Buying Homes In Hawaii In 2025

What are you projecting for real estate trends for 2025? What do you see happening as compared to the amount of business we did this last year, the amount of buyers, just what the market's going to look like. What are your 2025 predictions? It's a loaded question. I know. Literally, it's November. We still got another month and a half to go. Where do I see the market? I think we're going to need to subdivide the market here. Yeah, go for it. Condos and townhomes and single family, two different things. Condos, definitely still insurance issues are a thing. I think there's still going to be a thing. I actually just had this conversation with a client just now on how there's opportunity in the condo market depending on which condo you're going in. Because as of right now, we're kind of seeing a cap on prices. We're kind of hitting a hard spot and we're kind of trending downward because of all these insurance issues, whether that be through price reductions, credits from the seller. I think condo buyers now, after vetting the right condo, can be more discerning on what they're buying and what kind of leverage they have for it. And I think that's still going to be the trend throughout this next year. We're still seeing assessments. We're still seeing HOA increases, a lack of insurance. So I think the condo market is still going to be suppressed. I think just buyers are going to be a little more discerning on that. But for like the 20% of buildings that are hammers. Like insurance wise? Yeah. Okay. Great opportunity for appreciation. How so? Because they're the only good building. So once I know, like I can fight for my value. The general public thinks condo bad. So when I know my condo is good, when I know my insurance is good, I'm bullish on my price. I'm bullish on my sales price. I'm not coming down just because all the other markets are trending down. All the other buildings are trending down. I know that my insurance is set. I know that I'm not going to have an assessment. I know that I'm going to do the normal three to five to maybe seven on the high end percent increase of HOA year over year. I'm going to wait because I feel like five months from now, more of the general public is going to be smart and more educated on that and realize like, oh my God, that's the condo I need to buy into. That's the market I need to get into. So the demand for good condos is just going to increase the price? Because the condo, I mean, people who are in the condo market and I'm not like Ko'olino where it's like 1.3 and I could buy a single family house. I'm talking like 400 grand, 500 grand. The buyer that is a condo buyer, because that is their price point, they're not going to not be a buyer anymore just because the condo market sucks. Like they're not going to be single family just because the condo market sucks. Yeah. And when the buildings start to come out or the townhouses start to come out and more agents are educated on this, therefore more buyers are educated on this, those sellers are going to make up. Yeah. Okay. I can see that. Maybe. Not a lot of people know the nuance in the insurance issues right now. I've just done vetting for my own self and I found one, one that works really well. So I will be pursuing that for myself. We just got a market update from Pacific Rim today. So Jerome Powell's language during his interview was easing market concerns. So another screenshot that Pacific Rim dropped in was the 10 year treasury rate. To my understanding, this rate tracks and is correlated with interest rates. And we did have an improvement in conventional VA rates today. We went from 6.125 to a six flat. Good thing straight away. Is it going to happen? Because we had another rate drop right back in September where we had like a low and then right back up. Would I hope for rates to do that? Yes and no. One, I want rates to go down because it makes things more affordable because you're paying less interest on the low. You as a buyer currently. You as a buyer. Yeah. Me as a buyer, but I want to get in the four rates cut too much because as rates trend downward, the amount of buyers that flock the market increase a lot. Let's talk about that really quickly for trends for our buyers and waiting for rate drops. This is exactly like Aiden is an active buyer right now himself. This is exactly something you need to pay attention to. Why are you waiting for rates to drop? Guess who else is waiting for rates to drop? 90% of the buyers and they're going to all come back at the same time. So once again, if you can't afford it and it makes sense and the monthly budget is good, buy it now because if you're waiting for the rates to drop, a lot of other people are. And then your price point that you're going to have to pay to enter the market is going to increase. Maybe your monthly is a little bit smaller than it would have been, but is it really? If the price point of that condo goes up 50 grand, I don't think there it's going to happen right away. Like once the rate drops, the price of the asset increases. I think there's going to be a lull in between where we have rates dropping if they do. And then when rates drop the price of the asset, maybe trailing a few months behind, we'll start to increase. So there is like a timing window. But as someone who's looking right now, I hope rates kind of stay where they are so that I can get in before the huge push happens. So I as a buyer can be more discerning on what I want to buy and have more leverage on the seller when I go and purchase that property. So for 2025, we see more buyers coming to market. I think more buyers coming to market. What about single family home? How do you think those are going to perform as compared to how they've been doing the last couple of years? I don't think we're going to see like a COVID