US-China Rivalry: Will the Pacific Islands Become a New Battleground?

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited the South Pacific region from May 26 to June 4, and the highlight of the visit was a May 30 video meeting between Wang and the foreign ministers of 10 South Pacific nations. Wang attempted but failed to reach a regional agreement with the 10 island nations covering police, security, and data communications cooperation. The agreements first disclosed by Reuters have drawn significant attention from the US, Australia, New Zealand, and other democracies. The South Pacific island nations have concerns about the draft inaction plan for Communist China's engagement in the region and don't agree with the content or the way the agreement was promoted. Wang Yi's unprecedented visit to the region prompted the US to recognize the urgency of strengthening its engagement in the region. In February, Fiji hosted US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the first visit by a sitting US Secretary of State in nearly 40 years. Kirk Campbell, the National Security Council's Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs, visited Fiji in April, and Australia's new foreign minister, Penny Wong, visited Fiji at the same time as Wong's visit to the Pacific island nation. Why Are Pacific Island Countries Not Happy With China's Draft Agreements? The two draft agreements, known as China-Pacific Island Countries Common Development Vision, as well as a five-year action plan, were distributed by Beijing officials to the 10 island countries before Wang Yi's visit. Two key elements of the agreements are that China will provide millions of dollars in aid to the 10 South Pacific countries and establish a free trade area that will give them access to China's market of 1.4 billion people. At the same time, China will train local police officers, participate in cybersecurity and smart customs, expand political ties, conduct sensitive marine mapping, and increase access to natural resources in the 10 South Pacific countries. In a joint press conference with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, the Samoan Prime Minister and Foreign Minister said, To be called in to have that discussion and have an expectation that there would be a comprehensive decision or outcome was something that we could not agree to. decision or outcome was something that we could not agree to. So I think the region has come to that conclusion that we need to meet as a region to consider any proposal that's put to us by our development partners that requires a regional agreement. Regional security is an issue for the Pacific family. We have consistently taken the view that what sovereign nations do, and sovereign nations are sovereign, but ultimately have the potential to affect the nature of the security arrangements of the region. So having a collective consideration of those matters is important. I think that's a long-winded way of saying I think it was a very wise intervention. On May 20, the President of the Federated States of Micronesia wrote a letter to 21 Pacific leaders saying his country felt it should reject the pre-established joint communique. This could trigger a new Cold War between the Chinese Communist Party, or CCP, and the West. This move by the CCP is aimed at bringing the island nations more into Beijing's orbit. China's proposed plan would bring the South Pacific states closer to Beijing, essentially linking the overall economy and society in the region to Beijing. He noted that Micronesia must avoid giving China the false impression that it can do whatever it wants in the region. By allowing the CCP to control the communications infrastructure, maritime territory, and security of Pacific nations, the Pacific nations would be collateral damage if the CCP invaded Taiwan, increasing its chances of military conflict with the US and its allies. Dr. Anna Powles, senior lecturer in security studies at Macy University in New Zealand, said it was not surprising that the paper wasn't accepted for publication by the foreign ministers. There was a strong sense of unease among Pacific island leaders about the joint statement, about parts of it, and about China's attempts to secure their agreement to it. It creates a dilemma for the Pacific island countries, or those countries that have long been in debt to China. Why did the two draft agreements receive so much attention? Back in late March, an agreement was signed between Beijing and the Solomon Islands. It allows China to send naval vessels for stopovers and transitions on the islands. It also allows Beijing to deploy troops to protect the Chinese people and projects in the region. The Solomon Islands can request that China send police, armed police, military personnel, and other law enforcement and armed forces. Richard Herr, a professor in Australia, said in an interview with the Voice of America. The fact that China and the Solomon Islands signed a security cooperation framework at the end of March has put Western democracies on alert, because the region has been protected and supported by Western countries, such as the US and Australia, for a long time since World War II, and has always had the relationship of friendship and mutual trust. The US and Australia believe that the security agreement with China will disrupt regional security and allow China to gain a legitimate military foothold in the region, as if it were being invaded by China. In less than two months, China has once again reached out to 10 island nations in the region, and the draft agreement that has been released includes sensitive cooperation on policing and security. So naturally, the US and Australia are quite nervous. Lin Tinghui, deputy secretary general of the Taiwanese Society of International Law and a member of the Ocean Commission, said that in addition to the timing, the geographical location of the South Pacific is the fundamental reason for the high level of concern among countries. The agreement was negotiated after the signing of the China-Solomon Islands security cooperation framework agreement. China wants to expand this model to other states in the Pacific, most of which are located between the second and third island chains, and some believe that the South Pacific island states are located in the first island chain before Australia and New Zealand, so the geopolitical and strategic position is very important. Why does the US and Australia want to curb CCP influence in the Pacific island nations? When the US turned its attention to the Middle East in the early 2000s, the CCP seized the situation and stepped up its activities in the Pacific, inducing the Solomon Islands and Kuribas to break diplomatic ties with Taiwan and establish diplomatic relations with Beijing in 2019. In recent years, it has also increased its support for a number of infrastructure projects in the Pacific Islands region. From the perspective of Washington and Canberra, Beijing is strengthening its ties with countries throughout the South Pacific as it seeks to establish a military foothold in the region. This will have an impact on the US and Australian military presence in the South Pacific. The US has military bases in the South Pacific and has signed the Compact of Free Association with the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Republic of Palau, which gives the US the right to conduct military operations in the territorial air and waters of these countries. Australia operates its own navy in the region and has long maintained defense and security ties with neighboring island governments, including in the areas of peacekeeping and military training. Both Australia and New Zealand are part of a regional and bilateral security treaty in the Pacific. In the face of growing CCP expansion, the US, Australia, and New Zealand have scrambled to strengthen their engagement in the Pacific, from Australia's enhanced Pacific engagement and New Zealand's Pacific reset to Washington's 2020 Pacific Pledge. Recently, the US president and the New Zealand prime minister issued a joint statement during a meeting at the White House, highlighting concerns about a sustained military presence in the Pacific by a country that does not share our values. At the meeting, President Biden said Washington has no intention of dictating to the region, but rather of working with these countries. We have more work to do on these Pacific Islands, he said.