A new Rasmussen Reports survey shows Social Security is influencing voter priorities ahead of the November congressional elections, with Democrats maintaining an advantage over Republicans as Americans face rising living costs and a projected funding shortfall for retirement benefits.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Social Security has emerged as a major concern for American voters ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections, with 88% of likely voters saying the program is important to their congressional voting decisions, according to a national Rasmussen Reports survey released Tuesday, Oct. 20.
The findings show Democrats holding a seven-percentage-point advantage over Republicans when respondents were asked which political party they trust more to manage Social Security. The results come as approximately 72 million beneficiaries prepare for a 3.6% increase in monthly payments next year, while federal projections warn that the program’s retirement trust fund could exhaust its reserves in 2032.
According to the latest Rasmussen Reports survey, 47% of likely voters said they trust Democrats more to handle Social Security, compared with 40% who selected Republicans. Another 13% said they were uncertain which party would manage the program more effectively.
The Democratic advantage has increased slightly since April, when Rasmussen found that 46% trusted Democrats more and 40% preferred Republicans.
However, the one-point change in Democratic support falls within the survey’s margin of error and does not establish a statistically meaningful shift in public opinion.
The survey also found broad agreement among respondents about the importance of Social Security, even as voters remained divided over which political party they trusted.
Fifty-nine percent described Social Security as “Very important” when deciding how to vote in the upcoming congressional elections, while another 29% considered it “Somewhat important.”
Eight percent said the issue was “Not very important,” and 3% considered it “Not at all important.” Another 2% were unsure.
The results indicate that concerns about retirement income and the financial condition of Social Security extend across a large majority of likely voters, regardless of their preferences between the two major political parties.
Social Security provides monthly income to retired workers, eligible individuals with disabilities and qualifying surviving family members. Its financial outlook therefore affects not only current retirees but also workers who expect to rely on benefits in the future.
The survey arrives during a period of renewed attention to the program following the Social Security Administration’s announcement of its annual cost-of-living adjustment for 2027.
On Oct. 14, the agency announced a 3.6% benefit increase beginning in January, affecting nearly 72 million Social Security beneficiaries.
The adjustment is intended to help benefits keep pace with inflation, which has increased household expenses for food, housing, transportation, utilities and medical services.
The agency estimates that the average retired worker will receive approximately $75 more each month after the adjustment.
According to the Social Security Administration’s 2027 cost-of-living fact sheet, the average monthly benefit for retired workers will increase from $2,095 to $2,170.
That represents approximately $900 in additional benefits over a full year for a retiree receiving the estimated average increase.
Individual increases will vary according to existing benefit amounts, and actual deposits may also be affected by deductions such as Medicare premiums.
For older couples in which both spouses receive benefits, the agency projects that combined average monthly payments will rise from $3,238 to $3,355.
The average payment for disabled workers is expected to increase from $1,642 to $1,701, while benefits for aged widows and widowers living alone are projected to rise from $1,936 to $2,005.
Supplemental Security Income recipients will also receive the 3.6% adjustment.
Approximately 7.3 million people receiving SSI will see higher payments beginning Dec. 31, 2026. Some individuals receive both SSI and Social Security benefits, so the recipient populations overlap.
SSI differs from traditional Social Security retirement benefits because it provides financial assistance to qualifying people with limited income and resources, including older adults and individuals with disabilities.
For 2027, the maximum federal SSI payment will increase from $994 to $1,029 per month for an eligible individual and from $1,491 to $1,544 for an eligible couple.
The annual cost-of-living adjustment is calculated using changes in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, commonly known as CPI-W.
Federal law requires the Social Security Administration to compare the average CPI-W during the third quarter of the current year with the corresponding period used to establish the previous adjustment.
The resulting percentage determines the annual increase in benefits.
The 2027 adjustment follows a 2.8% increase in 2026 and a 2.5% increase in 2025.
Although the increases are designed to preserve beneficiaries’ purchasing power, retirees may experience inflation differently from the broader population measured by the index.
Older households frequently devote substantial portions of their budgets to health care, prescription medications, housing and other recurring expenses.
As a result, the financial effects of inflation can vary significantly depending on where retirees live, their medical needs and their sources of income beyond Social Security.
The program’s longer-term financial condition presents a separate challenge that has attracted attention from lawmakers and retirement policy analysts.
According to the 2026 Social Security Trustees Report, the trust fund responsible for paying retirement and survivor benefits is projected to exhaust its accumulated reserves during the fourth quarter of 2032.
The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund would then have sufficient continuing income to cover approximately 78% of scheduled benefits.
That represents a projected financing shortfall of 22% unless Congress adopts changes to the program.
The projection does not mean Social Security would stop making payments in 2032.
Payroll taxes and other ongoing revenue would continue flowing into the system, providing funds for a substantial portion of scheduled benefits.
