羅家聰：香港資產價格會和中國一體化嗎？香港小生意人可點打救自己？黃金石油美金齊強勢？戰爭風險加劇？投資家進入大陸係真？ #Lucy連線

Will Hong Kong's assets be unified with China? It has already been unified. The people listed in Hong Kong are not from mainland China. It has already been unified. How can Hong Kong's small businessmen save themselves now? If you do small and medium-sized businesses, the biggest problem is that the cost here is very different from mainland China. Even if you cross the Shenzhen River, no matter the rent or salary, it is still a big discount. It is a big difference from Hong Kong. In the past, there was a river between the two sides. Now there are no two sides. In fact, things are starting to get mixed up. The process of getting mixed up is fun when the cheaper side comes up. It is painful when the more expensive side comes down. Now Hong Kong is experiencing this. You don't need the government to solve the problem. In fact, the process of bloodshed with Hong Kong is already a combination of economic factors. For example, if you look at Shenzhen, it is so cheap to look at the stock price. If you look at the stock price in Hong Kong, it may be cheaper by more than half. People naturally have an economic reason to go there. Of course, retail, food, etc. are all relatively cheap. But if you maintain the cost structure in Hong Kong, it is impossible to do it. Because what you buy in Hong Kong is the same as what you buy in Shenzhen. Retail is exactly the same. In terms of other things, the difference in quality is not so bad that the price can be one time lower. So in the end, the result is that there are a lot of costs in Hong Kong, such as rent, salary, etc. In fact, you have to slowly deal with it. This is the process of one country, one system. That is, the process of destroying Hong Kong. The process of destroying Hong Kong is simple, of course. Hong Kong will always be here. The problem is that there are premium companies in Hong Kong. Those with high cost and high quality will all be gone. It's just a matter of time. Now the door is open. The washing process is faster. So you can see that the collection is getting worse. There are more and more people watching. In fact, this phenomenon was already predicted. When a cup of cold water and a cup of hot water are mixed together, of course the hot water will change. This is for sure. Now we are going through this process. Recently, gold, oil, etc. have become stronger. The US dollar has always been strong. What is the reason? I think it has something to do with the Middle East. Because Israel is like a battle. I don't know if they want to create a third world war or find some excuse to pull America into the water together. Of course, America is now negotiating with them. They don't want to fight with them. But they are like this. They bombed the embassy. In fact, it must have caused a war in the Middle East. The Middle East is also producing oil. Oil must be rising. The oil price suddenly rose by $10. In this age, gold also has a component of war. The factor is behind. So gold is also a bit of a follow-up. The speed of the rise of gold seems to be relatively slower than oil. As for other assets related to the war, there is a lot of follow-up. But I have a hunch that if you are now cutting ties with them, for example, it is obvious that if Israel continues to bomb, they will not give you weapons. In fact, the US is very embarrassed. There may be a certain cut here. So when you cut it off, your wartime may be limited to the Middle East. If you are stuck in the Middle East, other non-expressions, such as Russia and China, you will be stuck in Israel, Iran, and Syria. The scale is getting bigger, but it is still limited to the Middle East. So things are rising, but they are also rising in a limited way. It's not like a bomb. If you compare it with Bitcoin, the gold price is relatively high. The US Federal Reserve says that the basis remains unchanged. There must be 2% inflation. If you don't cut ties with them, the US Federal Reserve's strong weapon will cause the entire market to plummet, and the economy will be weak. How long will the US Federal Reserve maintain this weapon? To be honest, because the gold and oil prices are rising, the market view of inflation may change a little. In the past, inflation was not as high as it is now. But if you suddenly say that the war is getting worse, or as we just mentioned, China and the US are discussing the issue of inflation, if the price can't be too low, it will be a threat to inflation. So now the market is not as optimistic as it was before. In the past, inflation was expected to be lower in June, but now it is getting slower. This explains why the stock market has begun to adjust. In the past, the stock market was rising due to the reduction of inflation, but now the market is not as optimistic as it was before. Thank you, Dr. Lai. Thank you. Weifeng Global has found that there are more and more indicators showing that investors from other Asian markets have broken into China's stock market. Originally, investors in China had a relatively low share of Chinese stocks How do you see this phenomenon? Is there something wrong? It's not wrong. I saw this article in the newspaper. I have seen a lot of TV shows that intentionally badmouth China. They intentionally badmouth one side, but it's not necessary. If you look at the stock market objectively, the stock market is not as optimistic as it was before. At the same time, you can see that the relationship between China and the US is getting closer. When it's getting closer, the situation