Western intelligence officials say Moscow appears to be preparing options for a new troop mobilization after Russia’s parliamentary elections, while European governments are increasing defenses against potential Russian hybrid operations and watching for a broader escalation of the war.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom.
European governments are preparing for the possibility that Russia could intensify military operations in Ukraine and hostile activity elsewhere in Europe after the country’s parliamentary election concludes Sunday, as Western intelligence officials report signs that Moscow is creating the administrative framework needed for another mobilization.
Russia began three days of voting Friday in its first parliamentary election since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. President Vladimir Putin has portrayed the vote as a demonstration of national unity and public support for Russian troops, while most candidates opposing the war have been excluded from the ballot.
Western intelligence officials told The Telegraph that Russian authorities have been taking administrative steps that could permit an additional military call-up following the election, although they have not concluded that Putin has made a final decision to proceed.
“What we are seeing is administrative preparations to make it possible to do it, if that was the decision,” an intelligence source told The Telegraph.
The concern centers on what officials have described as a possible “stealth mobilisation,” potentially allowing Moscow to add thousands of troops without immediately repeating the highly visible nationwide call-up ordered in 2022.
Putin has rejected speculation that another mobilization is planned. Earlier this month, he dismissed claims that Russia would conduct a post-election call-up as “nonsense,” describing the suggestion as an attempt to generate panic.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had raised the issue weeks earlier, saying in August that Kyiv believed Russia could seek to add hundreds of thousands of personnel after the parliamentary election. Ukrainian officials have cited the possibility of roughly 300,000 additional troops, although Moscow has denied such plans.
The possibility of another mobilization has gained attention as Russia continues to absorb heavy battlefield losses. Western estimates place total Russian casualties since the beginning of the full-scale invasion at approximately 1.5 million, including more than 500,000 troops killed. Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton, Britain’s chief of the defense staff, recently cited similar figures. Russia and Ukraine do not regularly publish independently verifiable casualty totals.
Western officials are also examining whether additional Russian manpower could eventually be positioned beyond the Ukrainian front, including along Russia’s borders with NATO members.
The concerns extend beyond conventional military forces.
European governments have reported increasing cyberattacks, sabotage attempts, drone activity and other operations they attribute to Russia as Moscow seeks to pressure countries supplying Ukraine. Russia has rejected European accusations that it is conducting a hybrid campaign against the continent.
French President Emmanuel Macron said Friday that the threat from such activity had intensified and ordered his government to prepare additional protections for critical infrastructure.
“In recent weeks, the threat – particularly the Russian hybrid threat – facing Europeans and France has intensified,” Macron said after meeting political leaders in Paris.
Macron directed officials to develop measures protecting critical infrastructure against drone and cyberattacks. He cited an attempted drone attack against Leipzig airport in Germany in August, which German authorities attributed to Moscow.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has separately warned that Russia could attempt missile strikes against countries supporting Ukraine and portray them as accidental incidents in an effort to test NATO’s response, according to The Telegraph.
Those warnings are emerging as NATO governments simultaneously confront uncertainty about the future size of the American military presence in Europe.
The Pentagon is conducting a six-month review of U.S. deployments on the continent. Reports have said options under consideration could involve withdrawing approximately 25,000 to 40,000 of the roughly 80,000 American troops currently stationed in Europe, along with changes involving aircraft, ships and other military assets. No final withdrawal decision has been announced.
U.S. Air Force Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, NATO’s supreme allied commander in Europe and head of U.S. European Command, participated Friday in a Pentagon briefing examining possible approaches to the American force posture.
Reuters reported that the review is expected to develop at least four sets of options for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Hegseth announced the review in June and said it would include consultations with Congress, which has imposed restrictions affecting how far the U.S. military presence can be reduced.
The parallel developments have heightened European attention to Russia’s intentions once the voting concludes.
Putin has explicitly presented the parliamentary election as a measure of support for the war, telling Russians before voting began that their participation would demonstrate that “millions of people stand behind our soldiers.” The governing United Russia party is expected to maintain its dominance in the State Duma.
Most candidates openly opposing the war were prevented from running. The liberal Yabloko party, which supports a ceasefire, was excluded from the nationwide party ballot following a Russian Supreme Court decision, although some individual candidates associated with the party remained eligible to compete in constituency races.
Analysts and critics of the Kremlin have argued that the election results could subsequently be presented as public authorization to continue or intensify the war. Putin has not announced such a plan and has specifically denied that the election will be followed by another mobilization.
The vote comes while Russian forces continue trying to seize the remainder of Ukraine’s Donetsk region.
U.S.-backed diplomatic efforts have not produced an agreement. Moscow continues to insist that any settlement leave Russia in control of the entire Donetsk region and has said it wants a comprehensive long-term settlement rather than a temporary ceasefire.
Zelenskyy has said Ukraine continues to see an opportunity for U.S. mediation and has worked with American and European officials on proposals that include a ceasefire and ideas concerning the Donbas region. Russia has questioned key elements of those proposals.
Against that unresolved diplomatic backdrop, European officials are watching the period immediately following the Sept. 18-20 parliamentary vote for signs that Russia will alter its military posture.
The available intelligence does not establish that a new mobilization or broader escalation has been ordered. Western officials instead say Moscow appears to be putting administrative mechanisms in place that would allow the Kremlin to move more quickly if Putin chooses to expand Russia’s armed forces, while European governments are strengthening defenses against the cyberattacks, sabotage and other hybrid activity they say has already increased across the continent.
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