, even against a numerically superior aggressor. The potential losses that China could incur right from the outset could significantly undermine domestic political will. While China continues its assertive stance towards Taiwan, its military leadership must surely recognize the nightmarish casualties that an attempted invasion would entail. The PLA remains largely untested in modern warfare compared to leading military powers. The insights gained from the 2019 exercise should give significant pause to the notion that Taiwan is an easy or worthwhile target, regardless of the nationalist rhetoric espoused. China preps mass missile swarm attack capability against Taiwan. As the People's Liberation Army continues to enhance its combat readiness, one area that has received intense focus is the development of potent missile strike capabilities aimed at Taiwan's defenses. China boasts the world's largest ground-based missile arsenal, comprising over 1,000 dedicated short-range ballistic missiles capable of delivering precision strikes against Taiwanese air bases, radar installations, ports, and communication hubs. Increasingly, PLA rocket force bases have deployed mobile transport erector launchers, enabling missiles to evade counterfire by quickly dispersing. These robust, heavy-lift vehicles have the capability to relocate and conceal missiles across China's expansive territory. Launchers only need to briefly expose themselves to unleashed salvos before relocating. Moreover, newer units are versatile enough to operate from China's island chains as well. Doctrine dictates the use of short-range missiles and large coordinated swarms, timed closely together to overwhelm Taiwan's surface-to-air missile defenses. The ultimate objective is to disrupt and, ideally, incapacitate Taiwan's air force capabilities, making it difficult to intercept subsequent invasion forces. China also plans to employ the 1,500-kilometer-range DF-21 medium-range ballistic missile to target locations across the island and its surrounding waters. For more distant targets, such as Guam or even areas where U.S. forces are stationed, like Australia, China possesses the 3,000-kilometer DF-26 missile, often referred to as the Guam Killer in state media. Complementing the PLA's formidable rocket capabilities are long-range rocket artillery battalions integrated into ground units. These units could sustain continuous saturation bombardments of Taiwanese ports, critical infrastructure, and any identified defensive strongholds. In aggregate, China appears to be well prepared to unleash a barrage of missiles and rockets as the vanguard of an assault against Taiwan. Their strategy relies on the overwhelming volume of precision munitions to rapidly establish the surface dominance necessary for a potential amphibious invasion. However, the question of whether Taiwanese and American defenses can withstand such a relentless onslaught remains uncertain. U.S. high-tech weapons pose formidable challenge to PLA modernization. While China is diligently working to modernize its military capabilities, the threat of American weapons technologies surpassing them in the coming years looms large. The core U.S. capabilities strategically designed to deter China include advanced interceptor systems, stealth aircraft, submarines, and artificial intelligence. Sophisticated interception platforms like the ship-based Aegis system and the ground-based Iron Dome have proven to be highly effective defenses. They have successfully intercepted ballistic missiles and thwarted saturated attacks, making it challenging for China to breach these defensive networks around Taiwan and U.S. bases in the Pacific. In terms of offensive capabilities, American missiles have demonstrated their prowess, notably in countering Russia's formidable S-400 system in Ukraine. China's comparable systems would likely face similar difficulties. The U.S. is continuously expanding its arsenal of mobile Hamas rocket artillery to complicate Chinese targeting efforts. Hardened U.S. bases across the Pacific house long-range hypervelocity missiles capable of rapidly striking mainland China in the event of hostilities. The development of future hypersonic weapons will further compound these challenges. American stealth fighters and bombers also operate in close proximity to China, supported by unmanned aerial systems. Most notably, the development of autonomous drone swarms holds the promise of a revolution in warfare capabilities for the U.S. Systems with low observability combined with artificial intelligence in the battlefield cloud will exponentially enhance force projection and situational awareness. Manned and unmanned teaming will enable unprecedented air combat capabilities. U.S. nuclear-powered submarines armed with autonomous strike vehicles add another layer to this potent mix of military technology that is maturing rapidly. With such advanced capabilities on the horizon, China's traditional strengths in missiles, numerical superiority, and layered defense systems are at risk of being overshadowed by American