drop. Any bit of interest rate drop is going to drive even more buyers to the market. And I think we could be in a very scary spot, scary busy, which is good busy, more busy than even last year in terms of single family, if we start to see just ever so slightly some rate drops. Rate drops coupled with a sustainably weak condo market equals more single family buyers. That's a scary thing. Okay, well, it depends on where that single family is, right? Yeah. Because we have new developments, we have Coal Ridge, we have Ka'ulu, we have Ho'opili. Those markets I don't think are going to appreciate at the same rate as where another market would be, maybe say Hawai'i Kai, Mililani, maybe even a Pearl City single family, because there's more supply flooding the market in Ho'opili. I think Ho'opilis are still going to appreciate, but you're competing with the builder at that point, right? Say your model, like for example, Noho Papa and Ikena, right? They're kind of the same model. Noho Papa is the one being newly built. Ikenas are the ones that are built. They're roughly the same. They have some tweaks to them, but roughly the same footprint layout. Some of them have ADUs, huge. I think you just can't maximize your Ikena sales price because you're competing with Noho Papa. Buying into those new developments is more of a longer term hold. Obviously you should hold real estate for as long as possible. Try to accumulate pieces on the board rather than sell them off. But I think appreciation rates in markets that don't have new construction going on are going to appreciate at a higher price point than what new development markets are going to appreciate at. Now I know we always say like you're almost like guaranteed appreciation, right? Like if you buy new construction because the next batch is going to cost more. The next batch is going to tick up with market. We've had kind of a slower moving market than we had say in like 2021. So when we go from like lottery to first come first serve for new home construction, that's when we kind of can see that the market is slower because if it were fast like it were in 2021, it would all be via lottery and we'd all be holding our breath and crossing our fingers to get one. Now it's just like sometimes there's a line, sometimes there's not. You can pretty much if you qualify for and want one, there may be a home for you. In a development where there's a ton to come up, for example, maybe less appreciation there than like a core ridge where the development is a little bit smaller, a little bit smaller, a little bit less homes come up at a time. But then obviously appreciation and maybe a single family home in Mililani, which is an insulated market where people want to be maybe even more so there. You know, Derek has gotten beaten. I don't know if he wants me to tell you this, but Derek has been beaten out a few times on some single families in Mililani. It's not like they're brand spanking new. Everything's all updated. Like we're looking at one, we're like looking and we see upstairs and we're like, Hey, is that central AC? Like, is there a water spot on the ceiling? Like it's not brand new stuff. Just that market in general is just, it's hard to break into. So difficult markets are going to become more difficult. I feel like over this coming year and maybe not right away, but I feel like now is a good time to start having those serious conversations with your real estate professionals, with your contacts, with your favorite core team Hawaii agent, whichever one that may be somebody from core team Hawaii would be happy to help. But now is a really good time to get serious about those conversations because I feel like 2025 will be a year of post election. Everyone is no longer holding their breath and waiting to see what happens. People are becoming more decisive, more actionable, and that means more people coming to market. And if you're a buyer, that means more competition. So get serious now so that you know what you can afford and get ahead of that competition. And then even if you're a seller, get serious about that now to place yourself in the best position, the best timing with the best marketing and the best team behind you to maximize on that coming trend. I don't know. Who knows? I can't be, I don't have a crystal ball. I can't tell you for sure, but that's what I think is going to happen. I think we're going to see a busier year. 2025 is going to be a busier year for us than 2024 was for sure. I think we're going to have more clients just really ready to get off the bench. One more thing I have to add. I was doom scrolling last night. A lot of political stuff in my feed, who and that. Everyone's doing a good doom scroll. Everyone's doing it right now. It's okay. It's all right. I came across one, this person, he showed a graph of home sales over the past eight elections. And the year after the election happened, the amount of home sales increased. I don't know if that was a credible source or not. I don't know if it's a credible source, but come to the pro shop. Somebody getting scolding, getting licking. Anyway, while we have time, before he gets onto the mic again, we've got a questionnaire for you in the description below. Let us know what your questions are. Somebody, Aiden, myself, Kenny, Derek, somebody from Core Team Hawaii is going to get on and answer these questions so that we can address kind of your biggest questions. Your questions that are top of mind as it pertains to real estate, as it pertains to Hawaii, as it pertains to the market here, moving here, staying here, all of that stuff. We want to know how we can help you. What are your plans for 2025? How are you going to be in the best position for your purchase or getting yourself to purchase in the future? If you guys are ready to jump into the market, we are ready to help you.