Democrats Take Congress... What Comes Next?

The midterm results are in and Congress has flipped to the Democrats. The question is, what happens now? Welcome to American Uncovered, I'm Chris Chappell. Well, it happened. The blue wave everybody predicted actually showed up this time. And the reaction from Democrats on Capitol Hill was, ooh, let's call it enthusiastic. Robert Garcia, the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, posted two words, lawyer up. Representative Delia Ramirez told Kristi Noem, Mark Wayne Mullen, Stephen Miller, Tom Homan, and Greg Bovino to clear their schedules. And Representative Yasmin Ansari sent a little thank you note to the president, saying Democrats would be coming with subpoenas. Over in the Senate, Ed Markey said they'd need to plant new forests for all the subpoenas we'll be printing. So yeah, the gloves are off. But before we get into what Democrats can actually do with their new majority— and what they can't— let's look at the scoreboard. In the Senate, Democrats flipped seven Republican seats. Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, Maine, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Texas. Kansas elected its first Democratic senator in nearly a century. And Susan Collins, who has survived just about everything, finally lost in Maine. The House is still being counted as of recording, but it is not close. Democrats have won 228 seats at the time of this recording, with dozens more still leaning their way. So that's a decisive win. But here's the number that actually matters for the next two years. To break a filibuster in the Senate, you need 60 votes. To override a presidential veto, you need two-thirds of both chambers. That's 67 senators. And Democrats don't have either. Which means they can pass bills, hold hearings, and block nominees, but they can't make anything become law without Donald Trump's signature. Now, that sounds like a recipe for two years of total gridlock. Well, we've actually been here before, just with the parties flipped. Let's rewind to 1994. Bill Clinton was in the second year of his first term. His health care plan had crashed and burned, and voters were in some kind of a mood. On election night, Republicans gained 54 House seats and 8 Senate seats. It was the first Republican House majority in 40 years. They called it the Republican Revolution. And its leader, Newt Gingrich, came in swinging with his contract with America. He had a plan to force Clinton's hand on the budget. Clinton refused to sign, and the government shut down twice. The first shutdown ran from November 14th to 19th, 1995. The second ran from December 16th all the way to January 6th, 1996. And for the Republicans, it backfired. Most Americans blame them, not Clinton. Clinton's White House chief of staff, Leon Panetta, later said the shutdown was a gift to his boss. It was an opportunity to identify who he was with the public. So both sides blinked. And then, something strange happened. They started making deals. In his 1996 State of the Union, Clinton, a Democrat, stood in front of Congress and said, the era of big government is over, but we cannot go back to the time when our citizens were left to fend for themselves. That August, he signed the Republican-backed welfare reform bill, which he said provides a historic opportunity to end welfare as we know it. Then came the 1997 balanced budget deal. And the year after that... Something that sounds like science fiction today. A federal budget surplus. Now, it wasn't all sunshine. In 1998, House Republicans impeached Clinton over the Lewinsky scandal. And that backfired, too. In the 1998 midterms, the president's party actually gained House seats, which almost never happens. Gingrich was gone as Speaker within months. Clinton, meanwhile, left office with a 66% approval rating, higher than any departing president's December rating since FDR. And in 2000, his vice president, Al Gore, won the popular vote. So the lesson of the 90s is that divided government isn't necessarily the end of the world. A wounded president and a hostile Congress can still get things done. And the side that overplays its hand usually pays for it. But 2027 is not 1995. First, think about why Clinton and Gingrich made deals. Clinton had a reelection campaign in 1996. He needed results to run on. And the new Republican majority needed to prove they could actually govern. Both sides had a reason to show up to the table. Trump doesn't. There's no 2028 ballot with his name on it, at least not legally. Second, the mood is completely different. In the 90s, Democrats and Republicans still had lunch together. Today, the incoming majority is promising investigations before they've even been sworn in. Now, conservatives are already arguing that this is where Democrats will blow it. The Federalist says voters rejected Republicans, but warns Democrats will overplay their hand with all the political reprisals. And if 1998 taught us anything, it's that the American public doesn't always reward the party holding the gavel and the subpoena pin. Democrats would argue that it's just oversight, which is literally Congress's job. And that the last two years gave them plenty to oversee. Either way, it's hard to picture a 1996-style grand bargain coming out of this. So what does Trump plan to do? Before the election, he had a new nickname ready for himself. Mr. Veto. On election night, he doubled down on Fox News, saying, they'll send over things that are insane and I'll veto them. But then, in the very next breath, he said, and after a couple of months of vetoes, they'll go out and they'll say, how do we get this stuff done? And we'll work together. And he even told the New York Times he was looking forward to working with them. So which is it? Veto everything or work together? Honestly, both. And it's not as contradictory as it sounds. Trump's plan is basically this. Veto until Democrats get tired, then cut deals on his terms. It's a negotiating posture. And there are a few places where a deal is possible. Trump has spent years attacking drug companies over prices, and that's a Democratic priority, too. Trade and