Russian Oil Shipments From Western Ports Fall 15% as Black Sea Disruptions Hit Exports

By COMFORT OGBONNA

Oil shipments from Russia’s western ports fell to about 2.3 million barrels per day during the first half of August, roughly 15% below the country’s initial loading plan, as disruptions at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk delayed cargoes and reduced export volumes.

The decline highlights growing challenges for Moscow as attacks on Russian energy infrastructure disrupt facilities that are important to the country’s oil exports and government revenues.

Russia had initially planned to ship about 2.7 million barrels per day from its western ports in August. The figure included exports from the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga as well as Novorossiysk on the Black Sea.

However, exports from Novorossiysk have fallen sharply. Shipments of Russian Urals crude and Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade are running at about 400,000 barrels per day, compared with between 800,000 and 1 million barrels per day in June and July.

The disruption has also caused significant delays in scheduled cargoes. Some shipments originally planned for late July have only sailed in recent days, leaving loading schedules more than two weeks behind their original timetable.

The delays come as the security situation around Russia’s Black Sea oil infrastructure remains uncertain. Attacks on energy facilities and concerns about the safety of oil cargoes have complicated efforts to maintain normal export operations.

The disruptions are particularly significant because Russia relies heavily on oil exports to generate government revenue and support its broader economy. Any sustained reduction in shipments could affect the country’s income from energy sales, depending on how long the interruptions last and whether Russia can redirect cargoes through alternative routes.

Russia has also been adjusting the flow of Kazakhstan’s crude exports in response to the changing conditions. Some Kazakh oil shipments that would normally move through the Baltic port of Ust-Luga have been rerouted to Novorossiysk.

The change is intended to create additional capacity at Ust-Luga for Russian crude exports while allowing Kazakhstan to continue using the Black Sea route for its oil shipments.

The strategy depends in part on the continued safety of non-Russian cargoes in the Black Sea. Ukraine has indicated that it does not intend to target non-Russian oil cargoes, reducing the perceived risk for Kazakhstan’s shipments.

The rerouting could provide Russia with greater flexibility to maintain its own exports from the Baltic region while accommodating Kazakhstan’s crude through the Black Sea.

The situation illustrates the growing complexity of oil logistics in the region as Russia, Kazakhstan and other market participants adjust transportation routes in response to security risks.

For global oil markets, the scale and duration of the disruption will be important. Russia remains one of the world’s largest oil producers and exporters, meaning prolonged interruptions at major ports could tighten available supplies and potentially influence international crude prices.

For now, the decline in western-port shipments appears concentrated around the disruptions affecting Novorossiysk. Traders and market participants will be watching upcoming loading schedules closely for signs that exports are returning toward planned levels or that delays are becoming more persistent.

Russia’s ability to redirect crude through other ports and adjust schedules will also determine how much of the lost volume can ultimately be recovered.

The developments underscore the vulnerability of major oil-export infrastructure to geopolitical and security disruptions and the continuing efforts by producers and trading partners to keep crude flowing despite those challenges.