A Rasmussen Reports/Our Republic survey found 19% of likely U.S. voters would support a hypothetical agreement dismantling Israel and replacing it with a Palestinian-led nation in exchange for ending the U.S.-Iran war and securing lower oil and gas prices, while 58% opposed the proposal.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Nearly one in five likely U.S. voters would support a hypothetical agreement that would end the war between the United States and Iran and lower American oil and gas prices in exchange for dismantling Israel and replacing it with a Palestinian-led nation, according to a new national survey.
The Rasmussen Reports/Our Republic survey found 19% of respondents supported the proposal, 58% opposed it and 22% were unsure.
The question asked respondents whether they would support “a proposal that would end the war in Iran and provide the United States with low oil and gas prices in exchange for completely dismantling the nation of Israel and replacing it with a new Palestinian-led nation.”
Because the question combines several outcomes — ending the war, lowering energy prices and eliminating Israel as an existing state — the results measure attitudes toward that entire hypothetical package rather than voter views on any one element in isolation.
The largest differences appeared among age groups.
Among voters ages 18 to 24, 46% said they would support the hypothetical agreement. Support increased to 60% among respondents ages 25 to 29.
Those figures were substantially higher than the 19% support measured across the full sample.
Justin Haskins, president and senior fellow at Our Republic, described the findings involving younger respondents as “even more striking” than the overall result.
Support also differed by party.
Twenty-four percent of Democratic respondents backed the proposal, compared with 16% of Republicans and 17% of voters unaffiliated with either major party.
Opposition reached 72% among Republicans, compared with 42% among Democrats and 61% among unaffiliated voters.
The results point to a substantial generational divide over Israel at a time when other polling has also shown younger Americans holding markedly different views of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict than older voters.
The Rasmussen/Our Republic survey separately questioned respondents about responsibility for the seven-month U.S.-Iran war.
Thirty-nine percent identified Iran’s government as primarily responsible.
Rasmussen’s published summary reported that 40% blamed the U.S. government, while the detailed results released by Our Republic listed that figure at 41%. Both releases reported that 10% blamed Israel’s government.
The partisan differences on that question were pronounced.
Seventy percent of Republicans said Iran was primarily responsible for the conflict.
Among Democrats, 66% blamed the United States and another 11% blamed Israel, according to the survey’s demographic findings.
The poll also asked respondents which side they hoped would ultimately win the war.
Seventy-four percent said they hoped the United States would prevail.
Six percent said they hoped Iran would win, 10% said they did not care which side won and 11% were unsure.
Those responses demonstrate that views about responsibility for beginning or continuing the conflict are not necessarily the same as preferences concerning its outcome. Although roughly four in 10 respondents blamed the U.S. government, nearly three-quarters said they wanted the United States to win.
The survey comes as Washington and Tehran continue indirect diplomatic efforts aimed at ending the conflict and restoring normal commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran recently submitted another proposal calling for a sequence of measures that could lead to a cease-fire and reopening of the waterway. President Donald Trump rejected Tehran’s original terms, although negotiations have continued through Qatari intermediaries.
Energy prices have remained a major consequence of the war.
The Strait of Hormuz was one of the world’s most important oil transit routes before the conflict, carrying roughly one-fifth of global petroleum supplies through the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman.
Disruptions to shipping and concern about supplies have pushed crude prices sharply higher during portions of the conflict, with Brent crude trading above $100 per barrel at several points.
Higher oil prices have also contributed to increased gasoline, diesel and transportation costs in the United States, adding another economic dimension to public debate over the war as the November midterm elections approach.
The wording of the Rasmussen/Our Republic question directly tied those economic concerns to a fundamental geopolitical change: ending Israel in its current form and establishing a Palestinian-led nation in its place.
Israel has existed as a sovereign state since 1948 and remains a close U.S. ally.
The poll did not specify the borders, government structure or political arrangements of the hypothetical Palestinian-led nation, nor did it ask respondents what would happen to Israel’s existing population under such an arrangement.
It therefore should not be interpreted as measuring support for any detailed peace proposal currently under negotiation.
Instead, respondents were presented with a stark hypothetical trade-off involving the existence of Israel, an end to the Iran war and lower energy prices.
The age breakdown was among the survey’s most notable findings.
Nearly half of respondents ages 18 to 24 selected “yes,” while three in five respondents ages 25 to 29 did so.
As with any poll subgroup, those age-specific figures are based on fewer respondents than the full national sample and consequently carry greater statistical uncertainty than the survey’s overall result.
The poll nevertheless adds another measure to a broader shift in American public attitudes toward Israel that has been especially visible among younger adults.
Partisan differences were also evident in attitudes toward the Iran conflict itself.
While Republicans overwhelmingly placed primary responsibility on Tehran, Democrats were much more likely to assign blame to Washington or Israel.
Despite those differences, support for an American victory crossed a much wider portion of the electorate, with 74% of all respondents saying they hoped the United States would win.
The Rasmussen Reports/Our Republic survey questioned 1,026 likely U.S. voters on Sept. 20.
The survey was conducted by telephone and online, with field work performed by Pulse Opinion Research.
The reported margin of sampling error for the full sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
That means the 19% overall figure represents an estimate rather than an exact measurement of all likely voters. The margin of error is larger for individual demographic and partisan subgroups.
The survey nevertheless found a clear majority opposed the hypothetical proposal.
At 58%, opposition was more than three times the 19% level of support nationally, while another 22% were not prepared to take either position.
The most significant departure from that national pattern came among voters under 30, particularly those ages 25 to 29, where the poll found majority support for the hypothetical trade-off.
Those generational differences, along with the sharp partisan divide over responsibility for the Iran war, illustrate how attitudes toward Israel and U.S. Middle East policy vary substantially across the electorate even as a large majority of respondents say they want the United States to prevail in the current conflict.
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