Two Atlantic Disturbances Could Develop Into Tropical Systems This Week

BY MIRABEL ODETA

Two areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic Ocean could develop into tropical systems this week as forecasters monitor conditions across the basin.

One of the disturbances is located in the central subtropical Atlantic, where an area of low pressure several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda is producing showers and thunderstorms.

Forecasters said the low could become better organized over the next several days. If development occurs, the system could briefly strengthen into a tropical depression or tropical storm before moving away from the region.

The system is expected to track generally northward and then north-northeastward during the next few days, keeping it well northeast of Bermuda.

The system currently has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm during the next 48 hours. Its chance of formation over the next seven days is also estimated at 50%.

Forecasters are also watching a separate tropical wave that is expected to move off the west coast of Africa.

An area of low pressure could form in association with the wave as it moves westward across the Atlantic. Conditions are expected to be only marginally favorable for development initially, but forecasters said the system could become organized enough to form a tropical depression by the middle or latter part of the week.

The African tropical wave is expected to move westward at roughly 15 to 20 mph as it crosses the Atlantic.

Its chance of development during the next 48 hours is currently estimated at 10%, while the probability of formation over the next seven days is 50%.

Neither system was an immediate threat to land based on its expected track, but forecasters will continue monitoring both disturbances as conditions evolve.

Atlantic tropical systems can strengthen or weaken quickly, particularly when environmental conditions change. Forecasters typically monitor factors including thunderstorms, wind shear, ocean temperatures and the organization of the circulation before determining whether a disturbance is likely to become a named tropical system.

Residents across the Atlantic and Caribbean regions are encouraged to continue monitoring official forecasts throughout the week, particularly during the peak portion of hurricane season when tropical activity can increase rapidly.

The two disturbances remain under observation, and their chances of development could change as they move across the Atlantic.