By Elsie Kamsiyochi
Diplomatic efforts to end the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran appear to be gaining momentum, but American officials caution that a final breakthrough remains far from guaranteed. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday that while negotiations with Tehran have shown signs of progress, serious disagreements continue to prevent a lasting agreement.
Speaking after a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Sweden, Rubio acknowledged that discussions had moved forward but warned against assuming a deal was imminent. “There’s been some progress,” he said, emphasizing that while improvements had been made, significant work still remained. “We’re not there yet,” Rubio added, underscoring the fragile nature of the diplomatic process.
The renewed push for negotiations comes as the conflict between Washington and Tehran continues to disrupt global markets, raise fears of wider regional instability, and intensify pressure on world energy supplies. The crisis has been particularly damaging to the global economy after Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical shipping routes for oil and liquefied natural gas.
Major Disputes Continue to Stall Negotiations
Although diplomats from both countries have reportedly narrowed their differences, several key issues remain unresolved. Among the most contentious are Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium and Tehran’s continued control over the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States has strongly opposed Iran’s proposals concerning the strategic waterway, which typically carries nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas shipments. Since the beginning of the war, restrictions and closures in the strait have severely disrupted global energy supplies, helping trigger a worldwide energy crisis and driving oil prices higher.
Rubio repeated Washington’s position that Iran’s suggestion of introducing a tolling system for ships using the Strait of Hormuz is unacceptable. U.S. officials fear such measures could give Tehran enormous leverage over global trade and further destabilize international markets.
“We’re dealing with a very difficult group of people,” Rubio said, warning that if diplomatic efforts fail, President Donald Trump has made clear that alternative measures remain available. While the U.S. has not formally requested NATO military involvement in securing the waterway, Rubio stressed that contingency plans are being considered should Iran refuse to fully reopen the strait.
Regional Diplomacy Intensifies
As direct negotiations continue, regional powers are stepping up mediation efforts in hopes of ending the crisis.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi met Pakistani Interior Minister Syed Mohsin Naqvi in Tehran on Friday as Islamabad attempted to bridge differences between the two sides. Pakistan has increasingly positioned itself as a mediator, carrying messages and proposals between Washington and Tehran in an effort to prevent further escalation.
At the same time, Qatar has entered the diplomatic arena more actively. A Qatari negotiating delegation reportedly arrived in Tehran on Friday, coordinating closely with U.S. officials to help resolve major sticking points in the talks.
Qatar has previously played an important role in high-profile international mediation efforts, including negotiations between Israel and Hamas during the Gaza conflict. However, Doha had initially remained cautious about becoming deeply involved in the Iran crisis, especially after coming under attacks from Iranian missiles and drones earlier in the conflict.
Despite those tensions, Qatari officials now appear willing to play a larger diplomatic role as fears grow that prolonged instability in the Gulf could trigger deeper economic consequences worldwide.
Economic Fallout Deepens
The uncertainty surrounding negotiations continues to rattle global financial markets.
Oil prices climbed again on Friday as investors remained skeptical that Washington and Tehran were close to reaching a breakthrough. At the same time, the U.S. dollar hovered near a six-week high, reflecting investor concerns over the growing economic risks posed by continued instability in the Middle East.
Market analysts remain divided over the likelihood of a peace agreement. Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, expressed doubt that recent diplomatic activity necessarily means the two sides are significantly closer to resolving their differences.
The prolonged disruption has already placed additional strain on economies worldwide, with rising energy costs fuelling fears of inflation and slowing growth in many regions.
The Uranium Dispute Remains Central
Another major sticking point is Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile.
President Donald Trump recently stated that the United States expects to eventually secure control over Iran’s enriched uranium reserves, which Washington believes could be used to develop nuclear weapons. Tehran, however, continues to insist its nuclear programme serves peaceful purposes only.
Adding to tensions, senior Iranian sources told Reuters that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has reportedly ordered that Iran’s uranium stockpile must remain inside the country and not be transferred abroad — a stance that directly conflicts with U.S. demands.
Iran’s latest proposal to Washington reportedly includes several longstanding demands previously rejected by the Trump administration, including sanctions relief, compensation for wartime damages, access to frozen assets, reduced U.S. military presence in the region, and conditions related to control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Pressure Builds on Trump Administration
The crisis is also creating political challenges inside the United States.
With midterm elections approaching in November, President Trump faces increasing domestic criticism over rising fuel costs linked to instability in global oil markets. Public frustration over inflation and energy prices has contributed to declining approval ratings, increasing pressure on the White House to deliver a diplomatic solution.
Meanwhile, maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains sharply reduced. Before the conflict, between 125 and 140 commercial vessels passed through the route daily. Now, movement has fallen dramatically, with ships requiring authorization from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy before transit.
Iran said 35 commercial vessels, including tankers and cargo ships, passed through the strait over the last 24 hours after obtaining permission.
As negotiations continue, the outcome of U.S.-Iran diplomacy could shape not only the future of the Middle East conflict but also the stability of global energy markets and the wider world economy. For now, officials say progress has been made — but peace remains uncertain.
Source Reuters
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