Political Advertising Projected to Reach Record $11.6 Billion in 2026 Midterms

Political advertising is projected to reach an unprecedented $11.6 billion during the 2026 election cycle, with increasingly expensive Senate contests and a surge in broadcast and connected-TV spending driving the total above both the 2022 midterms and 2024 presidential election.

By yourNEWS Media Newsroom

Political campaigns and outside groups are on track to spend more on advertising during the 2026 election cycle than in any previous U.S. election, with a projected $11.6 billion flowing into television, streaming platforms, digital media and other advertising as control of Congress hangs on a limited number of heavily contested races.

Advertising intelligence firm AdImpact projects that the final total will exceed the $8.9 billion spent during the 2022 midterm cycle and the $11.2 billion recorded during the 2024 presidential election. If the forecast holds, a midterm election without a presidential race at the top of the ballot will establish the new political advertising record.

Broadcast television remains the largest destination for that money despite the growing importance of streaming and online platforms.

AdImpact expects campaigns, political committees and outside groups to spend approximately $5.6 billion on broadcast television, representing 48% of all political advertising during the cycle.

Connected television, which includes advertising delivered through internet-connected televisions and streaming services, is projected to receive another $2.7 billion, or about 23% of total spending.

Digital advertising purchased through Facebook, Google, Snapchat and X is projected to reach $1.6 billion.

The sharpest upward pressure is coming from Senate contests.

AdImpact raised its projection for Senate advertising from $2.8 billion to $3.4 billion as more races developed into expensive contests. The revised estimate represents a 48% increase compared with Senate advertising during the 2022 election cycle and a 27% increase from 2024.

Ohio has experienced the largest increase from AdImpact’s original statewide spending forecast. The firm’s projection rose by $309 million to $749 million as the state hosts expensive Senate and gubernatorial contests.

The Ohio Senate race between Republican Sen. Jon Husted and Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown alone had attracted nearly $200 million in advertising by late September, according to a Washington Post analysis of AdImpact data. Brown accounted for $37.5 million, while Republican-aligned outside organizations have also committed substantial sums to the contest.

Texas is producing another major increase.

AdImpact raised its statewide projection by $288 million as spending accelerated around the Senate campaign between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico. The firm has projected approximately $440 million in advertising for that Senate contest alone by Election Day.

That would more than double the previous Texas Senate advertising record of slightly more than $210 million established during Republican Sen. Ted Cruz’s 2024 race against Democratic Rep. Colin Allred.

By mid-September, the Paxton and Talarico campaigns and organizations supporting them had collectively spent more than $153 million on advertising.

The distribution of that spending has differed considerably between the two candidates.

Talarico’s campaign had spent just under $50 million on general-election advertising by Sept. 17. Paxton’s campaign had spent approximately $465,000, while conservative super PACs supporting him had spent $98.5 million.

Of that outside spending, $62.4 million came from Texas PAC, an organization associated with the Senate Leadership Fund, while Trump-aligned MAGA Inc. accounted for another $11 million.

The scale of spending reflects both the cost of advertising across Texas’ numerous media markets and the national importance attached to the Senate seat.

Ohio and Texas are not alone.

Maine’s projected political advertising increased by $185 million from AdImpact’s initial forecast as its Senate contest generated additional spending. Together, Ohio, Texas and Maine account for some of the most significant upward revisions in the firm’s 2026 projections.

The picture is different in the House.

AdImpact lowered its House advertising projection from $2.2 billion to approximately $2 billion after redistricting altered the political landscape and made 28 congressional contests less competitive than previously expected.

That does not necessarily mean advertising will be evenly reduced across House races. Instead, the smaller number of closely contested districts could concentrate available money into the seats that remain competitive.

“Current spending is pacing well ahead of previous years,” AdImpact Senior Vice President John Link said, predicting that the remaining competitive seats will attract “more concentrated spending than ever.”

The firm’s broader forecast also reflects substantial spending below the congressional level. AdImpact projects a combined $3.7 billion for down-ballot and state legislative advertising, surpassing the previous $3.2 billion record set in 2022.

The changing media mix is another significant part of the 2026 cycle.

Broadcast television continues to command nearly half of political advertising dollars because campaigns can use local television markets to reach large numbers of voters in specific states and congressional districts.

Connected television, however, is taking a growing share as campaigns use streaming technology to reach narrower groups of viewers. AdImpact increased its connected-TV forecast from $2.5 billion to $2.7 billion, while its digital estimate also moved higher.

Those changes mean voters in the most contested states and districts are increasingly encountering political messaging across multiple platforms rather than primarily through traditional television commercials.

The concentration is particularly visible in the Senate.

With relatively few seats capable of affecting control of the chamber, campaigns, party committees and independent groups can direct hundreds of millions of dollars toward individual states rather than spreading their resources evenly across the country.

Texas illustrates the scale that dynamic can produce. The $440 million currently projected for its Senate race would represent more than twice the state’s previous record, while Ohio’s contest already leads Senate races in advertising money spent to date.

Whether the unprecedented spending changes election outcomes is less certain.

John Link, AdImpact’s senior vice president of data, said there is no simple relationship between the amount spent and victory at the polls.

“There’s always that question: is there a direct correlation to spend[ing] and election outcomes?” Link said. “[It’s] very difficult to define, but I think historically, as we see these records being set each cycle, people do believe in the power of advertising.”

What is already clear is the financial scale of the 2026 campaign.

With Election Day set for Nov. 3 and major advertising purchases continuing, AdImpact expects political advertisers to finish the cycle at $11.6 billion — approximately $400 million above the spending recorded during the presidential election two years ago and $2.7 billion above the previous midterm record.