The Showdown Before the Fifth Plenum

Why were Hu Chunhua and China’s military elders absent from a major ceremony in Beijing just before the Fifth Plenum? What could their absence reveal about Xi’s support inside the military—and the struggle over who comes next?

In this episode we examine the reported absences, competing messages from military and Party publications, and mounting pressure on Cai Qi’s political network.

A senior Party source offers an account of private meetings between Hu Chunhua and military elders. We explain what the source claims, what remains unverified, and why the next leadership appointments could matter more than whether Xi keeps his official titles.

We also examine reports concerning Cai Qi’s allies Xia Linmao and Liu Hongjian, and the signals to watch for in the Politburo and the Central Military Commission.

The episode closes with the reported earthquake in Tibet and the ancient Chinese belief that natural events can carry warnings for those in power.



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