However, the trustees warn that those resources would not be enough to pay the full amounts promised under current law once the retirement trust fund’s reserves are depleted.
The distinction is significant for workers approaching retirement and beneficiaries who depend heavily on their monthly payments.
A reduction in payable benefits could affect household budgets, retirement decisions and the ability of older Americans to cover essential expenses.
Social Security is financed primarily through payroll taxes paid by workers and employers, along with taxes on certain benefits and interest earned on trust fund reserves.
Employees and employers each pay a 6.2% Social Security tax on earnings up to an annual taxable maximum. Self-employed workers generally pay the combined 12.4% rate.
For 2027, the maximum amount of annual earnings subject to Social Security payroll taxes will increase to $192,300, compared with $184,500 in 2026.
The trustees attribute the program’s financial challenges to demographic and economic trends that affect the relationship between working taxpayers and benefit recipients.
Those factors include an aging population, lower birth rates, changes in immigration assumptions and longer periods of retirement.
The 2026 report also identifies changes in federal tax law that are expected to reduce future income from taxation of Social Security benefits.
The trustees projected a lower long-term fertility rate than previously assumed, reducing the expected number of future workers contributing payroll taxes.
They also lowered immigration assumptions, which affects projected workforce growth and taxable earnings.
Combined with changes in tax revenues, those adjustments contributed to a deterioration in the program’s long-term financial outlook.
The retirement trust fund’s projected depletion date moved forward by one quarter compared with the previous annual report.
The separate Disability Insurance Trust Fund has a stronger financial outlook.
According to the trustees, that fund is projected to remain capable of paying full scheduled disability benefits through at least 2100.
The retirement and disability trust funds are legally separate, although analysts frequently examine their combined finances to assess the sustainability of Social Security as a whole.
Under a hypothetical combination of the two funds, the trustees project that full scheduled benefits could be paid until the third quarter of 2034.
At that point, continuing income would cover approximately 83% of scheduled benefits.
Combining the two funds would require legislative action by Congress.
The projections underscore the importance of future policy decisions concerning Social Security’s financing structure.
Congress could consider changes involving payroll taxes, taxable earnings limits, benefit formulas, eligibility requirements or other provisions intended to improve long-term solvency.
Different approaches would distribute costs and benefits differently among workers, employers, retirees and future beneficiaries.
However, the Rasmussen survey does not establish which specific reforms respondents would support.
The poll measured the importance voters attach to Social Security and their preferences concerning which political party they trust to handle the program.
It did not determine whether respondents favored higher payroll taxes, changes to retirement eligibility, adjustments to benefit calculations or alternative financing proposals.
Similarly, the survey does not establish why individual voters prefer Democrats or Republicans on the issue.
Some respondents may be primarily concerned about protecting existing benefits, while others may prioritize long-term solvency, the program’s effect on federal finances or the taxes required to support it.
The findings also cannot determine how strongly Social Security will affect outcomes in individual House or Senate races.
Congressional elections are influenced by numerous factors, including local candidates, economic conditions, party affiliation, voter turnout and other policy concerns.
National polling results do not necessarily reflect voter preferences within individual congressional districts or states.
Nevertheless, the high percentage of respondents identifying Social Security as important suggests that the program will remain a subject of political discussion as the election approaches.
Both major parties face questions about how they intend to protect benefits for current recipients while addressing the projected financing shortfall.
For Democrats, the survey indicates a continued advantage in public trust, although the party’s lead has changed little since spring.
For Republicans, the results show that four in 10 likely voters prefer their approach to Social Security, leaving a substantial portion of the electorate divided or undecided.
The 13% of respondents who expressed uncertainty about which party they trust represents another significant group whose views are not established by the survey.
Rasmussen conducted the national telephone and online survey of 1,075 likely U.S. voters on Oct. 7-8 and Oct. 11, 2026.
The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
The survey was conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC, according to Rasmussen’s published methodology.
Its findings provide a snapshot of voter attitudes during the final weeks of the campaign rather than a prediction of election results.
The poll’s importance measures also reflect what respondents say influences their voting decisions, which may differ from the issues that ultimately determine their choices.
With Election Day approaching, Social Security presents voters with two distinct considerations: the immediate financial effects of next year’s benefit increase and the longer-term question of whether lawmakers will address the program’s projected shortfall.
The 3.6% adjustment will provide higher payments to millions of Americans beginning in January, while the retirement trust fund’s projected reserve depletion in 2032 remains unresolved.
Rasmussen’s findings show that those concerns are widely shared among likely voters, even as Democrats and Republicans remain divided over which party is better positioned to manage the program.
With 88% of respondents identifying Social Security as important to their congressional vote, retirement security stands among the issues receiving substantial attention as Americans prepare for the November midterms.
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