Reckless Raid Boosts America First Candidates | Over The Target

Good morning and welcome over the Target Live. We've got a great show today befitting a very important and interesting pivotal, perhaps historically pivotal Newsweek. And we're gonna get to that in one second. I just wanna remind you, if you are watching on YouTube or Facebook, please make sure to make the jump with us at the 20 minute mark. At 20 minutes, we'll be going exclusively to Epoch TV and you're not gonna wanna miss a single second of today's show. We're gonna be speaking with the great pollster, Rich Barris, who has a profound insight into what's happening right now, what November is going to look like and also how the raid on Mar-a-Lago may have shaped the political landscape, including the electoral landscape that we'll see unfolding more and more over the next few months. So again, you don't wanna miss a single second. I'll give you a countdown at 20 minutes. We'll go away for a second or two and then make the jump with us watching exclusively on Epoch TV. And now without further ado, Rich Barris, thank you so much for being here today in this really incredible, mind blowing week in many ways, but you have a very interesting perspective on this, on what's happened and how this is gonna shape the political landscape. So again, Rich, thank you for being here. And thanks for having me, Lee. I'm happy to be here. This is an incredible week indeed. Well, so do you wanna tell us how the raid, do we have any indication yet with numbers or just with attitude, has this raid galvanized Republican voters? Has it further motivated the America first base or how do you read this? What's going on right now? You know, I think overall, Republicans were pretty galvanized this year. We saw in primary turnout, they're romping Democrats, even in Arizona, that's going to be a historic turnout. But you have people like Kerry Lake, really, they have a movement. They didn't have a campaign, you know, which is different, always does it. But look at Wisconsin after that raid, Lee, I'll tell you a lot of people, you know, this goes beyond just the turnout that we saw. I know a lot of people who are pulling that race. I know we speak to voters all the time, of course. And that race was closer, or at least on paper, it looked closer than the romp that Michael's ended up giving Rebecca Kleefish, who is a very popular, well-known, almost universal name recognition in the Republican electorate, once had a 30 point lead and got crushed. You know, I mean, the five point win really doesn't show, it doesn't tell the tale. You go through that map and she got drunk. So I think what happened, I mean, there were some people who were saying, I'm going to go with Rebecca, I love the president, but with all due respect, I'm going to go with Rebecca. But then that raid happened and I am almost assured, you know, that changed minds. I mean, what is it, I mean, this may sound naive, but it's interesting to see an immediate effect like this. So how do we know, or how can we get more details on this, what happened? And you're looking at the numbers, you're looking at the size of the lead she had beforehand and how voters were responding Monday and Tuesday, or yeah, how do we get more insight on that? Yeah, so if you look at it, I mean, she was no doubt losing her lead to begin with, siding with Mike Pence at this point, you know, which we can get into. Siding with Mike Pence was a mistake, you know, and she also brought up her relationship with Nikki Haley. So with the Trump endorsement on Tim Michaels that already cost her, you know, that once, I mean, it really is a historic example of somebody blowing a huge primary lead. But that that's being said, we know from the tracking that was right up into the election and that that looked like it was a one point race either way. Clayfish kind of bottomed out, but then she got, she was able to tighten that back up again and then something happened, leads blew wide back open. You know, Michael's campaign, they thought their polling was about a week out. They thought they had a bit more of a comfortable lead, but other polling was definitely showed a tightening. And then when something like that happens, it's tightening and then some, you know, it goes in the other direction. I think without a doubt, I'm definitely willing to entertain that the raid had an impact on that. We have seen already polling from Trafalgar and others that showed Republicans are more enthusiastic to vote because of this. This could have been a major mistake by the president's enemies. But then again, they know they're down. So at this point, I think they're really, they have no choice or in their minds, they have no choice. Otherwise it's Trump 2.0, that's it. How is the, I mean, before we move to, you know, the Democratic Party and how these races will shape up Democrats and Republicans, what's going on inside the Republican Party? And after the Wisconsin race, are people gonna start to say, well, I don't know if a Mike Pence endorsement is actually helpful. What's the score? How many Trump endorsed candidates have