Beban Utang Laos Melonjak Tinggi Akibat Ikut OBOR, Akankah Bernasib Seperti Sri Lanka ?

Hello viewers The deteriorating economic situation in Laos at the moment become a concern for the international community worried about reigniting the second round of measures Its economy also collapsed because it participated in China's Belt and Road Initiative Experts indicate that in addition to the continuous decline in foreign exchange reserves More than half of Laos's foreign debt is related to the China Light project Where it is feared that Laos will be forced to use its right to sovereignty and its resources To gain Beijing's sympathy in settling its debt Nikkei News reports that as foreign debt pressure increases Laos's inflation rate is also intensifying The situation has caused many Lao people to cross the Mekong River to Thailand to buy supplies At the Nongkai city gas station located on the western bank of the Mekong River The vehicles are parked in a long line Reflecting the differences among residents living on opposite sides of the river Kiri Malaya a gas station attendant said that drivers with Lao license plates usually have two requests Fill up the vehicle in the pool tank Second he also asked to fill the 20-liter jerrycan completely with fuel for emergency use Many of these people drive luxury SUVs or Mercedes-Benz cars Some of the drivers often refuel here so we know each other They often complain about the high fuel prices in Laos or frequently face insufficient supply The Kiri Malaya with his hands while refueling a black Range Rover and a blue drum The gas station in Nongkai city Thailand became busy since this June as a result of a 107.1 percent increase in gasoline prices in Laos It's not that there's no merchandise in Laos but it's not being sold because of the price It should be noted that fuel is not the only item that Laotian citizens purchase from abroad A woman who works in an office said that she came to Thailand to buy household goods like soap detergent clothes and even food because some items are not available in local Laotian stores Or the price is now more expensive than before A person who works as a baker is worried about the increase ingredient costs Economic experts warn that the ruling party in Laos The people's revolutionary party has planted many mines in the country's economy The Lao government's 1.8 billion USD fiscal deficit proposal has been fully utilized They are now facing an inability to cover their large foreign debt While the debt is largely related to the construction of the multi-billion-dollar China Torch railway line project That is why the international community is worried that Laos might become the next Sri Lanka Sri Lanka is running out of foreign exchange reserves to pay its foreign debt this April It became the first country in Southeast Asia to default on debt in recent decades Alex Kramer World Bank country manager said that the economic situation in Laos is very challenging The World Bank warned in May this year that the consequences of an unbalanced rise between expenditures and income Most of the population of Laos especially in urban areas will be at risk of falling into poverty Currently Laos has a population of about 7 million people The country's inflation rate reached 25.6% this July The Lao government is facing a dual deficit Alex Kramer said that Laos' structural economic weaknesses stem from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic The deteriorating global macroeconomic environment and the rapid devaluation of the Lao kip also have an impact A year ago 1 USD was worth 9 400 kip However in mid-2022 Some currency exchange offices offer 1 USD equal to 15 000 Lao kip In the black market even its exchange rate reached 19 000 low-kip The collapse of the Lao kip has prompted analysts to warn that Laos's foreign exchange reserves are in a very minimal condition Currently the amount is probably around 1.3 billion USD which is enough to cover imports for 2.2 months While the country is facing the need to repay its foreign debt of 1.3 billion USD in 2022 Sathit Talahengsataya a senior economist at a Thai research institute said Laos is experiencing a double deficit A fiscal deficit and the other is a current account deficit amid insufficient foreign exchange reserves He said that over the last decade The Lao government faces a fiscal deficit equivalent to 3% to 4% of GDP each year A large amount of external financing is needed by Laos It has caused a current account deficit exceeding 10% of the country's average GDP The new Governor of the Bank of Laos Bonli Shing-Shiang Forapong hinted at a financial crisis in his official speech several days ago She said from the beginning of 2021 until the first quarter of this year Laos should have received 9.81 billion USD but only 32% of that has entered the Lao banking system However Lao authorities continue to conceal the large amount of government debt to Beijing and the potential impact on the country According to an international research laboratory at the College of William and Mary called Aridata at during the loan frenzy from 2000 to 2017 Laos has accumulated official foreign debt of 5.57 billion USD but this is just a small part Overall his debt exposure to China reached 12.2 billion USD or about 64.8% of Laos' GDP That's all for today's topic thank you for your attention