Unveiling The Shocking Increase In Resale Home Transactions: Here's Why!

Hey folks, Dan Frazier here with your closing bell for December 30th, 2024. Some mortgage rates didn't go far as far down as I thought they'd go down, but we're on the brink of 6%. And I think we're going to maybe be there in the next week or so. So without further ado, let's get over to see where rates are. But there is one little thing here that I want to show you guys. Here's where rates have been over the last two years. And you might want to see something in here where here's where we are now. Okay. We're at 7% or right about there. You know, depends on which day you click over here. If you go all the way back here a year ago, we were 8% right there. And then two years ago, where, where we were higher than where we are today. So I think people finally realized that rates aren't going to get back down to the three for 4% range, unless we have a catastrophic worldwide event, like we had last time, and also the housing market, isn't going to crash nationally. A lot of people were kept saying, you know, it's going to be worse than 2008 on home prices. Well, the, the transactions are worse or even worse than 2008, but home prices are still okay, and that's going to be part of my forecast is coming out this week. So next step I want to take is going over here. They're going to talk about the housing market, 2025, and please take in a perspective where rates, they basically have been steady over the last two years. Now they're, they're bouncing around depending on when, you know, what month you buy or what day you lock in your rate. That's why you need us. Uh, but it, it does show you how people are starting to get to the point where it's like, okay, I think this is just going to be the new norm. So let's go over to wall street and get their take on it. With a look at the housing trade, the home construction ETF, the ITV, it is tracking for its worst month since 2020. Our Diana joins us now with a look at what's ahead for that space in 2025. Diana. Well, Frank, we're going to start 2025 on a mixed footing in the housing market. Let's start with mortgage rates. After a pretty volatile year, we're back at the highs with the 30 year fixed, well over 7%. Expectations last year were that rates now would be in the low sixes heading toward a five handle. That is no longer the prediction. As a result, the home construction ETF, ITV is down close to 17% month to date on pace for its worst month since March, 2020, which of course was the very start of the pandemic. Now builders have been buying down mortgage rates, but it's really hitting their market margins. One outliner though, Toll Brothers, the luxury home builder, it's down for the month, but still way up year to date. It's high end buyers are of course, less dependent on mortgage rates. All that said on the existing home side, we just got the read on pending home sales in November up 2.2% month to month and up 6.9% from November of last year. That's the fourth straight month of gains. Now the count is based on signed contracts with people out shopping in November when the average rate on the 30 year fixed spent much of the month over 7% before coming down in the last week of the month. NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yoon said in the release that consumers appeared to have recalibrated expectations regarding mortgage rates and are taking advantage of more available inventory. The one problem though, Frank, is that home prices are still gaining. So that's the problem. People have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for housing market to pull back. Um, and also interest rates. I was on the bandwagon. I thought interest rates would be, you know, five and a half, 6%, maybe in the low or high mid sixes, never thought they would continue to stay at 7%. So that's my bad. And I'll be out, like I said, this, uh, later this week with my housing prediction and my interest rate predictions. So today though, we had a nice little rally in the market. You can see right through here, us treasuries. I'm going to give you the highlight right through here is treasuries. Uh, dip is final trading week of 2024 kicks off, but there's one analyst in here saying that he's expecting only one, one rate cut in 2025. And I'm not on that projection just yet, right here. Here's the biggest culprit of the whole mix. You have government just keeps spending way too much money. And I was a proponent of saying, Hey, until they really curtail this, you're not going to see rates coming down because the 10 year treasury is going to have to keep up with funding all this national debt and nobody's going to want to buy mortgage bonds because why not buy a national, you know, the government debt that has no, no chance of default. So as long as the debt keeps remaining this high, and we have to keep funding the government because of this, you're going to see rates staying higher or longer. So that's what we're seeing right through here. But today with the market set is the bonds are doing pretty darn well. They're up 35 ticks for the day. So I don't think there's any more reprieve coming in for interest rates coming down anymore today, but we're all going to, we're going to continue to watch the CME FedWatch tool. This is telling us based on the, the CME FedWatch tool, they're only expecting two more rate cuts in 2024. And I'd be on that bandwagon. And again, I'm going to tease you a little bit back about this. I'll give you my projections by the end of the week on where I think rates are going to go in 2025. So that's my report so far today, folks. So coming up tomorrow, I'm going to give you a shortened version in the morning because the market's closed early. And then that's when you're going to start seeing me coming out with some of my videos. I'm going to come out with a video on real estate projections in 2025, what I expect in rates in 2025. And then also I'm working on a real estate round table. So if you're a realtor out there and you have exposure on YouTube and you want to get a little more exposure and collaborate, we would love, we'd love to hear from you. So reach out to me. I'll give you all my information right now. So my name is Dan Frio. What do I do for a living? I do mortgages folks. I don't do videos. I do videos just as my way to get out to you guys to say, Hey, here I am. And to provide you educational information. So once you learn how to do all this, hopefully then you use my services to help you navigate that home purchase. So if you're looking to buy that first house, maybe first investment property, here's my theme. I can provide you with one application and one credit pool. Now we're going to shop your loan to over, there's going to be over 40 different lenders. I just had a young man apply today and he's like, Hey Dan, you know, I know you work at ServBank, but how, how competitive are your rates? And I'm like, well, maybe you didn't hear a lot of the other stuff that I provide. I'm also, I work at ServBank. ServBank is the number 10 largest servicer in the whole country. We're also a huge mortgage brokerage. So I'm licensed in all 50 States as well as Puerto Rico. And we're set up with over 40 different companies. So think of it. One application, one credit pool, and we're going to shop your loan to over 40 different companies. So that's how you, how you find me. Go to the rateupdate.com. You can get pretty simple. Just click the apply now button and you're on your way. Here's what I expect you to do. Here's what I would do. Basically say it this way. I want to talk to the person I'm going to work with. Let's say I had, I was looking to buy a three or $400,000 home. Let's look at it in another way. Let's say I'm investing three to $400,000. I'm not just going to watch a YouTube video and say, Oh, this guy does, you know, investments and click him and send him all my money. No, no, no, no, no. We want to vet. You should be vetting me. And I also wanted to learn your story. So how do we do that? Click the schedule a one-on-one consultation right through here or call us. You can scroll down to the bottom of the website and all that information is right through there. Our 800 number, as well as my email. That's right there. So if you want to reach out to me personally, just email me here, ask me a question, give me your phone number. I'll be more than happy to call you back. If you want to call in, you're going to talk to me, David or Alan. You can call us at our 800 number 844-775-LOAN. That's 844-775-5626. Thanks for watching guys. God bless. Have a fantastic evening. See you back here tomorrow to start this mess again. Take care. Bye-bye.