technological superiority. Chinese strategists are already expressing deep concerns about falling behind their U.S. counterparts in terms of capabilities. Unless China achieves its own breakthroughs, their ability to project power abroad could face indefinite limitations. At present, U.S. deterrence appears to be on the rise. U.S. Well-Positioned for Devastating Mainland Strike and Conflict According to U.S. defense analysis, American forces maintain a high level of readiness to conduct expanded operations targeting mainland China and potential wartime scenarios. These assessments suggest that approximately 200 stealthy, long-range bombers would be necessary to deliver devastating blows to China's strategic centers, which are dispersed across its vast territory. This substantial bomber fleet is deemed necessary due to the sheer number of military, transportation, and economic facilities that are crucial for China's war-making capabilities. In addition to neutralizing air defenses, runways, and missile sites, the U.S. would seek to incapacitate China's ability to wage war by targeting critical infrastructure such as power grids, bridges, shipyards, and railways. Achieving such monumental disruption quickly would require a massive wave of assaults. Upcoming capabilities, including the B-21 Raider stealth bomber with optional crewing, are expected to be part of a fleet comprising hundreds of platforms. These would need to be complemented by short-range tactical aircraft operating from nearby bases and aircraft carriers. In fact, following the initial bombardment, analysts envision carrier groups capable of maintaining a closer presence along China's coastlines. This proximity would enable continuous flight operations over China, delivering ordnance to key targets around the clock. Such relentless aerial pressure would further strain the People's Liberation Army's defenses. More critically, the ability to stage carriers closer to the theater could make direct support for Taiwanese counterparts feasible. War games already demonstrate that China faces significant challenges in attempting a Taiwan invasion without gaining air and sea control. Presently, China lacks the means to forcibly reunify Taiwan, as its forces would risk being decimated upon landing on Taiwan's shores under U.S. air cover. However, simulations reveal China's vulnerability as well. American suppression efforts would severely impede their aspirations for power projection. Given the disparities in technological capabilities and operational readiness vis-a-vis the U.S., China remains decades away from achieving a leading power status, regardless of propaganda efforts. PLA grapples with fighting a lost war against U.S. Amid the ongoing display of military posturing towards Taiwan and state media, a deeper sense of introspection and frustration is emerging among senior People's Liberation Army officers. In confidential discussions and internal documents, the PLA leadership is grappling with the sobering realization that, despite decades of expensive modernization efforts, China still lacks the military capability to defeat the United States decisively. Repetitive invasion exercises aimed at Taiwan have exposed significant operational weaknesses within the PLA's capacity to execute intricate joint operations, even though they appear formidable on paper in terms of manpower. The absence of guaranteed air and sea supremacy foretells significant casualties in any attempt to cross the perilous Taiwan Strait, which could erode domestic political support for continuing the conflict. Furthermore, even if Taiwan were to fall under Chinese control, the United States possesses the conventional firepower required to severely cripple China's project power. Assessments suggest that the U.S. could unleash widespread devastation on mainland targets using approximately 200 long-range stealth bombers while simultaneously neutralizing PLA air defenses. American aircraft carriers and tactical aircraft operating in closer proximity to China following the initial strikes would further jeopardize any invading forces. Confronted with these glaring gaps in warfighting capabilities, PLA leadership is increasingly aware of their technological obsolescence in comparison to the cutting-edge military technology entering service in the United States. The integration of unmanned systems, artificial intelligence, and machine learning into weapons platforms promises to widen this technological disparity in the years to come. China's reliance on missiles, incremental improvements, and mass mobilization tactics appears inadequate in Privately, PLA officers express frustration over the exorbitant costs invested in ships and aircraft that continue to lag behind their rivals. They criticize past corrupt procurement decisions that prioritize the enrichment of military-affiliated companies over enhancing combat readiness. Nevertheless, the prospect of challenging American dominance in the Pacific directly is widely recognized as a virtually insurmountable task, even though it is disconcerting to acknowledge.