How to interpret Putin-Xi interactions at the Belt and Road Forum?

Hi. Hi, everyone. Welcome. Welcome to today's real talk. I'm trying to be on time. So, okay, I'm not too bad today, only three minutes late. Well, thank you for joining me. This probably will be the most ambitious, how do I say, this will be the live stream with the most ambitious audio-visual aid, because I have four videos and a PPT prepared for tonight. Okay, let's get started. We've been talking about the speculation that China and Russia are behind the Hamas attack or the conflict in the Middle East, right? We've covered that topic. And now Putin and Xi Jinping are meeting in Beijing at this Belt and Road Forum. So let's talk about the unusual. I had created two titles. The first one is called How to Interpret Putin-Xi Interactions at the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing. And then I was eager to learn a word I learned today. I learned the word bromance today, and I somehow wanted to use that word. So I also called it The Unusual Putin-Xi Bromance at the Belt and Road Forum. But I think the first one is more accurate, how to interpret their interactions at the forum. So we'll separate that into two discussions, the pre-game show, the pre-game warm-up before the forum, and also what actually happened. I want to focus on the bitter. I think there's a bitter negotiation between the two that has accompanied Putin's trip. So that's what we will spend most of the time going on. That will show you the dynamic relations between the two. Just a little background information on Belt and Road. It's Xi Jinping's signature project. Six months after he officially became the president of China in March 2013, he proposed the Silk Road Economic Belt Initiative when visiting Kazakhstan in September that year. And in October 2013, that is, he proposed the Maritime Silk Road in Indonesia. And in November, the Belt and Road Initiative was formally established as a national strategy at the third plenary session of the 18th Party Congress. So this year makes the 10th anniversary of BRI, and Beijing is hosting the third BRI forum from October 17th to the 18th. On the surface, BRI is an economic infrastructure project. In essence, it's CCP's geopolitical expansion vehicle for the regime to obtain an upper hand in a competition with the United States under the banner of building a community of common destiny. Now China announced that representatives of some 130 countries and 30 global organizations are attending the two-day summit. I don't know if they have delegates from that many countries, but that's what they claim. Most of the participants are from countries described by China's foreign ministry as countries whose leaders sympathize with China and complain about the existing world order. I think there's an insinuation about the United States here. And the countries include Argentina, Saudi Arabia, and Serbia. Anyways, Xi Jinping's goal is to create a platform controlled by Beijing that competes with the G20 summit. It will be the equivalent of a G20 summit, but comprised of countries or the major powers that oppose the United States. And this is the real goal behind the BRI. I saw Western media focused on the discussions about the debt, the financials, the projects, but I don't think Xi Jinping really cares about that as much. He may one day, with the wave of his hand, say, I forgive you all these, I forgive all the debts. He may do that because money in his mind is not as important as having a platform that directly competes with the United States. So this is far more important than the financial discussions. Of course, the biggest news about the forum is the Putin-Xi meeting. That's the purpose of tonight's live stream. It's their third meeting in less than two years. The first was in February 2022, at the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics. After returning to Moscow, Putin invaded Ukraine. The second meeting was this March when Xi Jinping visited Moscow. If you look at Xi Jinping's international trips, his visit to Moscow is his only state visit independent of any other diplomatic events. In other words, all the state visits he made from 2020 to present were in conjunction with some sort of events, like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in September 2022, the G20 and APEC in November 2022, and the Arab-China Summit in December last year. This year, he only made two trips, the visit to Moscow, and the second time was to South Africa to attend the BRICS Summit. You see, Xi Jinping's trip to Moscow to visit Putin was the only trip he made for the sole purpose of visiting someone, independent of any other events. This shows you how important Russia and Putin are to Xi Jinping. He calls Putin his best friend. I think that shows you why. Now, given how isolated Putin is in the international community and how Xi Jinping's troubled relations with the United States and the West are at the moment, this meeting is extremely important to both of them. In the aftermath of Hamas's attack on Israel, how they take advantage of the crisis is of great concern to them. Also, this would be Putin's first major international trip since when