A renewed wave of attacks on commercial tankers near the Strait of Hormuz is threatening a recent rebound in Persian Gulf oil exports, even as producers rely on U.S.-protected shipping routes, emergency stockpiles and pipeline alternatives to keep crude moving.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom.
A sharp escalation in attacks on oil tankers around the Strait of Hormuz is threatening to disrupt a fragile recovery in Middle Eastern energy exports just as global inventories fall and governments draw more heavily on emergency reserves.
At least 11 vessels have been struck in the latest surge of attacks around the strategic waterway, according to maritime risk assessments cited in reporting on the crisis. Several incidents occurred over the weekend and Monday, when another tanker was hit by an unidentified projectile and caught fire in its engine room.
The renewed violence has raised concerns that recent gains in Persian Gulf oil shipments could prove difficult to sustain despite stepped-up U.S. protection and new methods for moving crude through the partially disrupted strait.
The New York Times reported that four attacks occurred over a two-day period as shipping traffic increased through the area.
United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said the master of one tanker reported Monday that the vessel had been struck by an unknown projectile at about 4:37 p.m. UTC. The impact sparked a fire in the engine room, which crew members were still attempting to control when the warning was issued. No casualties or environmental damage were initially reported.
Maritime risk firm Marisks has described the threat environment as increasingly unpredictable as more tankers attempt to resume operations in and around Hormuz. Reuters reported that at least seven tanker attacks were recorded during the first week of October alone, including strikes on the Kazimah III and Lipsi. Crew members aboard those vessels were reported safe.
One concern is that the increased volume of shipping itself may be providing more targets.
Dimitris Maniatis, founder of Marisks, said he believed Iran’s intensified attacks were intended to intimidate commercial operators and demonstrate control over the waterway.
“Their objective is to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through fear,” Maniatis said.
Maritime analysts have also warned that missiles and drones fired into heavily traveled areas may threaten vessels even if individual ships are not specifically selected in advance. Marisks said available evidence suggested some weapons could be launched into predetermined engagement zones and then acquire available radar targets.
That risk is particularly serious for oil tankers because even limited damage to propulsion systems, steering or engine rooms can disable a ship inside one of the world’s most important energy corridors.
The attacks have intensified just as oil exports from the region were recovering.
Middle Eastern crude shipments reached a seven-day average of approximately 18.3 million barrels per day at the end of September, according to Kpler data reported by Reuters. Exports exceeded prewar levels on 14 days during the month as Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers expanded shipments through Hormuz, the Red Sea and alternative transfer points.
Before the conflict began, the Strait of Hormuz routinely handled roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas supply. About 125 large commercial ships crossed the waterway daily, including tankers, bulk carriers, container ships and gas carriers.
Producers have since developed costly workarounds.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq have increasingly relied on smaller numbers of tankers willing to make higher-risk shuttle runs through the strait. Those vessels can transport crude to anchorage areas near Fujairah, where oil is transferred to other tankers for longer international voyages.
The system helped restore Gulf exports toward prewar levels, but the latest attacks could undermine it if shipowners, crews or insurers become unwilling to accept the danger.
Shipping costs have already risen sharply, while some vessels have disabled their tracking transponders while traveling through the region in an effort to reduce their visibility. Reuters reported that tanker rates on some Middle East-to-Asia routes have climbed dramatically as insurance and security expenses mount.
Saudi Arabia has also increased its reliance on land-based alternatives.
The kingdom’s East-West Pipeline, which connects eastern oil fields with the Red Sea port of Yanbu, has become increasingly important as an alternative to Hormuz. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said Tuesday that flows through the pipeline had reached 5.8 million barrels, with the route continuing to operate after being restored following earlier drone attacks.
The widening conflict in Yemen has added another layer of uncertainty.
Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a major offensive against the Iran-backed Houthis around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea coast. Government forces said they had pushed the Houthis from much of the territory they seized in September and reached the area around Mocha.
The Houthis, meanwhile, have claimed attacks against Saudi infrastructure, including energy facilities and airports.
The group said Saturday that missiles and drones struck an Aramco facility, and video reviewed in news reports showed a fire at a Saudi refinery. The Houthis later claimed additional attacks against targets including an Aramco refinery, though not all of those claims could be independently verified.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said Monday that the company’s operations remained resilient despite the strikes.
“Our system is intact,” he said. “We are meeting all of our customer requirements today.”
Nasser nevertheless delivered a stark warning about the broader condition of global energy supplies during remarks at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London.
“Few expected the near-closure of the world’s most critical energy artery to last so long, or its impact to spread so widely,” Nasser said.
He described the crisis as the most severe energy supply shock of his long career and warned that the remaining buffer in global petroleum inventories had become dangerously small.
“This is one of the worst crises of my career, and my career is long,” Nasser said.
In his formal remarks, Nasser said the world entered the conflict with almost 10 billion barrels of total oil stocks and has since lost nearly 3 billion barrels of gross supply. More than 1 billion barrels have been drawn from inventories to offset those losses, leaving less than 6 billion barrels of commercial stocks, most of which are not easily accessible.
“So the system is already straining,” Nasser said. “And, with precious little else the world can turn to, the supply resilience cushion is scarily thin.”
He warned that replenishing inventories while continuing to meet demand could take as long as two years.
“Until Hormuz fully re-opens and confidence returns, the crude reality is that pressure at both ends of the barrel will intensify,” Nasser said.
Global governments are attempting to ease that pressure by releasing more petroleum from emergency reserves.
The Group of Seven agreed Friday to make approximately 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel available over four months, with releases coordinated through the International Energy Agency. The action follows an earlier 400 million-barrel release announced by IEA members in March.
Analysts have warned that such releases can soften near-term shortages and price spikes but cannot replace sustained production and normal shipping through Hormuz.
Japan, which contributed about 80 million barrels to the earlier coordinated release and conducted another drawdown in May, said Monday that it had no immediate plans to release additional supplies from its national reserves.
“Japan has been releasing oil from reserves for some time now and there are no plans for a further release at this stage,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said.
Oil markets have responded to the competing pressures of stronger exports and persistent military risk.
Brent crude settled Monday at $100.32 a barrel after falling nearly $2, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate closed at $89.43. The decline reflected increased Middle Eastern exports and the planned G7 reserve release, though traders remained concerned about continued attacks and infrastructure damage.
Prices fell further Tuesday, with Brent trading below $100 as markets weighed higher regional shipments against continuing security threats.
The ability of Gulf producers to keep moving oil has so far prevented a more severe supply shock, but the underlying system has become far more complicated and expensive.
Tankers are taking longer routes, vessels are conducting ship-to-ship transfers outside the highest-risk areas and Saudi Arabia is sending more crude through pipelines to Red Sea terminals. At the same time, satellite tracking and shipping data that once improved transparency are increasingly being viewed as potential security vulnerabilities.
Nasser warned that openly available information about infrastructure and vessel movements can be exploited by attackers.
“Tools of transparency should not become ammunition for aggression,” he said.
The renewed tanker attacks underscore how quickly the recent export recovery could reverse.
Even with U.S. naval protection, alternative pipelines and emergency reserves providing temporary cushions, the global oil market remains heavily dependent on the continued movement of ships through and around Hormuz.
“We have clearly entered the new and far from normal times,” Nasser said.
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