Vice President JD Vance remains the early Republican presidential frontrunner in New Hampshire, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio has sharply narrowed the gap as his national profile and foreign policy responsibilities expand.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has moved within 10 points of Vice President JD Vance among likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, a dramatic shift from February that complicates Vance’s standing as the presumed successor to President Donald Trump in 2028.
Vance received 36% support in the latest University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll, while Rubio reached 26%. The result represents a major change from the university’s previous survey in February, when Vance led Rubio 53% to 7%, a 46-point advantage.
Although Vance remains the clear leader in the hypothetical contest, Rubio’s gain suggests the Republican field may be less settled than it appeared earlier in the year. New Hampshire has held the nation’s first Republican presidential primary for roughly a century, giving early polling in the state added attention even though the 2028 campaign is not expected to begin in earnest until after this fall’s midterm elections.
Vance has long been viewed as the most likely political heir to Trump, who is barred from seeking another term. As vice president, Vance has maintained close ties to the MAGA and America First coalition that helped return Trump to the White House, giving him an early organizational and ideological advantage over potential rivals.
Rubio, however, has steadily increased his visibility through his work as secretary of state. His role in the U.S. operation in Venezuela and the continuing war with Iran has placed him at the center of major foreign policy decisions, expanding both his responsibilities and his exposure to Republican voters.
That rise has begun to appear in national polling and surveys conducted in other early-voting states. Rubio also finished a close second to Vance earlier this year in the 2028 Republican presidential nomination straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference, commonly known as CPAC.
Rubio previously sought the Republican nomination in 2016, when he was one of more than a dozen candidates defeated by Trump in a deeply contested primary. He later returned to the Senate and became one of Trump’s senior foreign policy officials, positioning him differently within the party than during his first presidential campaign.
The latest New Hampshire poll showed the rest of the possible Republican field well behind Vance and Rubio. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley each received 8% support. Paul, who also ran for president in 2016, has been considering another campaign, while Haley finished second to Trump in the 2024 Republican primary.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who challenged Trump for the nomination in 2024, received 6%. Every other candidate tested in the survey drew 4% or less.
The results leave Vance in first place but show a far more competitive race than the one measured five months earlier. His support fell from 53% to 36%, while Rubio climbed from 7% to 26%, producing one of the largest shifts yet in early polling of the potential 2028 Republican field.
With no formal campaign underway, the numbers remain preliminary and could change significantly before voters begin making decisions. The latest survey nevertheless indicates that Rubio is emerging as Vance’s strongest potential rival and that Trump’s political coalition may not automatically unite behind a single successor.
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