The 2024 US Election: What Does it Mean for Canadian Agriculture? | Shaun Haney & Jim Wiesemeyer |

good morning my name is Tyler mccan and I'm the managing director of the Canadian Agra food policy Institute before we begin our discussion today I want to acknowledge that I am participating in this webinar from Alberta on traditional treaty 7 territory across Canada we acknowledge the relationships with first nations may te inate people and recognize the importance of relationships and Partnerships to moving forward whether it be Canada in the United States or Canada and its indigenous peoples the best way to make progress is together and as an organization we recognize that there are many steps on the road to reconciliation and it's a journey that we must do together the Canadian Agri food policy Institute is pleased to partner with real agriculture for today's webinar today's topic is a critically important one as the decisions made across the US have the potential to Ripple across Canadian agriculture or to become a wave that washes over all of us in fact for the first time we've had to cap today's webinar registrations because we reached capacity for those who are here I'm glad we're glad that you registered early the interest in this webinar highlights the broad understanding of how important this relationship is and the desire to understand what it might mean for the future today we aim to understand the policy political and practical imp implications of a changing US policy but it is important to highlight that we're still very early in the in the early days almost two months before President Trump will be inaugurated and much of what we will discuss today is perception hypothesis and a little speculation however the speed at which president Trump has moved since the election announcing his new cabinet and that he will impose 25% tariffs on Canada on day one highlight the need to act now our hope is that today's webinar will help your understanding of the evolving Dynamics what it might mean for Canada and what Canada and Canadian agriculture might be able to do about it please feel free to use the Q&A function to ask questions during the webinar today we hope to get to as many questions as possible I will be back later to host a panel discussion but I'd like to now hand it over to Sean Haney founder of real agriculture.com and host of reag radio to kick off the webinar Sean over to you hey thanks a lot Tyler really do appreciate Cappy's partnership on this webinar and uh this is something we've talked about doing for for quite some time and the response of you know over 500 people saying hey I am interested in this topic is is fantastic um this is a very important topic to Canadians of course not just in agriculture but across the entire uh economy obviously being adjacent to the largest economy in the world it brings with it a lot of opportunity for trade and Canada is an exporting nation has benefited extremely from NAFTA as well as the current kosma agreement but what happens going forward and to get the US perspective here before we dive into the Canadian panel I brought in a good friend of mine somebody that I've had the pleasure of working every Friday with on AGR talk which is really the flagship of farm radio in the United States over 120 syndicates across the Midwest and into the Northern Plains as well as also a show on Rural radio 147 the exact same station that real like radio is on bringing in my good friend DC policy analyst for profarmer Mr Jim whism Jim uh it is great to have you today here on the webinar thanks for joining us always good to be with you Sean and that's why we have Shawn on hopefully every Friday on AGR talk he brings the Canadian perspective to the US market and as you all know we need that Jim okay before we get into the5 % tariff I want your reaction to the cabinet selections what what do you now we've already had one situation where one person that was put forward has removed themselves Matt gates for attorney general but overall what's the reaction to the cabinet selections allies uh uh if you're a Democrat you call him loyalist uh cabinet people who probably won't write books about President Trump and he's he learned a lot during his first four years of his uh of the his first Administration that I kind of measured in dog years it felt like 28 years and and this will be uh not different they are a cohesive hole it's it's impressive especially as we get into the trade environment when you look at the Commerce secret the uh you know treasury secretary Commerce Secretary National Economic Council a lot of your listeners may not realize that when a republican Administration comes in the National Economic Council director in this case uh uh Kevin hasset is very important because he takes on an inter agency role and of course we have the USDA secretary Brooke Rollins who very close and has a lot of clout uh uh with Trump she almost was his white house chief of staff and from a regulatory basis and that's going to be important for Canada because we're going to have reduced regulations for the US Farm sector it'll make us even more competitive and that's uh Russ V yeah I I heard uh from John Newton of terrain I he talked about 8 to one the ratio