President Donald Trump told supporters in Alabama that the more than six-month conflict with Iran could conclude shortly after the November midterms, while defending the U.S. military campaign, citing 18 American service-member deaths and arguing that Iran’s economy and nuclear infrastructure have been severely weakened.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
President Donald Trump said Friday that he expects the conflict with Iran to end “very soon,” possibly shortly after the Nov. 3 midterm elections, and predicted that oil prices would decline substantially once hostilities subside.
Speaking during a campaign rally in Mobile, Alabama, Trump repeatedly linked the duration of the war to energy costs and Iran’s deteriorating economic position as he defended the military campaign before Republican supporters.
“That war is going to be over soon. One way or the other, one way or the other. It’s going to end very soon and probably right after the midterms,” Trump said during the Mobile rally.
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The president also predicted that ending the conflict would remove a significant source of pressure from international energy markets.
“But as soon as we it’s going to end very soon, probably right after the election. But as soon as it does end, oil prices will come tumbling down,” Trump said.
Trump did not explain what specific development he expects to bring the conflict to a close after the election or whether he anticipates a negotiated settlement, Iranian concessions or additional U.S. military operations.
His comments came as his administration continues weighing its next steps after rejecting Iran’s latest diplomatic proposal and increasing the U.S. military presence in the Middle East. Trump had made a similar prediction earlier in the week, saying the United States would resolve the confrontation “very soon” and would prevail “one way or the other.”
Oil prices have remained elevated as the conflict has disrupted energy transportation and increased uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and other Middle Eastern shipping routes.
Brent crude was trading near $102 a barrel at the end of the week, while West Texas Intermediate was near $91. Prices declined Friday after the Group of Seven agreed to release 100 million barrels of oil and refined petroleum products from emergency reserves, but they remained sensitive to developments involving Iran and regional shipping.
Trump argued that the eventual end of hostilities could push energy prices significantly lower, potentially below levels recorded during his first term.
The president also focused heavily on Iran’s domestic economy, describing it as severely damaged by war, sanctions and inflation.
“Their economy is down the tubes. They have one thing they really do have. It’s called inflation. They have about 310% inflation. And we’ll see what happens,” Trump said.
Trump did not identify the source or measurement behind the 310% figure.
International Monetary Fund data show a substantially lower conventional measure of Iranian consumer inflation. The IMF projects average consumer-price inflation of approximately 68.9% for Iran in 2026 and an end-of-period rate of 48.7%, while forecasting a contraction in the Iranian economy. Those estimates still indicate severe economic stress but do not support a standard annual inflation rate of 310%.
Iran’s economy has also been pressured by sanctions, military damage and disruptions associated with the continuing conflict. The IMF’s latest projections show the Iranian economy contracting by more than 5% this year.
Trump also addressed the human cost of the conflict, telling the Alabama audience that 18 American military personnel had been killed since fighting began more than six months ago.
“Iran, we’ve lost 18 incredible people, 18 and we’ve been there for a little more than six months,” Trump said.
The publicly reported Pentagon casualty accounting has been complicated by the Defense Department’s decision to divide fatalities between Operation Epic Fury and a separate category designated “Overseas Operations.”
Those public categories together have reflected 18 U.S. military deaths associated with operations during the Iran conflict. The Pentagon initially listed the full total under the Iran operation before moving four deaths from renewed fighting into the separate overseas-operations classification.
There have also been questions about whether the public Pentagon figure captures every U.S. military death occurring in the region during the conflict.
The Washington Post reported in September, citing U.S. officials familiar with internal casualty data, that at least 22 military personnel had died in the Middle East since the war began, with another official putting the number at 23. The report noted that not all of the additional deaths were necessarily caused directly by Iranian attacks or combat operations.
Trump used his remarks Friday to answer criticism of earlier statements suggesting his principal objectives against Iran could be accomplished rapidly.
He said his earlier timeline referred specifically to preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon rather than ending the broader military confrontation.
“I did, but what I said is I would do they won’t have nuclear. And I did that in one night. The B-2 bombers took him out, but,” Trump said.
Trump was referring to the June 2025 U.S. attack known as Operation Midnight Hammer, in which seven B-2 Spirit stealth bombers struck Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz while a submarine fired Tomahawk cruise missiles against infrastructure at Isfahan.
The Pentagon said the operation involved 14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs and was designed to severely damage Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Defense officials subsequently said the strikes had set back portions of Iran’s nuclear program by years, although assessments of the long-term effect have remained subject to continuing intelligence review.
Trump argued Friday that the damage inflicted by the United States has left Iran facing an extended rebuilding process even if Washington were to stop military operations immediately.
“And we could leave tomorrow, and it would take them years to rebuild from what we did to them, because they just wouldn’t. They should have negotiated. They played their cards. They played their cards too tough,” Trump said.
The current U.S.-Iran conflict began Feb. 28, when U.S. forces launched Operation Epic Fury. By early April, U.S. Central Command said American forces had struck more than 13,000 targets and damaged or destroyed more than 155 Iranian vessels.
Fighting has continued through periods of attempted diplomacy and temporary reductions in hostilities.
The conflict has also had increasingly significant economic consequences outside the region. Disruptions to petroleum transportation have pushed fuel prices higher, while shortages of refined products, particularly diesel, have added to inflation concerns in the United States and Europe.
The G7’s decision this week to release 100 million barrels of emergency oil and fuel reserves was intended to increase supplies and ease market pressure. International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said oil prices had already fallen about $5 following the announcement.
Trump’s prediction that prices will fall further if the war ends reflects the substantial geopolitical premium that the Iran conflict has placed on energy markets, although future prices would also depend on global production, shipping capacity, refinery availability and demand.
The president has increasingly tied the war’s conclusion to his economic message heading into the midterms, where high gasoline and other household costs have become a major political issue.
At the Mobile rally, however, Trump portrayed both the economic and military pressures on Tehran as evidence that the confrontation is approaching an endpoint.
“It’s going to end very soon and probably right after the midterms,” Trump said.
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