tariffs scramble the usual party lines. But for most of his agenda, Trump doesn't need Congress at all, because he's got a pen and a phone. That line, of course, belongs to Barack Obama. Thanks, Obama. In January 2014, frustrated with the Republican House, he told reporters before a cabinet meeting that he wasn't going to wait around for Congress. Instead, he said, I've got a pen and I've got a phone. Then, that November, Democrats lost the Senate too. And just two weeks later, Obama went ahead with a sweeping executive action on immigration, aimed at shielding millions from deportation. Republicans called it engaging in an imperial presidency. But here's the catch. Texas sued, the courts froze the program, and in 2016, a deadlocked Supreme Court left that block in place. It never took effect. And that same year, the Republican Senate refused to even hold a hearing for Obama's Supreme Court pick, Merrick Garland. So Obama's last two years show both sides of the coin. A president can do a lot alone, but the courts and the Senate still get to have their say. Trump, though, is starting from a much stronger position than Obama ever had. First, executive orders. Trump has signed them at a record pace, and he isn't going to stop now. Second, the bureaucracy. Trump has spent two years reshaping federal agencies and putting loyalists in charge. They'll keep carrying out his agenda no matter who runs Congress. Third, the courts. The Supreme Court has a 6-3 conservative majority, with half of the conservatives appointed by Trump, although they've certainly proven to be anything but a rubber-stamp court for Trump. And fourth, the money has already been allocated. The one big beautiful bill, signed back in summer of 2025, was passed through budget reconciliation, which means it skipped the filibuster. And it gave ICE... $75 billion in new funding on top of its annual funding. And that money isn't tied to a single year's budget. So even if Democrats use the power of the purse to slash ICE's regular budget, the agency has a war chest to fall back on. We've actually already seen this play out. During this year's DHS shutdown, most immigration enforcement just kept going. A former Biden budget official said Congress had already taken away its ability to rein in the agency by passing the bill. And that's probably why those Democratic tweets were so specific. Noah, Miller, Homan, Bovino. These are the people connected to immigration enforcement. If Democrats can't take the money away, They'll go after the people spending it. So let's talk about those subpoenas, because there's a catch most people don't know about. Congress can issue a subpoena. It can hold you in contempt if you ignore it, but it can't actually criminally prosecute you. For criminal contempt, Congress has to refer the case to the Justice Department. And the Congressional Research Service is pretty clear about who's in charge from there. The executive branch has exclusive authority and absolute discretion to decide whether to prosecute a case. Now, under Biden, that worked. Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro both went to prison for defying the January 6th Committee. But the Justice Department today answers to Donald Trump. So if Kristi Noem or Stephen Miller decides to blow off a subpoena, how eager do you think the DOJ will be to charge them? Congress can also go to court to enforce a subpoena, but that can take years. When House Democrats subpoenaed former White House Counsel Don McGahn in 2019, the fight dragged on for two years before he finally testified. Trump has a little over two years left. Stall long enough and the clock runs out. And then there's impeachment. The House can impeach with a simple majority, and Democrats have that. But to remove anyone from office, you need two-thirds of the Senate. That's 67 votes. And Democrats are well short of that. Trump has already been impeached twice. Both times he was acquitted. A third impeachment would make headlines, but it probably wouldn't change the outcome. So does that mean Democrats are toothless? Not quite. Hearings still make news, documents still leak, and public pressure can still end careers. And the Senate gives Democrats one very real weapon— confirmations. Every cabinet secretary Trump wants to replace, every federal judge he wants to appoint, now has to get past a Democratic Senate. And if a Supreme Court justice retires or passes away before 2029, well, that's Merrick Garland all over again, just in reverse. But before any of that happens, there's one more round to play. The new Congress doesn't get sworn in until January. Until then, Republicans still control both chambers until January 3rd. So keep an eye on what Republicans try to lock in before they hand over the keys. Long-term government funding, military spending, and as many Trump nominees as the Senate can confirm before Democrats take over. After that, the next two years will probably look something like this. Democrats pass bills, Trump vetoes them, Democrats hold hearings, Trump's officials stall, Trump signs executive orders, somebody sues, and the courts sort it out. Maybe somewhere in there the two sides find a deal or two on drug prices or trade. But the real audience for all this isn't in Washington, it's the voters in 2028. Democrats need to show they can do more than investigate. Republicans need to figure out who they are without Trump at the top of the ticket. Trump needs to cement his legacy before he leaves. In 1994, the backlash to an overreaching Congress helped Clinton win a second term. This time, there is no second term on the line. Which might make the next two years a lot less about governing, and a lot more about straight-up war between the branches. But what do you think? Leave your comments below. I do read as many as I can, but I read every comment on AmericaUncovered.tv, where you'll get access to thousands of episodes ad-free, plus a community chat, live streams, and more. I can't afford to keep making this show without your support. Just click this button here or the link below. Once again, I'm Chris Chappell. Thank you for watching America Uncovered.