that they're going they have to pull out they have to pull off eight regulations before adding one that's a substantial ratio remember two to one is one that is commonly used so quite aggressive on that because of the loyalist Factor one of the things that I'm wondering and I'm a little bit concerned about is you think about in Trump 1.0 we had situations where USDA and EPA did not get you know they were on different sides of the fence on an issue and it took USDA secretary Sunny Purdue to come in the White House and say whoa whoa whoa whoa this impacts Farmers negatively if we've got a bunch of loyalists they're carrying the message out they're not necessarily working as that conduit from Farm country to the White House is is that a concern for some of the farm Lobby it it could be uh we really need to see in the case of US Department of Agriculture who the deputy secretary is going to be and the under secretaries because uh Brook Rollins uh although she doesn't have dirt under her fingernails she's not a farmer Farmer uh she knows a lot about policy but really 15,000 feet area I'm going to be very important to see who's going to be deputy secretary the glue that holds USDA together and the under secretary so I would watch those and we're going to see that'll tell us a lot what direction they want to take USDA at so we're we're a little bit less than two months away from inauguration January 20th is the is the day right yes and this week Big Time shot across the bow we we heard you 25% tariffs on all goods and all in capital letters i i I'll dispute I don't think it's going to be all but all Goods coming into the US from Canada and from Mexico why now and why this strategy at this time it's classic not only Trump 101 but leidheiser farmer us trade rep Bob Li iser who's not yet in the Trump 2.0 interestingly so last night they they uh announced uh Jameson Greer 44 years old only uh as the US trade rep but very close to ligh Heiser ligh Heiser is working behind the scenes so this begin from day one is pure ligh Heiser talking with Trump uh in other words coer leverage leverage leverage and that's what we're seeing with some of these now lumping Canada and Mexico together um Mexico's problems with the US are not Canada's problems with the US and the two leverage points that are being used here one fentanyl coming into the into the US from both Canada and Mexico and illegal immigrants we know in the election immigration is a big big issue often referred to you know as a southern border issue but the numbers like Jim okay so for example last year 10,000 illegals cross from Canada to the United States 10,000 that's less than a day at times that are crossing from Mexico to the US 2.4 million did so last year and if you look at the drug number on fentanyl it's the same kind of ratio it's it's like insignificant from a Canadian perspective what's the US's strategy here why treat Canada like Mexico well they they want to group it because you're you even though you're a not a significant part of that uh in their eyes Canada is a portion of the problem and that's why I think it's while it won't be easy for you to get a framework agreement with Trump I think you will and uh so I just think this is a clear signal and in all my years I've been covering the business of a in the US for over 50 years you know all great men are dead and I'm not well myself is what I say in my speeches but I've seen Canada uh rise to the occasion in trade policy Arena frankly I think you have better trade officials than my country does for whatever reason so I would say you've got the makings and I know this is the talk behind the scenes of a framework agreement Trump is big on framework where you get a timeline of so many months to execute what you promised to do and frankly I think candada will be able to do that so so you think on like this on say these two Cho if if Canada shows some work to improve yes and show some results and like some of that could be based on what we did or just maybe timing of the year uh if we do those things do you think there's the opportunity for for Trump to back off of Canada and and make that separation or are we just going to be on this four-year treadmill of like yeah you did that but now I want you to focus on this no and have Canada come out of the shoot with that so that can so he can apply more pressure on Mexico because he's got the agreement with Canada that's that's what I'm hearing on that okay and and the the reason why fentol it's a national security reason he he wants to invoke from uh from authority to do some of these things not just our border security but from a national security under under the Fentanyl and so I think that's important and that's why I think Canada got tied into this I think you know the timing of this this week kind of cut a lot of people off guard we like I'm not surprised on the action it's it's hey it's it's the Playbook you read you know you and I have talked Jim a lot about art of the deal Trump's book about how you do business this is right from the book yes no surprises but this week I think it caught people a little bit off off off guard what's been the reaction from us Farm groups to this they're really they're not they're already in high