Vice President JD Vance holds the largest share in current national polling of potential 2028 Republican candidates, but senators and other GOP figures are already visiting early-primary states, discussing possible campaigns and positioning themselves for a presidential contest that remains more than two years away.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom.
WASHINGTON — The 2028 Republican presidential campaign has not officially begun, but the competition to succeed President Donald Trump is already taking shape as several prominent Republicans make visits to early-primary states, draw contrasts with the administration or leave open the possibility of seeking the nomination.
Vice President JD Vance currently receives the largest share of support in national surveys testing possible Republican candidates, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio is second in the RealClearPolling average. Neither man has announced a presidential campaign.
The early maneuvering was detailed by The Washington Post, which reported that Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas, John Kennedy of Louisiana, Rand Paul of Kentucky and Rick Scott of Florida have recently traveled to or discussed presidential-nominating states even as Republicans remain focused on the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
The activity is unusually early. The first 2028 presidential primaries and caucuses are still well over a year away, and Republicans have not yet seen the political consequences of the 2026 midterms.
Vance himself has said he does not plan to make a decision until after this year’s elections.
“Usha and I will absolutely sit down and talk about what comes next for our family,” Vance told CBS in June, referring to his wife, Usha Vance. “The way I make decisions is I try not to make them until I absolutely must.”
Current polling nonetheless provides an early snapshot of Republican preferences.
The RealClearPolling average covering surveys conducted between July 19 and Sept. 21 puts Vance at 39.8%, Rubio at 24.3%, Donald Trump Jr. at 9%, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 7.3%, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 4%, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley at 3.5% and Cruz at 3%.
The individual surveys included in that average vary significantly. For example, an Echelon Insights poll conducted Sept. 17-21 had Vance at 38% and Rubio at 20%, while an Emerson survey conducted July 19-20 showed Vance at 39% and Rubio at 38%. Those early surveys test hypothetical fields and should not be treated as forecasts of an election more than two years away.
A separate Bowling Green State University-YouGov survey cited by The Washington Post found 44% of Republican likely midterm voters choosing Vance and 21% selecting Rubio. Cruz received 3% and Paul 1%.
Rubio presents one of the more unusual questions in the developing field.
Despite consistently receiving the second-largest share in national Republican polling, Rubio has repeatedly said he would support Vance if the vice president seeks the nomination.
“If JD runs for president, I think he’d be a phenomenal candidate,” Rubio said in a May NBC interview. “I’ll be the first person to sign up and support him. I think JD would do great.”
Some Republican donors and activists have nevertheless continued to discuss Rubio as a possible candidate.
Trump himself has contributed to the speculation by frequently mentioning both men when discussing the future of the Republican Party. Earlier this year, advisers said Trump had privately asked allies for their opinions about Vance and Rubio as possible successors.
Rubio’s position as secretary of state has also given him a high-profile role in the administration’s foreign policy, including the conflicts involving Iran, Ukraine and other international issues.
Vance, meanwhile, has been expanding his own political relationships.
As Republican National Committee finance chairman, he headlined a June fundraiser in Palo Alto, California, that raised approximately $4.2 million for the party. About two dozen attendees paid $250,000 each, according to Axios.
His relationships in the technology industry could also matter if he eventually campaigns.
Vance worked in venture capital before entering politics and has maintained ties with Silicon Valley figures. The Washington Post previously reported that Elon Musk communicates regularly with Vance and views him as a viable 2028 candidate, although Musk has not formally announced an endorsement or financial commitment to a Vance presidential campaign.
At the same time, some major Republican donors have expressed interest in alternatives.
Citadel founder Ken Griffin said at a private July gathering that he would support Rubio over Vance if both entered a 2028 Republican primary, according to Axios.
Cruz is among the Republicans taking the most visible steps that could precede another presidential campaign.
The Texas senator, who finished second to Trump in the 2016 Republican nomination contest, has made repeated trips to Iowa and has publicly discussed ideological disagreements within the Republican Party.
Cruz has declined to say whether he will run, but he told the “Pod Force One” podcast that Republicans will have to decide what kind of party they want after Trump.
“Are we a small-government, free-market conservative party, or are we a big-government nanny-state party?” Cruz said. “That’s a really big, fundamental divide about what we believe. … On foreign policy, are we an isolationist party? Do we want to just withdraw from the world? Or do we believe in American leadership?”
Cruz has also criticized aspects of Vance’s foreign-policy approach, particularly on Iran, and has argued for a more interventionist Republican foreign policy.
Those disagreements could become relevant if both eventually enter the same primary, but neither has announced a campaign.
Rand Paul has been more explicit about the possibility.
The Kentucky senator told The Washington Post that he considers himself “50-50” on running and will not decide before the midterms.
Paul said a campaign would emphasize opposition to tariffs, foreign military interventions and government ownership stakes in private corporations.
“There’s a struggle within the party between populism and free market,” Paul said. “The hope is that there will be a free-market candidate.”
Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy has also repeatedly declined to completely close the door.
Kennedy appeared at New Hampshire’s Politics & Eggs series in June, a traditional stop for politicians considering national campaigns.
Asked about 2028, Kennedy said, “You never say never.”
