The two largest reservoirs on the Colorado River have fallen below their previous 2023 low, increasing pressure on seven Western states to accept major water-use reductions under an expected federal management plan.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Lake Mead and Lake Powell have fallen to their lowest combined storage level on record, marking a new stage in the Colorado River crisis as federal officials prepare a long-term strategy for managing increasingly severe water shortages across the West.
Researchers said the reservoirs now hold less water together than at any previous point in the historical record, dropping below the former low reached in 2023.
“It’s a hell of a milestone,” Jack Schmidt, director of Utah State University’s Center for Colorado River Studies, told the Los Angeles Times. “Really a teaching moment to all of us of the severity of the crisis.”
Lake Mead, located near Las Vegas and considered the nation’s largest reservoir, is approximately 27% full.
Lake Powell, which straddles the Utah-Arizona border, has fallen to roughly 23% of its total capacity.
The decline at Lake Powell is particularly significant because the reservoir is approaching the elevation at which Glen Canyon Dam could lose its ability to generate hydroelectric power.
If the reservoir falls another 33 feet, water would no longer reach the dam’s power intakes.
That threshold would threaten electricity production and further complicate the movement of water through the Colorado River system.
Schmidt and other researchers warned that storage levels will probably continue declining and setting new records until winter snow begins replenishing the river and its reservoirs.
This year’s Rocky Mountain snowpack was the smallest on record, sharply limiting the runoff that normally feeds the Colorado River during spring and early summer.
“If you need any more evidence that we have a five-alarm fire, here it is,” Schmidt said.
The river supports approximately 35 million people across the United States and Mexico and supplies irrigation water to about 5 million acres of farmland.
Its water is shared among California, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico, as well as northern Mexico.
The system also supports major cities, agricultural regions, tribal communities, wildlife habitat, recreation and power generation.
Since 2020, Colorado River flows have averaged approximately 32% below historical levels as persistent drought, declining runoff and continued demand have depleted storage.
The river’s condition reflects both long-term aridification and the challenge of distributing more water on paper than the system reliably produces.
Water rights and operating rules were developed during a wetter period, leaving states and federal agencies with difficult decisions as supplies decline.
The National Weather Service is forecasting above-average precipitation across much of the Southwest through October as El Niño conditions develop.
That forecast could offer some short-term relief, but officials do not yet know whether the additional precipitation will fall in locations or amounts capable of meaningfully improving the reservoirs.
Summer and fall rainfall can help soils, vegetation and local water supplies, but the Colorado River depends heavily on high-elevation winter snowpack and the runoff it produces.
A single wetter season would also be unlikely to erase years of accumulated losses at Mead and Powell.
The record low comes as the Trump administration prepares to announce a 10-year plan governing the river’s operations and water allocations.
The anticipated strategy is expected to address how shortages will be shared among states if reservoirs continue falling.
Schmidt said the seven basin states must either negotiate substantial reductions together or face a federal decision.
The states need “to agree together, or accept a mandate from the federal government, that major reductions have to be implemented right now,” he said.
Negotiations have been complicated by a divide between the lower basin and upper basin states.
California, Arizona and Nevada make up the lower basin, while Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico form the upper basin.
Each group has argued that the other should bear a greater share of the reductions.
The upper basin states generally contend that their water use is already constrained by naturally varying river flows and that the lower basin consumes more water than the river can sustain.
The lower basin states argue that shortages should be distributed across the entire system rather than imposed mainly on those located downstream.
According to the Los Angeles Times, the lower basin states have proposed voluntary conservation totaling approximately 1.6 million acre-feet annually during the next two years.
An acre-foot is the amount of water required to cover one acre of land one foot deep and is commonly used to measure large-scale water supplies.
One acre-foot generally provides enough water for several households for a year, depending on local usage.
Federal officials have reportedly considered mandatory reductions approaching twice the amount proposed by the downstream states if the seven-state negotiations fail.