is getting worse. It's not getting better now. For example, the situation in Taiwan is getting better. Of course, there are many US businessmen who have signed up to China. Biden has made a phone call saying that the China election will be held in Taiwan. In fact, the situation in Taiwan is getting worse. From the perspective of the US, in order to become President, the US Congress requires to sell electric vehicles at a low price and break the market and break the rules. When there is pressure from the commercial sector, for example, when Biden wants to get votes, he has to come over and do something in the situation or in reality, he has to do something. If you come over and say that everyone can do something in the market, then it's OK, no problem. Now the whole process of the market sees that it is going down, the confidence will be a little higher. Because recently, for example, the PMI of the mainland has risen by two, 50 or more. This is an excuse for the market to go down. Because you were too greedy before, because there is a certain proportion of funds to look at the mainland, to look at the Chinese and Hong Kong stocks, so you have to look at this side, and then you can buy outside, buy U.S. stocks, buy Japanese stocks. But now you have bought U.S. stocks and Japanese stocks to this point, I just told you that U.S. stocks have dropped a lot, the investment has dropped by more than 500. In fact, you will see that whether it is U.S. stocks or Japanese stocks, they have been going down a bit recently, and some people want to make adjustments. When you make adjustments, the money will be transferred back and forth. Then the U.S. or Japan will be willing to withdraw money. If they are willing to withdraw money, they may take the opportunity to go back to the Chinese and Hong Kong stocks. When the money goes back, at the same time, a bunch of big business owners come over, it seems that there is a little bit of FDI, investment, when this kind of momentum, this kind of attitude comes out, the whole negotiation process will be very clear. You have to make some adjustments in the mainland, so that the market does not do too much bargaining at the export. Because there is a step at the export, if they don't bargain, they will make a little money. If they make a little money, you will make a little money on the other side. In fact, I think everyone should look at the second stage. In this context, in fact, you can see that the whole thing is developing like this. So some comments are not very familiar, I don't think it's just any bad news from the mainland, just keep bringing it up. In fact, it's not like that. The whole process is not understood that way. There are some things in the middle, you loosen up, I'll go away. In this process, it's like dancing tic-tac-toe. Everyone keeps guessing, and then guess the result. In fact, this is a dynamic balance. This is the actual situation. Of course, the whole mainland is not saying that if you sing it well, it will be good. It is bad now, and it will always be bad. But the process of bad is actually more repetitive. Not every negative news, every bad thing can be infinitely magnified, and all the good things are hidden. This is equivalent to a spread of facts. In fact, the spread of facts is not like this. Hello, Dr. Guo. Yes. After President Biden and the Chinese President Xi Jinping made contact on the phone, they really visited China. They have already been to mainland China. But there are two questions that everyone should pay attention to. Why did he meet with the former deputy prime minister Liu Hao, who had already retired? I guess Li Qiang didn't know him well. He was really always involved in the economy. Liu Hao was a military strategist. In the past, he was the leader of the Communist Party of China. Now, he is looking for an obedient prime minister. But the one who is obedient may be incompetent. In the end, you have to find someone who really knows him and talk to him. So there is such an awkward situation. He also said that he wanted to discuss the economy and production capacity with Chinese officials. But the solar panels are now produced by China at a very low price, not to mention other batteries and electric vehicles. To be honest, what effect will it have? What is the result of the negotiation with China? The strategy of selling to mainland China has always been cheap. It is a fact that it is cheap. But do you think the US side is very reasonable? In fact, to some extent, yes, but it is not very strong. You just said in today's news that Bloomberg has also analyzed whether China's products are really cheap in the US. Is there no price reason? No. In fact, Bloomberg's analysis is that the production efficiency in the US is not very high, so the competitiveness is not very strong. If your competitiveness is not very high, of course, the price you sell will not be cheap. If you fight with the mainland, you will not win easily. But now it is not about these things. It's all about power. If the power is suppressed, in fact, this is a political negotiation more than an economic negotiation. In fact, the mainland does not sell high-end products. It sells low-end products, which is cheaper in the US. In the past, if the European and American inflation was high, it didn't matter. If you sell cheap products, the inflation will be lower. But now the inflation is so low that it keeps falling. The market share is more tense than before. So if you have something, whether it is a solar panel, you have a chance to monopolize the world. If