A new Rasmussen Reports survey finds Democrats holding an 8-point advantage over Republicans among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot, with independent voters contributing significantly to the gap.

By yourNEWS Media Newsroom.

Democrats hold a 49%-41% advantage over Republicans among likely U.S. voters asked which party’s congressional candidate they would support if the midterm elections were held today, according to a new national Rasmussen Reports survey.

The 8-point gap represents an increase from Rasmussen’s previous poll, which showed Democrats ahead by 5 percentage points, 47%-42%. Another 4% of respondents in the latest survey said they would support a candidate from another party, while 5% were undecided, according to the Rasmussen Reports results.

The survey was conducted Sept. 10 and Sept. 13-16 among 1,746 likely voters. Rasmussen reported a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Field work was conducted by Pulse Opinion Research.

One of the largest differences emerged among voters who do not identify with either major political party.

Among unaffiliated voters, 48% said they would support the Democratic congressional candidate, compared with 30% who chose the Republican. Another 10% favored a third-party candidate, while 13% were undecided.

That 18-point Democratic advantage among independents was one of the principal factors behind the overall result, according to Rasmussen.

The poll also recorded a substantial difference between male and female voters.

Women favored Democratic candidates 53%-38%, a 15-point margin. Men were evenly divided, with 45% supporting Democrats and 45% Republicans.

Age produced another significant difference.

Among voters younger than 40, Democrats led 52%-33%.

Self-described moderates favored Democratic candidates 58%-28%, while Republicans retained substantial support among conservative voters, 72% of whom said they would vote for the GOP congressional candidate. Rasmussen found that 92% of self-described liberals supported Democratic candidates.

Party loyalty remained high but was not identical between the two major parties. Rasmussen reported that 88% of Democrats supported their party’s candidate while 85% of Republicans supported the Republican candidate.

The latest result continues a movement from Rasmussen’s previous survey, which showed a 47%-42% Democratic advantage. RealClearPolling tracks Rasmussen alongside other national generic congressional ballot surveys, although individual polls differ in methodology, sample composition and whether they survey adults, registered voters or likely voters.

Other September surveys have also measured a national Democratic advantage, though the size of the gap has varied.

A Reuters/Ipsos survey released earlier this month found 44% of respondents supporting Democrats for Congress and 37% supporting Republicans. Reuters reported that the 7-point margin was the largest Democratic advantage measured by that poll during Trump’s second term at that point.

A newer Reuters/Ipsos survey released Monday measured a 43%-35% Democratic advantage, while also finding that cost-of-living concerns continued to weigh heavily on voters. The survey questioned 1,277 U.S. adults, rather than a likely-voter sample, and carried a margin of error of approximately 3 percentage points.

The Marquette Law School Poll conducted Sept. 2-9 produced a larger Democratic margin among likely voters.

Marquette found 54% of likely voters supporting the Democratic candidate and 41% supporting the Republican candidate, while 4% chose neither. Among all registered voters, Democrats led 50%-42%.

Marquette surveyed 1,023 adults nationally. Its likely-voter results were based on 581 respondents and carried a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. The registered-voter sample included 864 respondents and carried a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 points.

Like Rasmussen, Marquette found Democratic strength among independent voters. Among registered voters who identified as independents without leaning toward either party, 41% supported the Democratic candidate and 10% supported the Republican, while 40% favored neither candidate.

The national generic ballot, however, is not a direct measurement of individual House races.

The House is elected through 435 separate congressional districts, meaning the national popular-vote preference does not automatically translate into the same margin in seats. Candidate quality, incumbency, district boundaries, local political conditions and turnout can produce results that differ from national polling.

Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority, and Democrats need a net gain of three seats in the Nov. 3 midterm elections to take control of the chamber.

Despite the national scale of the election, Reuters identified only about 50 of the 435 House contests as expected to be meaningfully competitive, concentrating the fight for the majority in a comparatively small number of districts across states including Arizona, California, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia and Wisconsin.

That makes national polling useful as a measure of the overall political environment but insufficient by itself to determine which party will control the House after Election Day.

Economic concerns have increasingly shaped many of those individual contests.

Recent polling and campaign reporting show affordability, inflation, fuel prices, housing costs and other household expenses occupying a prominent role in the midterm campaign. A September Marquette survey found inflation and the cost of living remained voters’ leading issue concern.

Associated Press reporting from competitive districts has similarly found candidates increasingly focused on household finances and economic conditions as voters contend with higher energy and borrowing costs. Republicans have emphasized tax policy and other ideological differences with Democrats, while Democrats have campaigned heavily on health care and affordability.

With roughly six weeks remaining before the Nov. 3 elections, the Rasmussen result adds another national measurement showing Democrats ahead on the generic congressional ballot.

The size of that advantage varies across polls, and the relatively small number of competitive House districts means the national numbers cannot be read as a direct projection of the chamber’s eventual partisan composition.

Original article