Ukrainian officials say intelligence indicates Moscow has ordered preparations for possible ground offensives against Kyiv and Chernihiv, although they have not yet observed Russian forces massing at the scale required for an attack.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Ukraine says it has verified intelligence indicating that Russian military commanders have been ordered to prepare plans for possible new ground offensives targeting Kyiv and Chernihiv, raising concerns that Moscow could again attempt to threaten the Ukrainian capital as the war moves toward its fifth year.
Pavlo Palisa, deputy head of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office, said the Kremlin has instructed Russia’s military leadership to plan and prepare offensive operations against the two northern Ukrainian cities.
Ukrainian intelligence has received and confirmed information concerning the preparations, Palisa said.
Despite the warning, Ukrainian officials have not observed Russian troops assembling in numbers sufficient to begin such an operation. The distinction suggests that Kyiv currently views the threat as a matter of Russian military planning and preparation rather than an imminent large-scale assault.
Ukraine’s priority is to stop Moscow from reaching the point at which such an attack becomes feasible.
Palisa said the immediate objective is to “prevent the creation of conditions for the Russians to be able to launch any offensive actions at all.”
The intelligence assessment has renewed attention on northern Ukraine more than four years after Russia’s initial attempt to capture Kyiv failed during the opening phase of the full-scale invasion.
Russian troops advanced toward the capital from Belarus and other directions after the invasion began in February 2022, seeking to establish control around Kyiv in the first weeks of the war.
Ukrainian forces resisted the advance, and the Russian offensive ultimately collapsed. Moscow subsequently withdrew its troops from northern Ukraine and shifted much of its combat effort toward other regions.
The possibility of another northern offensive emerges as Ukraine also sees signs that Russia may be moving toward a significant mobilization effort. Battlefield losses are now reported to be exceeding the number of new troops Russia is recruiting, increasing pressure on Moscow to replenish its forces as the conflict continues.
The concern extends beyond Ukraine.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned Saturday of growing Russian escalation following talks with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.
“Escalation from Russia’s side is progressing,” Tusk said.
The Polish leader said Ukraine needs additional air support urgently and warned NATO governments that the coming months could be particularly consequential.
“The next six months will be decisive, and we must be prepared as Poland and NATO for various scenarios,” Tusk said.
At the same time, Russia has intensified its aerial campaign against Kyiv even as no large-scale force buildup for a renewed ground assault has yet been detected.
Zelenskyy said Saturday that the Ukrainian capital is enduring a “virtually nonstop attack from jet-powered drones.”
Ukraine has increasingly relied on interceptor systems to counter Russian drone attacks, including strikes involving Iranian-designed Shahed attack drones.
Zelenskyy acknowledged that Ukraine must “significantly accelerate” production of the interceptors needed to destroy them.
The expanding drone war has also allowed Ukraine to carry attacks far beyond the front lines.
Ukrainian forces have repeatedly used their growing long-range drone arsenal to strike infrastructure and strategic targets deep inside Russian territory. Those attacks have disrupted parts of Russia’s fuel system and contributed to widespread interruptions in fuel supplies.
The latest Ukrainian warning therefore comes as both countries expand long-range attacks while Russia considers how to sustain manpower for continued ground operations.
Ukraine’s claim that Moscow is developing renewed plans for Kyiv and Chernihiv does not mean such an offensive has begun. Officials have specifically said they have not detected the concentration of Russian forces that would be necessary to carry one out.
Still, the intelligence has prompted Kyiv to focus on preventing Russia from creating those battlefield conditions in the first place.
The prospect of renewed pressure on northern Ukraine also carries particular significance because of Russia’s unsuccessful 2022 campaign against Kyiv. Moscow’s forces approached the capital during the first phase of the invasion but were unable to overcome Ukrainian resistance and eventually retreated.
Now, with the conflict approaching another year and Ukraine warning of preparations for a fresh Russian ground offensive, officials in Kyiv and NATO member Poland are signaling that the next several months could determine whether Moscow is able to broaden the war’s ground campaign once again.
Original article
Comments