Secretary of State Marco Rubio performed slightly better than Vice President JD Vance against most of the Democratic contenders tested in a new national survey of potential 2028 presidential matchups, although neither Republican has announced a campaign.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Secretary of State Marco Rubio posted somewhat stronger results than Vice President JD Vance across most of a series of hypothetical 2028 presidential contests, according to a new national poll examining how the two prominent Republicans might fare against several possible Democratic nominees.
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey tested Rubio and Vance separately against former Vice President Kamala Harris, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.
Rubio performed better than Vance in four of the five matchups, although significant numbers of voters remained undecided and the 2028 election is still more than two years away.
The largest difference between the two Republicans emerged in contests against Harris.
Harris led Vance 49% to 45%, giving her a 4-point advantage. When matched against Rubio, however, the result reversed, with Rubio leading Harris by 5 percentage points.
Rubio also performed more strongly than Vance against Newsom.
The California governor held a 5-point lead over Vance, while his advantage over Rubio narrowed to 2 points.
A similar pattern appeared in the matchup involving Ossoff.
The Georgia Democrat led Vance by 5 points but was ahead of Rubio by 3 points.
Buttigieg was the only Democratic candidate tested who produced the same margin against both Republicans. The former transportation secretary led Vance by 5 points and also held a 5-point advantage over Rubio.
Ocasio-Cortez was the only Democrat in the survey who trailed both potential Republican nominees.
Vance led Ocasio-Cortez by 2 points, while Rubio held a 5-point advantage over the New York congresswoman.
The results remain highly preliminary. At least 6% of likely voters were undecided in every hypothetical matchup, leaving enough uncommitted support to alter the outcome of each contest.
The survey included 1,000 likely voters and was conducted Aug. 16-17. Emerson College Polling reported a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Neither Rubio nor Vance has declared a candidacy for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.
Both men, however, have emerged as prominent potential successors to President Donald Trump within the Republican Party and have remained closely matched in early surveys of GOP primary voters.
A July Emerson national poll found Republican primary voters almost evenly divided between the two, with Vance receiving 39% support and Rubio at 38%.
The same close division appeared two months earlier.
A May Emerson survey placed Vance at 36% among Republican primary voters and Rubio at 35%, again showing only a single percentage point separating them.
Rubio has previous presidential campaign experience, having sought the Republican nomination in 2016.
Despite being repeatedly mentioned as a possible 2028 contender, Rubio has indicated that he would defer to Vance if the vice president decides to seek the nomination.
Vance has not made a decision public. He has said he intends to discuss the possibility of a presidential campaign with his wife after the November midterm elections.
Trump has publicly praised both men and has previously suggested that a ticket involving Vance and Rubio would make “a great team.”
The August survey therefore provides an early snapshot rather than a forecast of the eventual presidential contest. Candidate fields for both parties remain unsettled, neither Vance nor Rubio has entered the race, and a substantial share of voters in every tested matchup has yet to choose a candidate.
Still, the results show Rubio holding a modest advantage over Vance in most of the hypothetical general-election scenarios tested while the two remain virtually tied among Republican primary voters in recent Emerson polling.
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