the international court issued a warrant for his arrest for war crimes. So, let's talk about before the meeting. I said it's important to them. You can tell by the pre-game show, okay? So, on Putin's birthday, let me, oh, I didn't, I have pictures to show you. Oh, here we go. Where did that go? Add to stage. Here we go. Oh, here we go. Have you seen this picture? Probably you have. Okay. So, on Putin's birthday, October 7th, which was also the day Hamas attacked Israel, the southern city of Guangzhou spent a good amount of money to create a light show by using drones. And they said, happy birthday, Mr. President. And Chinese were utterly shocked. And they said, well, whose president is this? And because the Chinese don't even do this for Xi Jinping's birthday or anyone's birthday. Well, it was for Putin. So, you see how the CCP went out of its way to celebrate Putin's birthday. But keep in mind, when CCP goes out of its way to be extremely nice to someone, it means that it wants something from that person. Okay, Putin did a favor for Xi Jinping too. He gave a CCTV, which is China's state TV network, an exclusive interview in which he called Xi Jinping a recognized world leader. And he made this description about Xi Jinping. I will uh, I'll share with you this video. I think it will be good to, but it's in Chinese. I wonder, let me see if I can play that. If you, well, the subtitle is in Chinese. The speech is in Russian. So, if you speak Chinese or Russian, then you have no problem understanding this. But I'll quickly translate that for you. Okay. So, he said President Xi Jinping isn't a leader who makes decisions based on short-term visions, short-term visions. He analyzes, um, let me make myself, can you guys see me? I have no idea where, oh, I'm here. Okay, good. I'm in the corner. Maybe I can make, how about this? This is good. Okay. So, he said President Xi Jinping isn't a leader who makes decisions based on short-term visions. He analyzes and evaluates the situation and makes a long-term decisions based on consideration for the future. This is very important. This is a true world leader. And then he goes on. And then he said he's different from the temp workers who are only here for five minutes on the global stage before disappearing completely. Okay. And then he said, um, he said President Xi Jinping is a different type of people. He is determined, rational, practical, oh, he is a determined, rational, practical, and dependable partner. As long as we reach consensus, we can be sure that we will both be abide by our agreement. Okay. The reason I'm playing this, um, is because, um, I thought it's interesting. He made a, he, he, he, he called the, the, um, the, the publicly elected leaders in democratic world, temp workers, because they don't, they're not in the office very long. Um, but anyways, he, in the same interview, he, uh, Putin compared the Belt and Road Initiative to his own Eurasian Economic Union, EEU, and saying that the two ideas perfectly match. The reason I'm playing this clip is I watched, um, two more other longer clips of his interview, um, done by the Chinese. And I thought the other, when he talked about BRI, when he talked about his EEU, he was kind of just, you know, saying the, you know, saying the words that he knows will make Xi Jinping happy. It's something right to say. But when he was describing what kind of leader Xi Jinping was, because that was the question that the person, um, that the interviewer gave him, I thought he was very, um, he appeared to be more genuine than the other two clips. So, um, I thought that's interesting. All right. Um, however, with all the pregame show, Putin's trip to China didn't happen easily. The two sides engaged in what I call a painful and bitter negotiation right before Putin landed in Beijing. It may still be going on. I mean, the negotiation, how did I come up with that conclusion? Well, comparing the previous two Belt and Road Forums that he attended in 2014 and 2019, his participation this time seems to have many twists and turns. First of all, um, let me come back. It's regarding his status as the guest of honor. Let me get rid of this image. Um, how do I do that? Oh, here we go. Uh, at the previous two forums, Beijing's official press reports announced in advance that Putin would attend the forum as the guest of honor and, um, and would deliver a speech. This time, Beijing's official media has not mentioned his status as the guest of honor. Instead, he's given the same status as all the other heads of state, just a guest. Um, I think Beijing is reluctant to make Putin, um, the guest of honor as other heads of state or organizations may not be happy to attend an event where Putin was honored. Um, um, given that he's charged by, by, by the international court for war crimes, Xi Jinping and the CCP must take that into considerations. And I think this is one of the things two sides negotiated, but it resulted in something very odd. Um, although no Chinese media called Putin the guest of honor, Russian media outlets and Western mainstream media, such as the Reuters, acknowledged that Putin is the chief guest, chief guest at the event, and will be giving a speech