you make the EU and the US can't rely on the mainland, they will be very careful in these places. They won't let you monopolize the market so easily. So what they are doing now is mainly talking about these things. The so-called industrial capacity is excessive, which means you have a lot of cheap products in the market. So they are trying to lower the market. I think the expectation is that you don't use a bargaining angle. Bargaining is usually using a very low price to push a lot out of the market. You may have to sell at a price that is too high. In fact, bargaining is more important than other things. In the process of bargaining, you can't sell at a too low price. Recently, the mainland still wants to depreciate the RMB. If the price is cheap enough, the cost is cheap, the price is cheap, plus the RMB is cheap, it is difficult for them to compete with you. When they compete with you, they will issue tariffs. When you actually export to their market, the price is not very different from theirs, and even the penalty is higher. You have to think about it. If you are releasing electric cars, you sell them in Europe and America. I don't think this will sell in Africa. If the process of negotiating is that you negotiate like this, it will definitely be taxed so that you can't do it. If you can't do it, you will die yourself. Because now your economy is in trouble, everyone can see it. You have to be able to sell it at the moment when you rely on foreign exchange. The process of whether you can sell it or not is not purely a business consideration. At the political and diplomatic level, it is also a question of whether people allow you to go in. If people don't allow you to go in, even if you say it's not a market reason, even if you say it doesn't make sense, it doesn't make sense. But when they don't allow you to go in, you have to deal with it. So to a certain extent, if there is a threat of taxation, or when it is discussed in the trade, whether to win or not, you have the pressure that at least this matter may be delayed. It's not so easy to sell it right away. The stock price of the electric car solar panel manufacturers may fall, etc. When there is such a threat, you have to deal with it more or less. Because now you can see that it's not just the U.S. that is making noise. The EU is also making noise. The EU has been talking about this kind of negotiation recently. But now the EU's attitude is not as obvious as the U.S. I feel that the EU is now looking at the head of the U.S. to see how your public opinion has been discussed in the past. If you say that you want to make a deal with the mainland, the EU may actually follow. If you follow now, the attitude of the two sides of the EU and the U.S. is the same. The two markets of the EU and the U.S. are quite large. If you are talking about the electric car solar panel now, when you can't go out, when you are stuck in tariffs, and the EU and the U.S. ban you together, you will die. So you can't help it. Now they are pinching you like this. You may have to talk to them. There should be some room in the middle. I don't think it's all about the EU and the U.S. Maybe you can't sell too cheaply. Of course, it's not that there's no money in the middle. If the price you sell is not too cheap, for example, if Uniprice is more expensive, you will earn more, right? To be honest, this is not their side. The problem is that the competitiveness is relatively low. So if the price is not too competitive, the amount you sell may be less. If the price is more expensive, the amount is less. Maybe the amount you sell is more or less. We don't know yet. But it's possible that the amount will be less. I think the EU and the U.S. will calculate the number. In fact, it's a market share. How much market share do you have? How much is his? There is a political argument in the middle. After the argument, for example, you have your market share, then you maximize your profit. So you can see where you can sell at the best price. This is a loss in a way, but it's not a total loss. It's just that everyone is on their own side. That's what I mean. You said that the CCP wants the people to be depreciated. Now you see the U.S. dollar here. It doesn't necessarily want the people to be depreciated. I think this is a weapon. If it doesn't work out, for example, you are talking about the stock market. I think there are some things that can be discussed. Because if it doesn't work out at all, the public opinion won't be so stupid to come over. Only when they can come over can they touch the bottom. There should be some results that can be discussed. There are some things that the mainland is OK with. Then they will come over. If it works out, the RMB as a weapon doesn't need to be depreciated immediately. If it doesn't work out, it will be depreciated. Because you can't do it by negotiating. The only way is to depreciate the price. Now you see that the RMB has depreciated. In fact, it has been stable for the past few days. I think the previous one or two depreciation is a signal to the US. This is also their tool. They can use it as a weapon. But now it ends up that this round can be discussed. It's purely a matter of negotiation. Can we get the agreement? Then we don't need to use the exchange rate as a weapon. Now if you really get it, you use the RMB depreciation as a threat. Then the US can use the exchange rate to manipulate the country. The US can manipulate the country so that we can take a step forward. If you continue to fight like this, everyone will be hurt.