anxiety over the flip flop under the USDA secretary post so it's like they're with baited breath they they know what Trump did during the first four years although most agriculture really liked I mean he had his best uh uh you the number I think 70% of the rural vote voted for Trump so he they're on their s on his side however there's high anxiety uh again I give a lot of speeches and my speech on Trump 2.0 is the certainty of uncertainty I mean so get get ready I measured the first four years in dog years like I said so this is going to be the same what agriculture wants is competitiveness and so you got to look at this as a whole trade policy tariffs are now being viewed as an advantage not a disadvantage regulations lowering the cost for us producers and with hasset at the National Economic Council getting into the in the tax cuts extend ing them uh that'll allow more investment coming in to the United States you put all that together and uh most production agriculture in the US likes likes that Triad leading up to the election and even post elction um you know I use JD Vance vice vice president um JD Vance incoming um if you listen to some of his speeches being from Ohio or senator from Ohio he he talked a lot about integrated Supply chains but very negatively and a lot of times this is a reference to China okay but we have a lot of integrated Supply chains between Canada and the US in the in in in 2018 when the first NAFTA renegotiation was going on us groups and Canadian groups talked a lot about integrated Supply chains is that kind of a cuss word right now in DC should we be using different verbage as we try to talk about the benefits of the Canada US trade relationship could be uh but really again the focus is on Mexico China China Investments and where I have seen Trudeau I think smartly approach a a review of Chinese Investments and things like that that's to me from a US perspective that is the route to go because they are going to focus on any potential end rounds that China is trying to do in their investments in in uh uh uh in Mexico so again I'm not not saying Canada is going to be scot-free in in some of this stuff but I think you have the makings to be very deliberate in how you come up with a working relationship more than most people think with Trump 2.0 yeah Canada supported now it's the Biden Administration but Canada supported the US and the tariffs on Chinese EVS yes got that you know got in line on on that um we're we're dealing with maybe some potential issues on export of Canadian canola due to that due to that decision and accommodating the uh the the Americans um H how does Canada separate itself from China and Mexico because that's where that's where the real negativity on trade is so what are some of the things that we can do uh defense spending maybe one of them get it up to 2% like Trump's been pushing for on NATO NATO absolutely that'll that'll get him to comment too is the Border issues I think you can take action that will show uh your um uh area as as far as controlling in that regard and uh three uh uh you know focusing on investigating China their their Investments not only in your country but uh uh in Mexico and I think that's already going going on but from a from a policy perspective I do feel for Canadian producers in this regard our energy policy are is clearly incentivizing the production of us biofuels and the processing therein and it it it's almost like when China switched from buying us uh uh uh soybean oil in the early days in the late 70s early 80s to figuring out it's a jobs program so they started importing Us and other countries soy beans because they built up their processing facility Canada may be going through the beginning days of this where you're going to export a lot more canola oil into the US to be processed for 45z program or vile fuels tax incentive programs that's just an initial indication yeah and there's a lot of coverage of the I've been telling people don't be distracted by Dairy Dair Dairy is a big issue uh and it's going to be a FAL one I would just imagine in the next four years for for sure but there's other things uh biofuels internet digital taxes things like that where Canada's going to probably have to do some some some movement on it um I I my my the the challenge for Canada is in some ways Jim is that we're we're looking for points of Leverage and and we're sort of like we're sort of blindfolded looking for levers it it just feels the the US side of the equation we rely on it from an economic perspective you can understand the sort of how some people have jumped just kind of a defeatist mindset almost yeah they shouldn't uh uh again uh I it's not going to be easier but I think it's going to be easier than most people think Canada's perspective not Mexico uh as far as dairy yeah if you did get into a push for a us can a return to a US Canada Free Trade Agreement I don't think it will surprise you that the dairy sector in the United States will come out very big F Focus to to getting out your uh Supply Management program you should be well aware of that uh uh so uh that that that would be one easy recommendation that the US would would probably wanted to negotiate on but in the past you've been quite successful