Senior U.S. officials said the Trump administration is using sanctions and planning exercises to prepare for the possibility that Cuba’s communist government could face severe unrest as early as this summer.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
The Trump administration is preparing for the possibility that worsening conditions in Cuba could trigger major instability on the island as early as this summer, according to a report citing senior U.S. officials.
Officials told Axios that the administration is developing contingency plans, including possible military responses, while continuing to apply economic pressure on Havana. President Donald Trump has not authorized an invasion of Cuba, and officials said the current strategy centers on weakening the Cuban government through sanctions while leaving open the possibility of a peaceful political transition.
“The best way to describe it is ‘accelerationism,’” one senior administration official told Axios, referring to a strategy aimed at hastening political or social collapse.
“But we don’t want to kill off the regime just yet,” the official said. “There’s a method to this. It’s in stages.”
The administration’s planning is tied to concerns that Cuba’s economic crisis could intensify in the coming months. Officials cited extreme summer heat, power outages and food spoilage as factors that could increase public anger and lead to street protests.
“It’s going to be hot. People won’t have electricity. Food spoils without refrigeration. People get angry. They can take to the streets,” one source told Axios.
The administration’s early Cuba strategy focused in part on Havana’s relationship with Venezuela, which has long provided Cuba with subsidized oil. After Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was seized in a U.S. raid Jan. 3, those oil shipments stopped, worsening Cuba’s economic situation, according to the report.
Last month, U.S. Southern Command held a multiagency tabletop exercise to examine how the United States could respond if instability in Cuba escalates. One official told Axios that “everything is on the table,” though officials emphasized that no invasion is currently planned.
Another Trump adviser said the president does not want a prolonged deployment and would not want “boots on the ground for more than 48 hours.”
The administration has also expanded its economic pressure campaign. On May 1, Trump signed an executive order imposing secondary sanctions on companies that do business with GAESA, the Cuban military-controlled business conglomerate.
Those sanctions prompted several foreign firms to suspend Cuba-related operations, including Canadian mining company Sherritt International and shipping companies CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd. Former Treasury Department official Max Meizlish told Axios the new sanctions approach marked “an entirely new ballgame.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has played a central role in the administration’s Cuba policy. Rubio announced sanctions against GAESA on May 7 and later highlighted the pressure campaign in a Cuban Independence Day message directed at Cuban citizens.
The Justice Department has also unsealed a federal murder indictment against former Cuban leader Raul Castro in connection with the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown.
Despite the administration’s pressure campaign, officials told Axios that the United States has not identified Cuban officials who could lead an interim government if the current regime falls. The report also noted that the U.S. embargo on Cuba is written into federal law, limiting Trump’s ability to normalize relations with a future Cuban government without congressional approval and democratic reforms in Cuba.
At the same time, the administration has continued sending humanitarian assistance to Cuba through nongovernmental organizations. Axios reported that the United States recently announced $100 million in aid intended for charities and religious groups rather than the Cuban government.
Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez Parrilla has accused the United States and Rubio of trying to shape public opinion to justify military intervention.
“The politics are complicated on both sides [of the Strait of Florida],” one U.S. official told Axios. “But we have time. The regime doesn’t.”
The report describes a U.S. strategy built around economic pressure, contingency planning and an expectation that Cuba’s domestic crisis could deepen during the summer months. Officials said the administration is preparing for potential unrest while stopping short of an approved military intervention.
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