Republican consumer sentiment has fallen sharply since February as persistent inflation, higher gasoline prices and concerns about household purchasing power temper economic optimism less than two months before the midterm elections.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Republican confidence in the U.S. economy has deteriorated sharply over the past six months, with consumer sentiment among members of President Donald Trump’s party falling 15.1 points since February as inflation and elevated everyday expenses continue to weigh on household finances.
Republican sentiment declined from 97.1 in February to 82 in August, according to University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers data, a drop that stands out because members of the party controlling the White House typically become more optimistic about economic conditions.
Democratic sentiment moved comparatively little over the same period, slipping 1.6 points from 41.8 to 40.2.
The Republican reading is now lower than at any point during either Trump presidency except December 2020, according to Axios, which reported Saturday that the six-month decline has occurred at a pace not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Republicans nevertheless remain substantially more optimistic about the economy than Democrats. What makes the current movement unusual is the direction and speed of the change among voters aligned with the president’s party.
“The vast majority of the time, Republicans and Democrats move broadly in parallel,” Joanne Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers, told Axios.
Instead, the partisan groups have moved differently during a period in which Republicans began the year with considerably higher expectations for the economy.
“Republicans were expecting very positive results from administration policies” on the economy, including tariffs, Hsu said.
Those expectations have encountered persistent price pressures that remain readily visible to consumers.
“But they haven’t seen a slowdown in inflation, let alone” the decline in prices Trump had promised, Hsu said.
Consumer prices in July were 3.4% higher than they had been one year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Food prices increased 3% over the 12 months ending in July, while groceries consumed at home were 2.7% more expensive.
Electricity prices rose 4.2%.
Gasoline recorded a considerably larger increase, climbing 24.6% from July 2025.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures price measure showed another indication of persistent inflation, with prices rising 3.7% from a year earlier in July.
Those figures help explain why household purchasing power has remained central to consumer attitudes even as the administration points to major investments and broader economic initiatives intended to produce longer-term growth.
Only 8% of consumers surveyed by the University of Michigan expect their incomes to rise faster than inflation during the coming year.
That leaves an overwhelming majority anticipating that price increases will either match or exceed their income gains, limiting how much improvement households expect to experience in real purchasing power.
For consumers, that calculation can matter more immediately than broader investment announcements or projections of future economic growth.
The Trump administration has placed considerable emphasis on tariffs designed to encourage domestic manufacturing, large investments in artificial intelligence and data centers, expanded energy opportunities involving Venezuela and other measures intended to reshape production and investment in the United States.
Those policies could affect investment, productivity, industrial capacity and economic growth over longer periods.
Their potential long-term effects, however, are separate from the prices households are currently encountering when paying for food, gasoline, electricity and other necessities.
The administration also recently announced an agreement giving the United States significant economic interests involving Venezuela’s large oil reserves, presenting expanded production as a potential way to increase energy supplies and ultimately reduce gasoline prices.
Because the arrangement is new, any effect on fuel production or American retail gasoline prices has yet to appear broadly in household inflation figures.
Energy costs have become especially important as the war with Iran creates additional uncertainty in global markets.
University of Michigan researchers found that consumers expect gasoline prices to remain elevated in both the short and longer term amid uncertainty surrounding the conflict.
Hsu told Axios that Republicans broadly continue to expect gasoline prices to decline once the war ends.
For the time being, however, the 24.6% year-over-year increase in gasoline prices provides consumers with an immediate and highly visible measure of inflation.
The administration’s push to expand artificial intelligence infrastructure presents a similar difference between longer-term economic objectives and short-term household conditions.
Large-scale AI and data-center construction could increase investment and potentially enhance productivity, but those benefits do not necessarily translate immediately into lower grocery, utility or fuel bills.
That divide between future expectations and current household costs appears to be contributing to the changing sentiment figures.
At the same time, other economic indicators suggest consumers have not withdrawn from the economy despite their declining confidence.
Disposable personal income increased 0.5% in July, while inflation-adjusted disposable income rose 0.4%.
Consumer spending increased 0.2% during the month.
After adjusting for inflation, however, real consumer spending was essentially unchanged.
The White House argues that those underlying economic indicators provide a more reliable measure of consumer conditions than sentiment surveys.
“The hard data of consumer spending and retail sales have, for months, consistently reinforced that the American consumer remains resilient thanks to the President’s proven economic agenda of tax cuts and deregulation,” White House spokesman Kush Desai told Axios.
“As the Administration’s economic policies, trade deals, and trillions in investments continue to materialize, Americans can count on more progress to come,” Desai added.
The distinction between consumer behavior and consumer sentiment is important.
Households can continue working and spending while simultaneously feeling less confident about their financial prospects, particularly when prices rise faster than they expect their incomes to grow.
The University of Michigan results measure those attitudes rather than economic output itself.
For Republicans, the change has been particularly pronounced because sentiment began 2026 at a comparatively high level.
A reading of 97.1 in February reflected strong expectations among Republican consumers that the administration’s economic program would improve conditions.
By August, the index had fallen to 82.
Democratic sentiment, already substantially lower, declined only modestly from 41.8 to 40.2 during the same period.
That divergence places additional attention on inflation as the November congressional elections approach.
Trump and Republican candidates can point to rising disposable income, continued consumer spending, investment commitments and administration policies intended to expand domestic production.
At the same time, voters are encountering consumer prices 3.4% above last year’s level, with food, electricity and particularly gasoline all more expensive.
The University of Michigan finding that only 8% of consumers expect income growth to beat inflation underscores the tension between those two economic pictures.
The political implications will depend in part on whether households begin seeing improvements in purchasing power before voting concludes.
Republicans remain far more positive about the economy than Democrats according to the survey, meaning the decline has not erased the partisan divide in economic perceptions.
But the 15.1-point fall since February shows that economic dissatisfaction is no longer confined principally to voters outside the president’s party.
With the midterm elections approaching, the administration faces the challenge of translating its investment, trade, energy and domestic-production initiatives into improvements that consumers can recognize in their own finances.
For many households, the measure of economic progress remains straightforward: whether wages and income can keep pace with what they pay at the grocery store, at the gas pump and on their monthly utility bills.
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