Northern Israel Turns Against Netanyahu as Security Fears and Lebanon Conflict Reshape Election Battle

By Elsie Kamsiyochi

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing growing political pressure in northern Israel, where residents living under the constant threat of Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks are increasingly abandoning his ruling Likud party ahead of the country’s next general election.

A newly released survey conducted by Agam Labs at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem indicates a sharp decline in support for Netanyahu among voters in Israel’s north, a region that has borne the brunt of cross-border hostilities with Hezbollah since the outbreak of wider regional conflict. The findings underscore the political challenges confronting Netanyahu as he attempts to balance domestic demands for stronger military action with international diplomatic efforts aimed at reducing tensions.

The poll, conducted in May and shared with Reuters, suggests that support for Likud has fallen dramatically in northern communities, where many residents believe the government has failed to eliminate the threat posed by Hezbollah. The decline is particularly significant because the northern region represents roughly one-fifth of Israel’s electorate and has historically been an important source of support for Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition.

The political fallout comes at a sensitive moment. A ceasefire agreement announced between Israel and Lebanon has raised hopes of reducing violence along the border, but many residents in northern Israel remain skeptical that any truce can provide lasting security. Instead, many voters argue that military operations should continue until Hezbollah’s military capabilities are significantly weakened or dismantled altogether.

For communities such as Kiryat Shmona, located near the Lebanese border, security concerns dominate everyday life. Residents have spent months coping with repeated air raid sirens, rocket fire, and drone attacks. Many describe living in a state of constant uncertainty, with only seconds to seek shelter when alarms sound.

Since Hezbollah began launching attacks into Israel following the October 7, 2023 Hamas assault, the border region has experienced near-continuous instability. Israel responded with extensive military operations in Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah positions and leadership figures. Although previous ceasefire agreements temporarily reduced hostilities, renewed fighting erupted after Hezbollah resumed attacks during the broader conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States.

The continuing violence has left deep scars on both sides of the border. According to Israeli security assessments, dozens of civilians have been killed in northern Israel by Hezbollah attacks since October 2023. Lebanese authorities, meanwhile, report thousands of deaths resulting from Israeli military operations, though official figures do not distinguish between civilian casualties and combatants.

Many northern voters now believe Netanyahu has not gone far enough in confronting Hezbollah. Some accuse him of yielding to pressure from Washington, particularly from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has been pushing for broader regional de-escalation and a potential diplomatic framework involving Iran.

The perception that Israel’s military strategy is being influenced by international considerations rather than domestic security concerns has become a major issue in the region. Critics argue that repeated ceasefire arrangements have allowed Hezbollah to survive and reorganize, while supporters of diplomacy maintain that prolonged conflict risks further regional escalation.

Political opponents have moved quickly to capitalize on the growing dissatisfaction. Former military chief and opposition figure Gadi Eizenkot has emerged as one of the most vocal advocates for a tougher approach toward Hezbollah, arguing that Israeli forces should retain complete freedom of action against the group wherever it operates. His message has resonated with many northern residents who feel abandoned by the government and want stronger guarantees of security.

The poll highlights the scale of Netanyahu’s challenge. Support for Likud in northern Israel has reportedly fallen to around 23%, significantly below the level achieved in the 2022 election. The broader right-wing coalition has also seen support decline in the region, while opposition parties have gained momentum. Researchers described the shift as one of the most significant political changes observed since the last election cycle.

Beyond security concerns, many residents point to economic and social damage caused by the prolonged conflict. Once known for tourism, agriculture, and thriving local businesses, towns near the border have struggled as thousands of residents temporarily relocated and commercial activity slowed dramatically. Empty streets, shuttered shops, and declining local investment have become visible symbols of the war’s impact.

The growing frustration has created an opening for opposition parties seeking to challenge Netanyahu’s long-standing political dominance. Opposition leaders have increased their visits to northern communities, promising stronger action against Hezbollah and greater support for affected residents. Netanyahu, by contrast, has faced criticism for spending relatively little time in the region during the campaign season.

With national elections expected by October, the battle for northern Israel could prove decisive. The region’s voters appear increasingly willing to reconsider long-held political loyalties, and their demands for security, stability, and decisive leadership are likely to shape the broader national debate in the months ahead.

As ceasefire negotiations continue and military operations remain ongoing, Netanyahu finds himself navigating one of the most difficult political moments of his career. The outcome may determine not only the future direction of Israel’s Lebanon policy but also whether one of the country’s longest-serving leaders can maintain his hold on power amid growing public dissatisfaction.

Source Reuters