He elaborated during a subsequent CNN interview.
“I was asked when I was in New Hampshire campaigning for John Sununu, if I was going to run for president,” Kennedy said. “And I said, no, I’m planning to run for the United States Senate. But I said, look, I’m a politician. I don’t pretend to be otherwise, and I’ll never say never.”
“If a bunch of goobers run for president, and I think I could beat them, and I’d be a better president, yeah, I might do it,” Kennedy continued. “And I could catch a wild hare and do it. I’m not going to ever say I’m — you know, this is politics, but I don’t have any big plans.”
Kennedy has also traveled to Iowa and South Carolina, further fueling speculation, although those trips can also serve the immediate purpose of campaigning and fundraising for other Republican candidates.
He would enter any future national campaign with a sizable existing Senate campaign account.
Federal Election Commission data through June 30 showed Kennedy’s campaign with approximately $18.59 million in cash on hand and no reported debt.
Rick Scott has been more direct in saying he is not seeking the presidency.
The Florida senator traveled to Iowa and later headlined the New Hampshire Republican Party’s Amos Tuck Dinner in Concord, events that generated questions about his intentions.
Scott told reporters that he was not running in 2028.
He nonetheless joked about the relative attractions of elected office.
“The best job is to be the president,” Scott said. “If that’s not available, be the governor. If that’s not available, and you still have to do something, maybe be a U.S. senator.”
Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley has also been included in discussions of possible post-Trump Republican candidates, but he recently ruled out a 2028 run.
“No, I have no intention of doing so, period,” Hawley told the Washington Examiner on Sept. 15.
That statement represents a change from earlier speculation that had placed Hawley among possible candidates because of his national profile and disagreements with portions of Republican economic policy.
Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton has similarly appeared in discussions of a potential field, although he has not announced plans to run.
DeSantis remains included in many national polls despite his unsuccessful 2024 campaign.
That effort and the outside groups supporting it spent approximately $168 million, according to Federal Election Commission filings reviewed by The Associated Press. DeSantis finished second in the Iowa caucuses with roughly 21% of the vote, about 30 percentage points behind Trump, and ended his campaign six days later.
Whether he attempts another presidential campaign remains unresolved.
The person likely to exert the greatest influence over the eventual Republican field is Trump.
Publicly, the president has repeatedly declined to endorse a successor.
Asked Sept. 13 whether he was prepared to support Vance in 2028, Trump replied, “Well, it’s too early. I mean, it’s too early.”
“I think he’s terrific,” Trump continued. “We’ve got so many terrific people. We have, as they call, a very deep bench.”
Asked who could compete with Vance, Trump said: “I just think they’re all very good, and JD’s fantastic, and he did a very good job.”
Trump’s public position contrasts with comments he reportedly made privately this summer.
In August, The Washington Post reported that Trump told donors during an Oval Office meeting, “At the end of the day, we need to elect JD.”
The Post attributed the remark to two people familiar with the meeting who spoke anonymously because they were not authorized to discuss it. Some Trump advisers told the newspaper they believed Trump had moved toward Vance as his preferred successor, while six other allies cautioned that Trump had not necessarily made a final decision and could change his mind.
Trump has continued publicly praising Rubio as well.
That creates an unusual dynamic in which Vance receives the largest share in current national Republican polling and has reportedly received encouraging private comments from Trump, but the president has intentionally left the public succession question unsettled.
The 2026 midterms represent the next major political event before that question becomes more immediate.
Vance has spent much of this year campaigning and raising money for Republican candidates, including repeated trips to Iowa that his office has characterized as midterm activity.
During the Republican convention in Dallas earlier this month, attendees interrupted Vance with chants of “JD 48.”
“We gotta take care of business this November and then we’ll worry about what comes next,” Vance responded.
Other possible candidates are using the midterm cycle in similar ways, traveling on behalf of congressional candidates, speaking at state Republican events and building relationships with activists in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Those activities do not necessarily mean each politician will ultimately run.
They do, however, provide potential candidates an opportunity to establish organizations, cultivate donors and meet activists without formally launching presidential campaigns.
The Republican contest also contains substantive disagreements that extend beyond personalities.
Cruz and Paul have publicly identified differences over foreign policy, trade and the size of government. Rubio has generally taken a more traditional Republican approach to national security, while Vance has been more skeptical of foreign military intervention. Other Republicans have emphasized deficits, economic populism, immigration or cultural issues.
Those debates could shape the eventual nomination contest if multiple candidates run.
For now, the measurable picture is considerably simpler than the speculation.
Vance receives 39.8% in the current RealClearPolling national average, Rubio receives 24.3%, and every other potential candidate tested is in single digits.
That polling is preliminary, the candidate field is hypothetical and the first votes will not be cast until 2028.
Trump has not publicly endorsed anyone. Vance has not announced a campaign. Rubio says he would support Vance if he runs. Cruz, Paul and Kennedy have left varying degrees of room for campaigns of their own, while Scott and Hawley have said they do not intend to run.
The next major test for all of them comes Nov. 3, when Republicans face voters in the midterm elections — an event that will provide the party with new information about its coalition before the contest over who succeeds Trump begins in earnest.
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