won versus Pence endorsed candidates? And yeah, at what point did people say, well, if I don't have a Trump endorsement, I might be in trouble going into this race. I mean, it's basically 55 to one at this point because they got their win in Georgia, Lee, and that's it. The Pence-aligned people got their win in Georgia. They went on around the country to dip their, you know, Arizona was definitely one of the more higher profile. But then Scott Walker got Rebecca Kleyfisch, Mike Pence's endorsement in Wisconsin. And this is what they believed. They believed if anywhere else they can embarrass the president, it would be in Wisconsin because rewind time six years ago. And Donald Trump lost the state of Wisconsin during the Republican primary to Ted Cruz. And they figured there are very different voters in the state of Wisconsin than, you know, not as populous. They miscalculated horribly because if you look at Douglas and Bay and Rusk and Polk, area where there are a lot of Obama-Trump voters, that's where Michaels did exceedingly well. So it was stupid. I mean, there's no other way to put it. I mean, six years ago and a whole lot of promises later, people really miscalculated here. I mean, Wisconsin was the closest Rust Belt state. So, I mean, the fact you think Trump is weak there is very foolish, you know. What do you mean when you say Obama-Trump voters? Did we really see that in Wisconsin? People who went Obama twice and then went Trump twice? This is why I think a lot of primary pollsters are screwing up a little bit. You had even, you know, not to mention, well, whatever. You have Emerson and others polling these races a little bit more favorable to the Pence candidates. What they're not doing is factoring in these new, we call them Trumplicants. They never, they don't have primary vote history or they don't have a big one, especially not in the Republican primary. But when you call them and you talk to them, they tell you they are certain to vote in the primary. A lot of other pollsters, if they even reach them, which is hard to do, they may screen them out because they don't believe they're gonna vote with not having that primary vote history. In the end, these are people who voted for Barack Obama twice. They became Republican Trumplicant, you know, over the period of Donald Trump's presidency. And they would not vote for establishment Republicans. That's why we call them Trumplicants because they would not actually cast a ballot for Rebecca Kleefish in November. They would not cast a ballot for Karen Taylor Robson in November. They're not doing that. And by the way, they, yeah. Yeah, no, I'm just curious, what is it about those? Yeah, what is it about those figures that they say, no, we're not interested in the establishment Republicans? Because we hear all the time, oh, no, no, the Republican Party must return to its roots of Mitt Romney and the Bushes or whatever it is. But you're saying there's lots of people out there who are knowledgeable enough, and that makes them run as though it's a vampire. Why, what's going on? You know, I think there are those of the amount that they're almost like a Ross Perot kind of voter or the same kind of profile that the Ross Perot voters used to be. They loathe the Republican establishment. They don't like the party itself. They like what Donald Trump stood for, but they don't trust Republicans, not to go back, like you just said, to the corporate shills. And, you know, they don't view them as pro-worker and pro-family, and really what it comes down to, Leigh, they don't think they're worth a vote. They don't think they fight. They don't think they defend them. So at the end of the day, they don't view them very different from a Democrat. So, you know, I mean, that's just the truth. They lump them in the basket of just another politician. And if you get put in that basket, you're not getting these voters. And this is why a lot of people, we talk about all these election forecast models, they're totally missing the mark here. You know, the idea that many of these America First candidates are weaker is ridiculous. They are weaker fundraisers. And in many cases, that's true, but they have the ability to get a share of the base vote that these other candidates have no prayer to get. Can you, let's talk about some of these races that have come up. I want, if you can, if we can talk particularly about the John Gibbs race in Michigan, if you can give us some insight because you had something, you know, but we spoke before and I said, you were posting something on Twitter about this, which is just fascinating that people are entirely misreading what's going on. What are they misreading? What is the recipe for success for people like John Gibbs, for people like Joe Kent, what's actually happening? You know, full disclosure too, John Gibbs is a great example, but full disclosure, I polled for John Gibbs. And this is what, and this is the point I was trying to make on Twitter, which is that Lee, at upwards of four in 10 Republicans routinely told us that they would not vote for Peter Mayer if he was the nominee. They would