Brazilian Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro leads President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva by less than one percentage point in a new CNT/MDA survey, leaving the candidates statistically tied ahead of the Oct. 25 runoff election.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Brazil’s presidential election remains closely contested with nine days until voters return to the polls, according to a new national survey showing conservative Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro holding a narrow advantage over incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The latest figures place the candidates within the poll’s margin of error, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding the Oct. 25 runoff.
The CNT/MDA survey released Friday, Oct. 16 found that Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, received 46.8% support compared with 45.9% for Lula, a difference of just 0.9 percentage points.
When calculated using only valid votes, which exclude blank ballots, null votes and undecided respondents, Bolsonaro received 50.5% against Lula’s 49.5%. That calculation reflects the standard Brazil’s electoral authorities use to determine presidential election results.
The survey was conducted by the MDA research institute for the National Confederation of Transport, known as CNT, between Oct. 13 and Oct. 15. Researchers interviewed 2,014 voters nationwide, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points in either direction and a confidence level of 95%.
Because the difference between the candidates is considerably smaller than the margin of error, the findings constitute a statistical tie rather than a definitive indication that either candidate will win.
The poll was the first released by CNT/MDA following Brazil’s Oct. 4 presidential election, when Bolsonaro unexpectedly finished ahead of Lula and forced the contest into a second round.
Official first-round results showed Bolsonaro receiving 47.03% of valid votes, compared with 45.16% for Lula. Neither candidate secured the majority necessary to win outright, requiring voters to choose between the two finalists on Oct. 25.
The first-round outcome marked a significant development for Bolsonaro, whose campaign has sought to regain the presidency for the political movement associated with his father. Jair Bolsonaro served as Brazil’s president from 2019 until 2022, when he lost his reelection campaign to Lula.
The younger Bolsonaro represents the Liberal Party and has emphasized conservative positions on public security, economic management and government reform. Lula, representing the Workers’ Party, is seeking another presidential term while defending his administration’s social spending and economic policies.
The CNT/MDA findings align with several other surveys indicating a closely divided electorate.
A Datafolha poll published Thursday placed Bolsonaro at 47% and Lula at 45%, narrowing the senator’s advantage from four percentage points in the previous week’s survey.
A separate Quaest survey released Wednesday also showed Bolsonaro ahead, with 46% support compared with 44% for the incumbent president.
Although the surveys have produced different numerical results, each points to a competitive race in which relatively small changes in voter preferences or turnout could determine the outcome.
The latest CNT/MDA research also measured voter rejection of the two candidates. According to CNN Brasil’s examination of the findings, 48.8% of respondents said they would not vote for Lula, while 46.6% expressed the same position toward Bolsonaro.
The figures suggest both candidates face substantial resistance among portions of the electorate, complicating efforts to broaden their support beyond voters who backed them in the first round.
Bolsonaro’s campaign has focused on consolidating support among conservative voters and attracting those who supported other candidates on Oct. 4. He has also sought endorsements from prominent regional political figures, including Sao Paulo Gov. Tarcisio de Freitas.
Lula, meanwhile, has intensified campaign appearances and promoted measures intended to address household financial pressures, particularly among working-class and lower-income voters.
The president recently proposed expanding access to free public transportation on weekends, along with additional economic measures involving household debt, fuel costs and social assistance.
According to Reuters’ reporting on Lula’s latest campaign proposals, the administration has also advanced policies intended to reduce financial burdens on consumers and small businesses.
Those proposals have generated debate over their potential effects on government spending and Brazil’s fiscal position, while providing Lula with additional economic issues to emphasize during the final campaign period.
The presidential contest has also intensified disagreements over public security, constitutional reform and the future direction of Brazil’s institutions.
Bolsonaro has advocated changes involving the judiciary and federal government, while Lula has defended existing democratic institutions and emphasized social programs introduced or expanded during his administrations.
The differences reflect a broader political divide that has shaped Brazilian elections for years, particularly since Jair Bolsonaro’s victory in 2018 and Lula’s return to the presidency in 2023.
With both candidates now competing directly for the presidency, the remaining campaign period is expected to focus heavily on undecided voters and turnout.
The CNT/MDA survey found that 4.9% of respondents intended to cast blank or null ballots, while another 2.4% remained undecided. Those groups represent a potentially significant share of the electorate in a contest where the candidates are separated by less than one percentage point.
Brazil’s compulsory voting system applies to most citizens ages 18 through 70, although participation is optional for certain groups, including voters ages 16 and 17 and those older than 70.
Even with compulsory voting, abstention remains an important electoral consideration. More than 33 million eligible voters did not participate in the first round, making voter mobilization a priority for both campaigns.
The candidates are also scheduled to participate in another televised debate Oct. 18, providing an opportunity to address undecided voters before the final week of campaigning.
The CNT/MDA findings summarized by CNN Brasil reinforce the central uncertainty surrounding the runoff: Bolsonaro retains a numerical advantage in the latest survey, but the difference remains too small to establish a statistically meaningful lead.
Voters will determine the presidency Oct. 25, when the two candidates compete for a majority of valid ballots. With polling indicating a nearly even division, the outcome remains unresolved as both campaigns enter the final nine days of the election.
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