Such reductions could have significant consequences for cities, irrigation districts, tribal water users and agricultural producers.
The scale of the potential cuts reflects the gap between existing demand and the river’s reduced flow.
Jennifer Pitt, director of the National Audubon Society’s Colorado River program, said the administration appears to be attempting to create conditions for a renewed agreement among the states.
Federal officials appear to be “trying to put some structure in place that pushes the states to try again, maybe with a slightly different playing field, to see if the states can come to some sort of agreement,” Pitt told the newspaper.
The Bureau of Reclamation is continuing to finance conservation programs while negotiations proceed.
Those efforts include payments to municipal water agencies, farmers and ranchers that reduce consumption and leave more water in the reservoirs.
Compensated conservation has become an important short-term tool for slowing the decline of Mead and Powell.
Farmers may be paid to temporarily leave fields unplanted, switch crops or adopt more efficient irrigation systems.
Cities and water districts may receive support for recycling, conservation incentives, leak reduction and other programs intended to lower withdrawals.
Those efforts can preserve storage, but they do not eliminate the need for durable operating rules governing shortages.
Temporary payments also depend on continued funding and voluntary participation, while the underlying river system remains substantially drier than the conditions used to establish historic allocations.
Lake Mead and Lake Powell serve as the principal storage reservoirs for the Colorado River Basin.
Lake Powell stores water from the upper basin and releases it through Glen Canyon Dam toward Lake Mead.
Lake Mead then supplies water to lower basin users, including major metropolitan areas and agricultural districts in Arizona, Nevada and California.
As both reservoirs decline together, the system loses its ability to absorb dry years and maintain dependable deliveries.
Falling water levels also reduce hydropower generation because less water pressure is available to move turbines.
If levels fall far enough, dams can approach “dead pool,” the point at which water can no longer pass through normal outlets by gravity.
Officials have previously taken emergency steps to protect critical elevations, including adjusting releases and preserving water at Lake Powell.
The new combined record indicates that those interventions have slowed but not reversed the broader decline.
The reservoirs are expected to fall further before winter, making the next snow season especially important.
Even a strong snowpack, however, would not resolve the conflict over long-term demand.
The seven basin states must determine how to operate the river under conditions that may remain substantially drier than the 20th-century average.
The Trump administration’s forthcoming plan could define those rules for a decade, affecting water deliveries, conservation requirements and reservoir operations throughout the region.
A negotiated settlement would allow the states to retain more control over how reductions are distributed.
Failure to reach an agreement could lead the federal government to impose cuts, potentially triggering legal challenges among states, water districts, tribes and other users.
The crisis also carries national economic implications because Colorado River water supports some of the country’s most productive agricultural areas.
Reductions could affect the production of vegetables, fruit, livestock feed and other commodities, potentially increasing costs or forcing changes in where and how crops are grown.
Urban users face their own challenges as growing populations compete for declining supplies.
Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tucson, Los Angeles, San Diego and other communities have invested heavily in conservation, reuse and alternative supplies, but they still depend on the river.
The continued decline of Lake Mead and Lake Powell shows that existing measures have not been sufficient to restore balance across the entire basin.
The immediate objective is to prevent reservoir levels from reaching thresholds that would disrupt power generation or water delivery.
The longer-term challenge is to reduce overall consumption enough to match the amount of water the river can reliably provide.
Researchers and water managers now view the record low as evidence that decisions postponed during earlier negotiations can no longer be delayed.
With the reservoirs at approximately one-quarter of capacity and another seasonal decline expected, the seven states face increasing pressure to accept reductions before federal officials impose them.
The coming 10-year plan will determine whether the basin continues relying primarily on voluntary conservation or moves toward mandatory, enforceable cuts.
Until new operating rules are established and sustained precipitation returns, Lake Mead and Lake Powell are likely to remain visible measures of the widening gap between the Colorado River’s available supply and the demands placed upon it.
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