Sweden has recorded steep declines in shootings, gang-related killings and asylum applications during Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s term, but voters will decide Sunday whether his conservative-led government remains in power to continue its crime and immigration policies.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom.
Sweden is heading into Sunday’s national election after nearly four years in which shootings and deadly gang violence fell sharply under Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s conservative-led government, even as polling indicates the contest for control of parliament remains close.
A Financial Times report found that shootings have declined by approximately 80% since Kristersson’s government took office in 2022. Sweden recorded 391 shootings and 62 deaths that year, compared with 48 shootings and 12 deaths through Aug. 6 this year. Kristersson has separately said deadly gang violence has declined by 75% over the same period.
The Financial Times described the scale of Sweden’s earlier violence by stating it was “hard to exaggerate how bad the problem was in 2022,” when “scarcely a day went by without a shooting or bombing in the previously peaceful country.”
The newspaper characterized the reduction in gang violence as a politically notable development, writing that it “represents a rare example in Europe of mainstream parties — albeit aided by nationalists — prevailing on an issue that right-wing populists had invoked to rally support, with results that seemed barely conceivable at the start of the government’s term.”
Kristersson’s government has pursued a combination of tougher criminal penalties, additional police funding, expanded wiretapping authority and changes intended to prevent organized criminal groups from recruiting young people. Among those measures was a reduction in the age of criminal responsibility to 14, aimed in part at disrupting gangs’ use of teenagers in violent conflicts.
The government has simultaneously tightened immigration policy. Measures have included higher wage requirements, stricter standards for immigrants entering under highly qualified worker categories, tougher family-reunification rules and additional funding intended to encourage voluntary departure from Sweden.
The scale of asylum migration has fallen dramatically from levels recorded during the 2015 European migrant crisis. According to figures cited from the Swedish Migration Agency, Sweden is projected to receive approximately 4,200 asylum applications this year. In 2015, roughly 160,000 applications were filed as Sweden became one of Europe’s principal destinations for migrants arriving from the Middle East and Africa.
Kristersson said Monday that the declines in crime followed policies his government was willing to pursue despite criticism.
“None of this would have been possible if we had backed down every time we were criticized for ‘going too far’ or moving too fast.’ Achieving new results requires entirely new approaches. That is what we have done, and now we are seeing the results,” Kristersson said.
“Now that almost four years have passed, much of the clean-up work has been done. But we are not finished until we have finally defeated the gangs and restored a sense of security to everyone in Sweden. On Sunday, it will be decided whether we get the chance to finish the job. We must hand over a safe and secure country to our children and grandchildren.”
The election nevertheless remains competitive despite the government’s emphasis on falling crime.
A Norvus poll published this week placed the four principal left-wing opposition parties at 50.3% support, compared with 47.9% for parties supporting the conservative government.
That margin was substantially narrower than polling a month earlier that placed the left bloc about 10 percentage points ahead.
The latest survey also showed the Liberals, a coalition partner in Kristersson’s government, reaching the 4% threshold required to secure representation in the Riksdag. Whether smaller parties clear that threshold could significantly affect the distribution of parliamentary seats after Sunday’s vote.
Mattias Karlsson, a Sweden Democrats member of parliament, warned that declining violence could itself reduce voters’ sense of urgency over the policies credited by the government with addressing gang crime. He compared the possibility to a “Winston Churchill effect,” in which voters conclude a major crisis has passed and then choose different political leadership.
The election will therefore take place against two competing realities: Sweden has experienced a substantial decline in shootings and gang killings during Kristersson’s term, while opposition parties continue to hold a narrow collective polling advantage heading into the vote.
Kristersson is asking voters for another term to continue the government’s approach to organized crime, policing and immigration, arguing that the progress made since 2022 remains incomplete.
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