watch him go down. They would just stay home and just not show up or? Or leave the bubble blank, or leave the bubble blank. I mean, we were subjected to profanities on the other end of the line. I mean, these people were angry. There was no chance they were just gonna suck it up and vote for Peter Mayer after his very first vote was to impeach the president. So if you see these- No, is that what they said, that that was the thing that really set them off? It's like, we don't need, or were there other things about Mayer? It was just, it was the vote against Trump. You know, the number one was the vote against Trump. Number two is participation in the January 6th commission. Number three, for people who weren't that offended by those two, they still, you know, I don't wanna call them traditional Republicans because I actually think traditional Republicans are much more like America First Republicans, and they just lost their way during the Bush years. But the thirdly, for those who aren't pro, staunchly pro-Trump, was the gun vote a couple of weeks ago. I mean, it was the beginning of hunting season in Michigan. And people are like, why is this guy a Republican? What is he doing here? And the bottom fell out from him after that happened. I gotta give it to him. He pulled the race really close again. He spent, because he spent a lot of money in the final days. So I think I'm a little bit shocked he even pulled it within six points because at one point it looked like he could get blown out by 20 points. And a lot of money goes, you know, money goes a long way. But here's the point I try to make to these election forecasters. No amount of money. Even if we concede that they are better fundraisers, and Peter Mayer is definitely going to be a better fundraiser than John Gibbs. For people who don't know the Mayer brand, he has a lot of money and he knows people with a lot of money. So I concede that. But no amount of money in the world was going to convince two out of 10, four out of 10 of these Republican voters to vote for him. They would rather, they told us we'll leave the bubble open. We'll leave it open. We'll watch him. We'll watch Hillary beat him. And then we'll find somebody in 2024 who can beat him. So that's, and the same, by the way, the same thing was true in Washington three with Herrera Butler. So again, there is no chance Joe Kent's going to lose that seat. I just got to, I got to say that out loud right away. Full stop. Joe Kent is going to win Washington three. This idea that, well, it's Joe now. So it's a leans Republican seat. That's nuts. I mean, come on. I mean, and another thing that we've heard, we heard it with the Gibbs race was that the Democrats were throwing money and support behind John Gibbs to defeat Peter Mayer. Is this nonsense or what? And I guess we've heard the same thing about Joe Kent as well. So what's going on? What are those talking points about? I think there's no doubt there's a DC mindset that did believe that. Overall though, the money that got thrown at them negative dwarfed those efforts. But I think there is a DC mindset on both sides that says, look, these guys don't fundraise as well. Maybe they'll turn off some moderates. They're, again, that's because of who they are and they don't know the electorate. They're not speaking to the electorate like we are daily. And they just, they're off the mark here. In the end, it backfired on them that thinking they're going to regret it because now they're going to have Joe Kent in Congress. That's it. That's great. That's good news. How much time, it seems like you must spend more time on the phone, you and your team must spend a lot more time on the phone with voters than other people. It just seems like that's where you're gathering a lot of information. How much of what goes into your forecast, your polling, how much of it is looking at numbers? How much of it is talking to people? It's interesting to hear how much you talk to people. Yeah, that's a good question. Yeah, really. And by the way, other people, a lot of people farm out call centers, so we don't. We don't do call center live caller polling like that anymore. We like to talk directly as much as we can, whether that's digital or peer-to-peer, but without getting too into the weeds. That's a good question because there's no doubt that polling is part science and part art form. That is true. If you've ever heard that before, it is accurate. So you could give the same data set to four different pollsters, and they're gonna give you four different results from what they see in that data set. Again, I think that in my case, it's probably somewhere of 80, 20, 80 data, 20, using your experience and your gut. Look, for instance, a great example of this is Ohio. They cannot poll the state of Ohio. And in Southeastern Ohio, there was a ton of those Obama-Trump voters we were just talking about. And if it was just that 80%, it would have told me not to believe those folks. There's no way they're gonna vote for Trump, and they're definitely not gonna vote for Trump in such high numbers. But if you know the area, and this is where