in keeping it yeah what one of the things that I have said on real like radio numerous times is you know I Canada should probably start with the trq allocation there's a big fight about that you the last Market access that was given up there was an agreement on it in the in the kozma agreement and the F actually the first dispute resolution panel that was launched was actually about Dairy and there was four points of ruling uh both sides claimed Victory yes and we still disagree we agree to disagree um you we I remember former secretary Purdue saying he Canada you can keep your supply management but we want Market access do do you think do you have any idea the significance of how much more Market access potentially the us could be looking for not that much more if you understand Trump and I know you do he likes he likes wins and if if Canada fulfilled their trq promise Trump would go out probably in usdr we won and that's Trump that's Trump he he just give him a win give him cover give him cover if you will and I think it it would go along ways and now how much more Market access again that gets into uh what what Trump and his people might want to you know might want in in in in uh in further negotiations one of the things that we're looking at a lot is the devaluation of the Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar is there not concern in farm country about the the the appreciation of the US dollar and and the impacts that could have on exports should be uh usually you have a lag of at least six months for any significant impact but rag exports are already down what they USDA announced yesterday uh in in the you know fiscal year 2025 or a trade deficit of $ 45.5 billion now that's primarily Horticultural products fruits and vegetables and uh the impact of the dollar I think you're you're seeing it but yeah this this this is a big thing there but uh uh I think trade the the numbers are going to Galvanize the USR and the National Economic Council and USDA to come up with some some initiatives new trade agreements you mentioned the United Kingdom or something you know you know one we talked earlier in the waning days of trump 1.0 they were really working on a US UK trade agreement so I think that they'll continue that now I'd have to look into where that would be relative to us Dairy going into Canada but I would be who Canada to try to get an agreement with the United Kingdom because one's coming from the United States now yeah so you and and you think that a bilateral if Canada was to think about doing a bilateral with the United States that that might be the the appropriate path here because of how poor the situation is with Mexico it could well be as a as a hedge if you will but there that's loaded with potential dynamites as well as they try to get extractions of what uh from you know what from Canada that will will'll need but and even in the case ryers had a story yesterday on the 25% tariffs that it would include uh Canadian Oil Well that raised a lot of eyebrows here but the the Trump spin was that look the Biden Administration taxed US Energy I'm going to tax other people's energy yeah so see see the spin that they put on that I clearly think that that issue they're not going to put that 25% uh tax on oil because Trump number he knows and his whole campaign was what get energy prices down 50% from what they were you don't do that by putting a 25% tax on Canadian Oil well what about what about Canadian podes 87% of potash that is used in the United States is it comes from Canada 25% Riff on Canadian potash that they you're just taxing the farmer yeah that's part of the uh us Farmers holding their breath that they we have two months to get a framework agreement and I think we'll get one last question Jim one of the differences here in 2.0 versus 1.0 is more organized hitting the ground running one of the other differences though is the talk about legislating some of this these tariff implementations so it becomes much more difficult for future presidents to just repeal they would need congress's support how real is that it's very real and you there's there's kind of linkages here the interesting part is that farm State lawmakers want that because you can use that's Revenue okay to get help get some offsets for the tax cuts coming but they want to also put in uh reference prices increases in this budget reconciliation bill that will come out by the probably the summer of 2025 that gets scored into the new f Farm Bill budget Baseline I don't want to get too wonky on you but it will make it easier not easy to get a farm bill to give us Farmers more higher reference prices and more crop insurance incentives but you hit the nail on the head the uh uh the by putting this into the budget reconciliation the tariffs that codifies it so if any future Congress wants to pull that out they have to find offsets for revenues because it's a revenue generator from a budget perspective and so it's it's very important and I think that's on their top 10 list of things to do that they want from Congress to codify these tariffs in a budget reconciliation bill that only needs 50 Senate votes by the way it it cannot be filibustered and it's coming it's a done deal as far as I'm concern