Redfin estimated that U.S. home sellers outnumbered buyers by 51.3% in July as elevated mortgage rates and near-record home prices pushed the number of active buyers to its lowest level on record.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
The U.S. housing market shifted further in buyers’ favor in July as the number of active homebuyers fell to a record low, leaving sellers increasingly dependent on a smaller pool of people able and willing to purchase homes.
Real estate brokerage Redfin estimated that 966,752 buyers were active in the market during July, a 2.5% decline from June.
At the same time, approximately 1.46 million sellers were competing for those buyers.
That left 51.3% more sellers than buyers nationwide, up from a 47.9% gap in June and just below the record 51.8% imbalance reached in December 2025.
Rather than being driven by a flood of new listings, the widening gap primarily reflected weakening buyer demand.
Redfin estimated that the number of sellers declined 0.3% from June and reached its lowest level in a year. Buyer numbers, however, fell at a substantially faster rate.
“Buyers are dropping out faster than sellers, giving the buyers who remain more options and more negotiating power,” Redfin senior economist Asad Khan said.
The imbalance has spread across most of the largest U.S. metropolitan housing markets.
Redfin classifies a market as a buyer’s market when sellers outnumber buyers by more than 10%.
Under that definition, 39 of the 49 major metropolitan areas included in the company’s analysis qualified as buyer’s markets in July.
The imbalance also became more pronounced during the month. Of those 39 buyer’s markets, 34 recorded a larger surplus of sellers in July than they had in June.
Miami had the largest gap, with an estimated 154% more sellers than buyers.
Nashville followed closely at 151%, while Houston had 130% more sellers than buyers. San Antonio recorded a 116% surplus and Austin had 112% more sellers than prospective purchasers.
Several of those markets experienced significant construction and investment during the pandemic-era housing boom.
Miami and Nashville both saw substantial new development and investor activity during that period, leaving an expanded housing supply now competing for demand in a slower market.
Redfin said Miami faces additional affordability pressures from increasing insurance costs, higher homeowners association fees and climate-related risks.
Texas markets including Houston, San Antonio and Austin have meanwhile maintained some of the country’s most active homebuilding pipelines.
Newly constructed properties continue entering those markets even as demand from buyers has weakened.
The resulting increase in negotiating power does not necessarily mean homes have become affordable.
Many prospective purchasers remain unable or unwilling to enter the market because borrowing costs remain elevated and home prices are still near historical highs.
“Uncertainty around whether the Fed will hike rates—and this summer’s rising mortgage rates—are keeping many would-be buyers on the sidelines,” Khan said.
“That makes the stretch between now and Labor Day a potential sweet spot for people who need to move: Buyers have leverage, while motivated sellers may be willing to negotiate before the early-fall rush brings some buyers back to the market.”
Mortgage rates increased through much of July.
The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.43% at the beginning of July before climbing to 6.66% for the week ending July 30, according to Freddie Mac.
By Aug. 13, the average rate stood at 6.67%.
Higher financing costs continue to combine with elevated property values to limit the number of households capable of buying.
The median price of an existing U.S. home reached $434,100 in July, according to the National Association of Realtors.
That represented a 2% increase from the same month a year earlier and marked the 37th consecutive month in which existing-home prices rose on a year-over-year basis.
The July median remained below the all-time high of $442,800 recorded in June but continued to place home prices near record territory.
Sales activity weakened at the same time.
Existing-home sales fell 1.7% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million in July.
Compared with July of the previous year, however, sales remained 0.7% higher.
The combination of weak demand and constrained affordability has created an unusual housing environment in which buyers who remain in the market possess greater bargaining power even though many households still cannot afford to purchase.
For sellers, the widening imbalance means increased competition for available buyers and potentially greater pressure to negotiate over price, closing costs or other terms.
For prospective buyers who can manage current prices and mortgage rates, Redfin said the market offers a broader selection of properties and greater leverage than during periods when buyers substantially outnumbered sellers.
The larger challenge remains bringing sidelined buyers back into the market.
With nearly 1.46 million sellers competing for fewer than 1 million active buyers in July, the latest Redfin estimates show that the housing market’s shift toward buyers is being driven less by rapidly expanding inventory than by a continuing retreat in demand.
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