the art form comes in, if you know that area and you're familiar with the Appalachia areas of Ohio and Pennsylvania, then it's believable. And a lot of people just simply screen those voters out, or they weight them down so they don't represent as much as the electorate is telling you that they're going to represent. So it's a Wyoming poll that came out the other day, for instance. They're not believing their own likely voter models, so they're weighting up these 18 to 24-year-olds who are patently telling them they're not coming out, but they don't believe it. So they're trying to make their poll look like what they think the electorate's gonna look like instead of listening. That's why I say 80-20, because we do do a lot of listening, and a lot of that, that 20%, that's the art form. That's a good question. I mean, it's a hard one to answer. Yeah, no, I mean, you just talked about you're speaking with people, and it's interesting, because we don't hear that a lot from pollsters, right? We don't hear that a lot on TV. When people are forecasting votes, they get on and they have big boards, and they're crunching numbers, and they're looking historically, but we don't get the sense that they're speaking to lots of people. They get, you know, that they're hearing what people are excited about or what people are angry about. And of course, that's something that happened this week. The motivated by, and it might not just be anger, it's also disgust, right? This is supposed to be a constitutional republic, and what we saw happen Monday has people not just angry, but also alarmed. Look, you mentioned something about Wyoming, and before we, well, we'll cut away in a minute or so, but I just want to start the conversation about Wyoming, about Liz Cheney. So what is happening there, and what is going to happen there? Yeah, so Liz Cheney is going to get crushed. I know there are Democrats who are going to vote for her, but there's just not enough in the state of Wyoming, Lee. You know, there really isn't. And most polls have her around 10 to 15% Republican support. If she's lucky, she's done. And again, if Hagerman gets above 60, hits 60 or gets above 60, it will be because a lot of these pollsters simply thought that some people were going to vote who in the end did not. So there's no doubt that Democrats would absolutely love Liz Cheney to win this race because they know in Wyoming what I was saying before is true, which is that Republicans may just let her lose that at-large seat. If she was to win the primary, which I'm telling you she's not, but if she was going to, then Democrats would actually have a chance. That's how mad the Republican electorate is. It would be a huge number who would just say, nope, not doing it. I'll vote for everything else but her. Well, so what's her future then? I mean, is she going to run for president? I've heard different rumors from different people on the Hill that she's, you know, well, that's how deluded these people are in Washington. No, you're right about that. I mean, they really delude themselves into thinking they're more important than they are, Lee. I think her future is an analyst or an anchor on MSNBC or, you know, or a lobbyist. She'll go back to doing what she does best, which is make K Street rich. Exactly. That's it. That's what it looks like. She's not leaving Washington, but she's not going back to the Hill, not with a seat. So look, let's cut away here. We're going to cut away. If you're watching on Facebook or YouTube, make the jump to Epoch TV. We'll be on. You don't want to miss a single second. The great conversation with the great pollster, Rich Barris. See you in a sec. Make the jump. April, 2001, when the Chinese brought down a U.S. spy plane, right? This wasn't an accident. Chinese jet flew directly at the U.S. spy plane, brought it down over Hainan Island. And you see different news segments from the right and the left. People are up in arms about this, whether it's the New York Times or Fox News. People are looking at the future of conflict with China. In 1991, she went to Tiananmen Square two years after the massacre there, and she protested. She was waving a banner, and she was roughed up by CCP authorities. It's going to continue using these various methods like the drugs coming in through the southern border and these kind of psychological operations that slowly wear down its enemy. Thank you. If you're here, you made the jump. Good decision. Way to spend your morning hearing the great Rich Barris describing what the political landscape looks like now and what it's going to look like in the coming months. Rich, if you can give us like a big picture overview, and I know that that's, you know, your job is fascinating and your work is fascinating because of the detail. But I guess if we can get kind of a big picture, what are the House races going to look like? What are the Senate races going to look like? I mean, of course we've heard the conventional wisdom that there's going to be a red wave in the House and the Senate. The Republicans may not do as well there. So yeah, if you can give us a sense of.