Tariffs, fertilizer costs, bankruptcies and export disruptions are fueling frustration among Midwestern farmers who strongly backed President Donald Trump in 2024.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Economic pressure across the farm belt is creating a political test for Republicans as Midwestern farmers confront higher operating costs, shrinking export markets and uncertainty tied to tariffs and the war with Iran.
Farmers remain one of the GOP’s most important voting blocs. President Donald Trump carried all but 11 of the nation’s 444 farming-dependent counties in 2024, according to a Wednesday report by The Hill. But recent surveys show growing unease among agricultural producers as costs rise and trade disruptions continue ahead of November’s congressional elections.
A Farm Futures Q1 survey found farmer confidence in Trump fell 10 points from the previous quarter. The decline comes as many producers continue to support the president while expressing concern over the financial condition of their operations.
Marc Short, former chief of staff to Vice President Mike Pence and chairman of Advancing American Freedom, warned that Republicans risk political consequences if they dismiss those concerns.
“President Trump’s trade policies have punched farmers in the mouth, and this time there’s no global pandemic to blame,” Short wrote in a Washington Post opinion piece published Monday. “Republicans who continue to ignore this reality do so at their peril.”
Fertilizer prices are among the sharpest concerns facing farmers. A recent survey found that 70% of farmers said they cannot afford all the fertilizer needed for their operations, The Hill reported.
Financial stress is also showing up in farm closures and bankruptcy filings. About 15,000 farms closed in 2025, according to industry data. Farm bankruptcies rose 46% last year after a 55% increase in 2024, and reports indicate filings were up roughly 70% through May.
Foreign retaliation to U.S. tariffs has added another layer of difficulty. After the Trump administration imposed broad import duties last year, trading partners responded with tariffs of their own. Canada, one of the United States’ largest trading partners, saw consumer boycotts of some American products, while U.S. agricultural exports to Canada fell by more than $1 billion.
Republican strategist Ryan Horn said the pressure is being felt across rural communities.
“Farmers are frustrated, ag leaders are frustrated,” Horn told The Hill. “They’re frustrated with these high costs. They’re frustrated with the low commodity prices. It’s making their lives more difficult. It’s making it hard to turn a profit.”
Horn said tariffs have reduced foreign demand for major exports, including corn, soybeans and other grains, while also raising the price of fertilizer and farm equipment.
Still, he said it remains uncertain whether frustration over the economy will lead farmers to vote against Republican candidates.
“Will they cross parties in large numbers to vote for someone from the other party? That’s the big question,” Horn said.
The issue is becoming more visible in states with competitive races. In Nebraska, independent candidate Dan Osborn is seen by Democrats as a possible threat to Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts. In Iowa, Democrats are targeting the governor’s office and the Senate seat held by Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.
Iowa Republican Party Chairman Jeff Kaufmann acknowledged the strain caused by tariffs but said farmers understand the administration’s broader approach.
“I’m not trying to dodge the fact that the tariffs hurt. What I am trying to tell you is we get it, our farmers get it,” Kaufmann said, according to Bloomberg. “My job is to keep the Trump voters voting for us and keep reminding people that things take time.”
The Trump administration has taken some steps to ease pressure on agricultural producers. On Monday, Trump signed a proclamation lowering tariffs on certain aluminum and steel products, including some agricultural equipment, from 25% to 15%.
Trump is also scheduled to visit Wisconsin on Friday to promote his rural agenda and highlight support for farmers.
The administration has continued direct-assistance programs as well. In December, Trump announced $12 billion in bridge payments for farmers affected by market disruptions.
Despite those efforts, survey data show many farmers remain under pressure. An April survey found that 94% of farmers said their financial condition had either worsened or remained unchanged from a year earlier.
The combination of tariffs, high input costs, bankruptcies and declining export demand has placed farm policy back at the center of the midterm debate. For Republicans, the challenge is whether longstanding rural loyalty can withstand the financial strain now facing producers across the Midwest.
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