immediately after Xi Jinping on Wednesday. And on October 15th, Putin's press secretary, Vladimir Peskov, Peskov, told reporters on Russia One television that there will be a lot of guests who will visit President Xi Jinping, but President Putin will be the main guest or chief guest, and they will find time for a private talk. So not just the Russian media, but mainstream Western media also acknowledged Putin's status as, um, as the chief guest. So that got me thinking, you know, I was like, well, how did I, why, you know, the Chinese don't say that, but the Western media said that. I think this is the result of the negotiation. I think the Chinese decided to give Putin the honor of a chief guest, but not to call him one in its publicity. So Putin will be given the honor of a chief guest, but it will, he will not be officially called so, or called such. But the CCP allowed the Russian and Western media to use the term in their press releases. This way, the Chinese saves Putin's face while covering for its, for itself, in case they're being challenged, right? So then it could, it would argue, well, I never call him the guest of honor. So this is the typical CCP way of doing things. It's called one country, no, one country, two systems, or in this case, one protocol, two stories or two versions. So that's just one issue, and I don't think it's a major one, but there are other oddities or unusual phenomena about Putin's visit to China. Other than his status, oh, I want to, oh, wait a minute. I have a video to show you. I have a video to show you. This video will show you, he is treated as the guest of honor. The music is really loud, but the video is short. This is just how they walk into, I think, the banquet hall. It will show you how Putin was given a special. Okay. So it shows you how Putin walked in with Xi Jinping side by side, even Xi Jinping's wife was walking behind them. So he was, in fact, given the guest of honor protocol. Other odd things. Okay. The issue is, unlike the previous forums that he attended, in which he arrived with his team together in Beijing. This time, he didn't. His foreign minister arrived in Beijing first when he was in Kyrgyzstan, Kyrgyzstan. And this is odd. Why wouldn't they arrive simultaneously? So if you study their press release, it says Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Beijing on June 16th with the Russian delegation. Upon arrival, he met with his counterpart, China's foreign minister Wang Yi, who briefed the Russian foreign minister on his meeting with Biden's security advisor, Jake Sullivan, in Malta, while Lavrov briefed Wang Yi on North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's visit to Russia. During the meeting, the pair talked about the Belt and Road Cooperation, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the BRICS organization, and exchanged their views on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. I think Putin and Xi didn't finish negotiating the terms of Putin's visit until the very last minute. So Putin sent his foreign minister to come first, to iron out any remaining issues, to pave the way for the meeting. While he waited, where did he go to wait? Well, he paid a state visit to Kyrgyzstan. Am I saying it right? These names, the five stands, the five stands. Which one is this? Kyrgyzstan, Kyrgyzstan, yeah. So, he paid a state visit from the 12th to the 16th. And this will make his wait look normal, because he was on his way from Moscow to China. Why do I say the two sides were still negotiating? Well, because they didn't announce Putin's arrival until the very, very last minute. So, on October 10th, a spokesman for the Russian foreign ministry said that its foreign minister would visit China from the 16th to the 18th and have talks with Wang Yi, but didn't mention the date of Putin's visit. And the next day, a spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry responded to a question about whether Putin would attend the forum by saying, we will release news in due course. And on the same day, Putin's press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, said the same thing. He said the Kremlin would notify the date of Putin's visit in due course. And Putin's aide for handling international affairs, I think his last name is Ushakov, said that Putin's visit to China would depend on a variety of factors. So, what are these factors? It sounds like the two sides are in a tough negotiation. So, while China and Russia were playing dumb about the exact date of Putin's visit to China, Putin just traveled to Kyrgyzstan on the 12th and stayed there until all the issues were ironed out. There's another reason why going to Kyrgyzstan was beneficial, because it wouldn't make his trip to China the first international trip after the arrest warrant. I think this may be a demand made by the Chinese. This would alleviate the pressure on Xi Jinping for hosting Putin's first international trip as a war criminal. You may ask, why does Xi Jinping care? Well, they do care. That's just how they think. They care about a lot of things. They're very secretive, conniving type of beings, shall we say. Everybody knows that they're buddy-buddies, but