Scientists warn that rapidly warming Pacific waters and a massive North Pacific marine heatwave could intensify El Niño conditions, threatening food production in major crop-growing regions.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
A powerful El Niño event projected for 2026 is raising concern among climate scientists, food analysts and international agencies because of its potential to disrupt global agriculture, intensify drought and drive up food prices.
Forecasters have warned that warming across the Pacific Ocean could fuel what some experts are calling a “Godzilla El Niño”, a major climate event that could affect fisheries, ecosystems, rainfall patterns and food production well into 2027.
The concern stems from two developments occurring at the same time: rapidly warming equatorial waters in the Pacific, where El Niño events form, and an unusually large marine heatwave stretching across the North Pacific. Scientists say the interaction between those conditions could strengthen the coming El Niño and increase the risk of severe global impacts.
“The chance of an El Niño event emerging by July is now over 80 percent, which will likely make 2026 one of the hottest years on record,” according to one analysis. “At the same time, an exceptionally large 9,000-mile marine heatwave has been forming in the North Pacific since the end of 2025. These extreme warming events are now evolving together across the Pacific. Scientists are increasingly concerned that the warm water will fuel a ‘super’ or ‘Godzilla’ El Niño, potentially prolonging marine heatwaves, disrupting fisheries and ecosystems, and intensifying global climate impacts well into 2027.”
The North Pacific marine heatwave has drawn particular attention because of its size. At the same time, the equatorial Pacific is projected to reach temperatures rarely seen in the historical record. Ocean temperatures in the region where El Niño forms were forecast to reach 3 degrees Celsius above average, a level that experts said has not been recorded since at least 1877.
“The temperature of the ocean in the equatorial waters where these El Niños form was predicted to be 3 degrees Celsius above average,” the report stated. “Experts are saying that this is a level of heat in the Pacific Ocean that hasn’t been recorded since 1877.”
That comparison has heightened concern because the 1876-78 El Niño coincided with one of the worst food disasters in modern history. Scientists have linked that event to the Great Famine, which affected parts of Asia, Brazil and Africa and killed tens of millions of people.
A team of scientists previously said the 1876-78 famine killed more than 50 million people, according to Daily Maverick.
“The 1876-78 Great Famine impacted multiple regions across the globe, including parts of Asia, Nordeste [Northeast] Brazil, and northern and southern Africa, with total human fatalities exceeding 50 million people, arguably the worst environmental disaster to befall humanity,” the scientists said in a paper presented at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union.
The late 19th-century famine killed about 3% of the global population at the time. A similar share of today’s population would represent about 240 million people.
More recent El Niño events also caused major disruptions. The 1982-83 El Niño, described as the strongest of the 20th century, brought severe weather across multiple continents, including flooding in the American Pacific and southern United States, drought in northeastern Brazil and Indonesia, and a mild winter across parts of Europe, Asia and North America, according to The Conversation.
“In 1982–83, the most intense El Niño of the 20th century caused extreme weather events throughout the world, including floods in the American Pacific and in the southern United States, and droughts in north-eastern Brazil and Indonesia,” the report stated. “It also caused a very mild winter in the mid-latitudes of Europe, Asia and North America.”
That period overlapped with famine in Ethiopia from 1983 to 1985. The famine affected 7.75 million people, killed an estimated 300,000 to 1.2 million, internally displaced 2.5 million people, forced 400,000 people to flee as refugees and left nearly 200,000 children orphaned, according to historical accounts.
The latest forecasts suggest the coming El Niño could bring drought to several major agricultural regions. Areas at risk include southern Africa, Australia, India, the Indochina Peninsula and Oceania, while Southeast Asia could see above-average rainfall and flooding, according to an MSN report.
“Easterly trade winds across the equator, meanwhile, are replaced by bursts of westerly surface winds,” the report stated. “Those pile warm waters against the western shores of South America. That suppresses cool ocean upwelling from below, which is needed to bring nutrient-rich waters closer to the surface. That starves baitfish and means poor fish harvests for dependent countries in Central America and the Pacific coast of South America.”
“Drought, meanwhile, is likely in southern Africa, Australia, India, the Indochina Peninsula and Oceania. Southeast Asia, meanwhile, could see above-average rainfall and more flooding,” the report continued.
The United States could also face agricultural stress. Forecasts cited in the report indicate the Midwest may see below-normal rainfall and temperatures 3 to 6 degrees above normal, creating difficult growing conditions in a region central to U.S. wheat, corn and soybean production.
Farmers are already facing higher diesel prices, rising fertilizer costs and prolonged drought conditions. The World Meteorological Organization has warned that the expected El Niño could further strain the global food system, according to Reuters.
“The World Meteorological Organization is warning that this summer’s El Nino event could be the worst yet,” the report stated. “Compounded by fertiliser shortages, inflation and rising oil prices, these shocks threaten to push an already fragile food industry to the brink, and the impact will land squarely in consumers’ shopping baskets.”
The risk is magnified by the concentration of global food production in a small number of staple crops. Wheat, rice, maize and soybeans account for more than 60% of global calories. Analysts warn that a severe El Niño could trigger simultaneous crop failures across continents, limiting the ability of one region to compensate for losses in another.
“Global food security relies heavily on a highly concentrated supply chain,” the Reuters report stated. “Just four crops, wheat, rice, maize and soybeans, account for over 60% of global calories. While localised regional shortages are typically balanced by other markets, a global El Nino triggers teleconnections: simultaneous weather anomalies across different continents that cause correlated crop failures. And this systemic drop in supply leads to direct price increases at supermarket tills.”
Because food demand does not fall sharply when prices rise, even relatively small supply losses can cause large price increases. Reuters reported that scenarios for this El Niño point to possible price shocks of 10% to 50% across core commodities, with rice, palm oil, sugarcane and coffee potentially facing increases of 50% to 100% or more.
“Because demand for basic staples is inelastic – consumers must eat regardless of cost – even small supply deficits cause disproportionate price surges,” the report stated. “Scenarios for this El Nino indicate price shocks of 10% to 50% across core commodities, with highly exposed crops, including rice, palm oil, sugarcane and coffee, potentially experiencing surges of 50% to 100%, or more.”
“In the past, price shocks struck one commodity at a time,” the report continued. “A simultaneous, cross-category surge means consumers will be hit harder and broader than ever before.”
The warning comes as global acute food insecurity is already at record levels. A severe El Niño could deepen shortages in vulnerable countries while increasing costs for consumers in wealthier nations.
The final impact will depend on how the Pacific warming pattern develops, how long the marine heatwave persists and how major crop regions respond during the growing season. But forecasters and food analysts say the convergence of ocean heat, high input costs, inflation and fragile supply chains makes the 2026 El Niño a major risk for global food production.
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