then he does not want to appear that he was the first one who hosted that trip. So, Putin's visit to Beijing was not announced until 8pm on the 16th, after the two foreign ministers finished their meeting. By then, the leaders of many other countries had already arrived in Beijing. Putin arrived the following day. I still don't think Putin got what he wanted in the negotiation. The most important item for Putin is probably the lucrative Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline, which will send natural gas from western Siberia to China. This is something that the Russians wanted, had been negotiating for quite a while, but the Chinese have not given them that. But, to give his Chinese friend a stick warning on his head, today, while Putin is in China, his finance minister, I think his name is Antoine Saluanov, made this speech at a meeting of the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes. This is on the first day of Putin's visit to China. I'll play the video. It's in Russian, but it has an English subtitle. It disclosed a piece of information that's very important. Where is that video? Here we go. Let me start from the very beginning. Okay. So, he inadvertently disclosed that all of their drones came from China. That's a major release of information. But the Russians have the habit of inadvertently releasing information about how the Chinese have been helping them in the war. Every now and then, whenever Putin was disappointed with Xi Jinping, there is a pattern. So, how could this be timed so perfectly? So, I think Putin is still negotiating with the Chinese in Beijing right now. Okay, so now he came, and tonight he attended the welcoming dinner Xi Jinping and his wife hosted. Xi Jinping gave him the guest of honor welcome and posed for a picture with him. After the photo shoot, Putin was going to step away. I think he was a little confused, and Xi Jinping told him to stay and take a group picture. But Putin looked a little bit surprised. I think after the photo shoot, he was going to step away and maybe let other leaders come. But I think he was surprised. So, I think Putin didn't really expect to be given the guest of honor protocol. I think he appeared to be a little surprised. Let me play that video. I thought that video was very interesting. Where did that go? Oh, okay. I have to find share screen. Okay, here we go. Share. Okay, here we go. I think he's ready to leave. And then Xi Jinping got him back. And then they were joined by all the other leaders. Okay, how do I end this? Okay, so that's the group picture. So, with all that said, the highlight of Putin's visit to Beijing is yet to come because the most important part of his visit will be his private conversation with Xi Jinping, which will take place on Wednesday, as well as Xi's speech and his speech, if he would give a speech. What will the two men talk about? Well, according to Putin's press secretary, the conversation will be highly focused on the global situation. Currently, the global situation is the crisis in the Middle East, right? So, we will see. We'll see what will happen tomorrow when the meeting actually takes place. What I want to mention is, at the forum, Putin also met with, what's his name, the Hungarian leader. People say he went there to meet Putin instead of Xi Jinping. And then Putin also met with other leaders, like the leader from Vietnam. So, you see how, I think from the CCP's perspective, it wants to create this platform, like a G20 type of event to compete with the United States by providing people a chance to mingle and connect. But it's for a different group of audience. And the Taliban government of Afghanistan is also invited. Taliban's acting minister of commerce and industry attended the event. So, no country has formally recognized the Taliban government yet. China was the first country to appoint a new ambassador to Taliban-led Afghanistan, and its official relations with Taliban are very close. So, I think the whole event, like I said, is just to create a G20 type of event to compete with the United States. And I think from their perspective, you could say that Xi Jinping can claim internally that he achieved that goal. At least he brought Putin and the Hungarian leader together. So, that's what I have gathered so far. I think tomorrow should be more interesting. All right, this is quite a lot. Let me see if people have questions for me. There are a lot of discussions because we removed the slow mode. Yeah, did we remove the slow mode? We did, right? So, there are a lot of comments. Okay, let me see if people have questions for me. Okay, all right, if you have questions for me, put my name in the front so I know it's addressed to me. That's all. Okay, no questions. That's pretty good. I guess I'm doing pretty well. Or you guys are actively involved in your online discussions, in your online chat activities. All right. Sumiland, Putin does not like getting near anyone. Doubles let people hug him and take selfies. Putin never let anyone touch him. I cannot comment on that. All right, if that's all, then we'll end it here. I hope this information is helpful, and I'll see you in a few days. All right, bye-bye!